With spring training getting underway, the 2018 fantasy baseball season is very nearly approaching. Each week, I will be evaluating one player’s stock for this year. This week, a former MVP candidate whose value has taken a hit from numerous injuries in recent years.
Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians
2017 statistics: .299/.357/.444, 9 HR, 11 SB
General Overview
From 2014-2015, Michael Brantley was one of the league’s best hitters, compiling nearly 1,300 plate appearances with a .319/.382/.494 line, good for a 142 wRC+. Ever since, however, myriad injuries have taken the shine off a stellar offensive player, as Brantley has managed only 418 plate appearances in the past two seasons. Fantasy owners have responded to the lack of volume, selecting him 56th on average among outfielders so far. Indeed, there is reason for concern about Brantley’s health, as he was forced to undergo postseason ankle surgery and may not be ready for the beginning of next season. That said, it is worth noting that all of Brantley’s underlying talent appears to remain, and Cleveland’s decision to exercise a not insignificant team option to retain Brantley suggests that the organization sees some reason to believe that he can return to health this season.
Underlying Metrics
While injuries have sapped Brantley of playing time in recent seasons, his on-field production has, on the whole, remained strong. His 2017 slugging percentage of .444 does not match up with the .494 mark that he managed over his two-year prime, so one may be inclined to believe that the injuries have negatively impacted his power output. However, his batted-ball data suggest otherwise. His average exit velocity last year remained within half a mile per hour of its 2015 level, and his expected weighted on-base average of .342, while down slightly from his .354 mark from three years ago, remains strong. While there is no publicly available Statcast data for 2014, Brantley’s strongest offensive season, his soft and hard contact rates from that year were almost identical with his rates from last year. While Brantley has not enjoyed the slight batted-ball boost that the league as a whole has managed since 2015, his contact quality has remained strong, despite his inconsistent playing time.
Brantley’s signature offensive strength, even beyond his power output, has long been his exceptional contact skills, and those, too, remain intact. Last season marked his sixth consecutive year with an in-zone contact rate north of 95%, a mark which ranked tied for fourth in the league. Among the top 30 players in zone-contact rate last year, only Joe Mauer, Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy and D.J. LeMahieu had higher average exit velocities, indicating the rare combination of plate coverage and batted-ball authority that Brantley remains capable of offering. His plate discipline was also as strong as ever, as he kept his out-of-zone swing rate below 25% yet again, a mark which he has reached in every season of his career. Even his purely physical tools remained; his maximum sprint speed of 26.6 feet per second was identical to his speed from 2015, and, despite that average speed, he retained his strong overall baserunning ability, going 11 for 12 in stolen base attempts. Coming off ankle surgery, it is impossible to know if his speed will remain intact in 2018, but it is Brantley’s bat, not his legs, that will be the motivating factor for any fantasy owner who takes a chance on him in drafts.
Injury Update
Brantley will not be a player on whom a story is written this spring proclaiming him to be in the best shape of his life, as he is still in the process of recovering from an October surgery that, at the time, was estimated to sideline him for four to five months. To that end, he appears to be on track, as the team released a statement on Thursday stating that he will be working his way into baseball activities over the next few weeks. That timetable leaves his Opening Day status clearly in doubt, although any in-season absence would seem to be a short one barring any setbacks. Of course, owners have been fooled by this routine before, so this news may be met with some skepticism. However, it is noteworthy that the Indians elected to exercise his $11 million team option for this season just after the surgery, bringing him back as the third-highest paid player on the club. The club is more familiar with the specifics of his injury than any media, of course, so their decision to exercise the option is encouraging, as they obviously believe that he remains capable of contributing a fair amount this season. That he has not suffered any setbacks since then is reason for further optimism. Even if Brantley requires an early-season DL stash, his offensive upside at full health is worth gambling on.
2018 Outlook
Brantley is a high-risk, high-reward player for 2018 and beyond. His established ceiling is enormous, and his underlying metrics from last year were not particularly far off from those previous heights. Unsurprisingly, his projections for next year are rather scattered. While Steamer, ZiPS, and PECOTA all expect him to post a line in the neighborhood of .290/.350/.460, his playing time projections vary widely, with ZiPS anticipating that he will take only 451 plate appearances compared to PECOTA’s estimate of 533. Based on his current draft position, even the low end of those playing time projections would make him worth grabbing, though, because he remains, by all indications, a stellar offensive performer.
2018 Player Profiles