Mick Ciallela’s Updated Top-400 Rankings for Fantasy Baseball

Some things have changed since I initially posted my top-400 rankings last month. MLB and the MLBPA ended their lockout, meaning that we will indeed enjoy a full 2022 season. Since then, player movement has been at a fast and furious pace. Trades have been made and free agents have been signed. There are still a few dominoes left to fall (ahem, Conforto), but for the most part, we know who will be playing where come Opening Day on April 7. Now that most of the dust has settled, it is high time for me to post an updated version of my rankings for the upcoming season. Along with the updated rankings, I wanted to post my rationale on some of the biggest risers and fallers over the past month. So, behold, enjoy, and let me know if you agree or disagree in the comment section below.

Mick Ciallela’s Updated Top-400 Rankings for Fantasy Baseball

Notable Risers in my Top-400

Mitch Garver, Catcher, Texas Rangers (from 269 to 205)

When I posted my initial rankings last month I noted that I was probably a bit low on catchers and pitchers in general. That may explain some of the bump that I gave Garver this go around. But the main reason I moved Garver up is that I really like the trade that sent him from Minnesota to Texas. Manager Chris Woodward has mentioned that he envisions Garver hitting in the top-four of the revamped Rangers lineup. Most of Garver’s plate appearances last season came outside of the top-four spots in the order, and only 20.2 percent of his plate appearances came in the top third of the Twins order. Getting a few extra plate appearances can go a long way, especially at the catcher position. I now have Garver as my overall C7, up from C9. I moved him slightly ahead of Tyler Stephenson and Keibert Ruiz.

Clayton Kershaw, Starting Pitcher, Los Angeles Dodgers (from 179 to 138)

Way back in the olden days of February 2022, rumors suggested that Clayton Kershaw could retire. Between that speculation and the concerns regarding his health, I was not particularly high on the former fantasy ace. But now that Kershaw is back with the Dodgers, I am a bit more willing to buy-in. Drafting Clayton Kershaw will require a bit of maintenance from a roster standpoint. You can no longer rely on the veteran to approach 200 innings. He hasn’t even pitched as many as 180 regular-season innings since 2015. However, starters are throwing fewer innings than ever, and that trend should only continue following a shortened Spring Training. Even 100 innings of Kershaw should be enough to stabilize your ratios a bit. I have him as a mid-SP4 in 12-team leagues.

Seiya Suzuki, Outfielder, Chicago Cubs (from 197 to 156)

Back in January, it was believed that Seiya Suzuki had four top suitors for his services – the San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, and Seattle Mariners. Gabe Kapler platoons like his life depends on it, and the Padres and Mariners have a lot of interchangeable pieces throughout their rosters. Luckily for fantasy purposes, Suzuki signed with Chicago.

The Cubs are not exactly rife with young talent, especially in the outfield. Outside of Ian Happ, there isn’t a ton to get excited about, and even he is not without his warts. Rafael Ortega enjoyed a bit of a breakout last season, but it is hard to project further upside for the 30-year-old. The same could be said for Patrick Wisdom, who has played the outfield on occasion. Clint Frazier is a wild card, and Jason Heyward is, well, Jason Heyward. Although I do give Heyward credit for becoming the first player in MLB history to play in 35 seasons before the age of 35. I feel like when he homered in his first career at-bat, we were talking about it in AOL chat rooms and chirping each other with the walkie-talkie feature on our Nextel phones.

Back to Suzuki. I do not expect him to approach the .317/.433/.639 triple-slash line he posted last season, but the Japanese star should get plenty of plate appearances in the middle of Chicago’s order. His power should translate well in the Majors, and I think he will provide a decent batting average as well. I now rank Suzuki as a solid OF4 for fantasy purposes which is about 10 spots higher in my outfield rankings than I had him a month ago.

Luke Voit, First Baseman, San Diego Padres (from 247 to 208)

What a long, strange trip it has been for Luke Voit over the past few years. Voit’s career blossomed following a July 2018 trade that shipped him from the Cardinals to the Yankees. Through the 2020 season, Voit hit .279 as a Yankee with 57 home runs and 147 RBI in just under 900 plate appearances. He led all of baseball with 22 homers during the shortened 2020 season and finished in the top-10 in the voting for that year’s American League MVP Award. But injuries and inconsistent play hampered Voit last year. His strikeout rate rose to over 30 percent and once New York acquired Anthony Rizzo last July, Voit lost a bit of playing time. Upon his return from the IL in early August, he struck out 38 times and grounded into nine double plays in just 105 at-bats.

The Yankees traded Voit to the San Diego Padres last week. With the advent of the designated hitter in the National League, Voit is the natural choice to fit that slot in San Diego’s lineup. His power stroke should fit in quite nicely in a Padres lineup that will be without Fernando Tatis Jr. for nearly half of the season. I had Voit just outside my top-25 first basemen when I posted my rankings back in February. He is still outside my top-20 at the position, but I think he is a solid CI choice if you miss out on some of the players who are multi-position eligible and being drafted in the 100-150 overall range. He has also proven to half massive upside if he can cut down on the strikeouts and return to his former glory, so the reward outweighs the risk at his current ADP.

Nelson Cruz, Utility, Washington Nationals (from 160 to 135)

Now that the ageless wonder that is Nelson Cruz can DH for all 30 teams, he will venture over to the National League for the first time in nearly two decades in the Majors. Since turning 40, all Cruz has done is hit 48 home runs while driving in 119 and hitting .275. Doubters will point out his age and the fact that he just .226 after being traded to the Rays midseason. But he hit better on the road (.241) than at home (.211), and wouldn’t be the first hitter to struggle to hit at the Trop (see Adames, Willy). Besides, he was hitting a robust .294 before the trade.

In Washington, Cruz will be hitting behind the human on-base machine known as Juan Soto. Soto has a .432 career on-base percentage in what amounts to three MLB seasons, or roughly a tenth of Jason Heyward’s career. Seriously, how is Jason Heyward 14 months younger than Jacob deGrom? Anyway, Cesar Hernandez is likely to man the leadoff spot in the nation’s capital. Hernandez has a healthy .345 career OBP and a walk rate just shy of 10 percent. And as much as the fantasy community has soured on Victor Robles over the years, him in the 9-hole is still better than a pitcher. Cruz should be able to approach 30 homers and 90 RBI if he gets around 500 plate appearances. If he was eligible at a standard position, he would be going much higher in drafts.

Notable Fallers in my Top-400

The notable fallers section will be a little lighter than the risers. I do not think I need to go into a ton of detail as to why I have dropped players such as Fernando Tatis Jr., Chris Sale, Jack Flaherty, or Josh Jung in my rankings. Still, there are a fair amount of players who I value a lot less than I did a few weeks ago. Let’s take a look at some of them.

Will Smith, Relief Pitcher, Atlanta Braves (from 98 to 250)

After saving 37 games for the World Champion Atlanta Braves, Will Smith is likely on the outside looking in for save opportunities following the team’s acquisition of former Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen. Smith has dropped so far down the rankings and in ADP that I believe he could become a value at some point. Jansen has had bouts with wildness as he has gotten older, and Smith has proven himself reliable when called upon. He may not approach double-digit saves, but relievers who pitch late in games and can strike hitters out have increased fantasy value as the game has evolved with how teams manage their bullpens.

Luis Arraez, Second Baseman/Third Baseman/Outfielder, Minnesota Twins (from 264 to 320)

Perhaps I was originally too high on Minnesota’s super-utility player. After all, I do have a special place in my heart for those who are eligible at multiple positions. However, there may be fewer holes to fill now that Alex Kiriloff is set to man left field and the team has signed shortstop Carlos Correa. I still suspect Arraez starts more often than not, but he could be a 75 percent player rather than an 85 percent player. That may not seem like a huge difference, but in leagues where you make changes once or twice per week, it could be a frustrating issue for fantasy managers to navigate.

On the flip side (and at the risk of parroting a “best shape of his life” narrative that is common this time of year), Arraez trained with Nelson Cruz in the offseason and appeared to have tweaked his batting stance a bit. Arraez has been a liability in the power department, to say the least. The 25-year old has just six Major League homers in nearly 1,000 plate appearances, and his flyball rate has been lower than 30 percent in each of his three seasons. A potential change in approach could increase his power. Or it could reduce his batting average, which has been his greatest asset in fantasy to date. I don’t hate Arraez as an endgame pick in drafts, but I am not as high on his as I have been in the past.

Lane Thomas, Outfielder, Washington Nationals (from 242 to 274)

I liked Thomas as a late-round flier who could leadoff for Washington and provide double-digits in homers and steals. That potential still exists, but I’m less bullish than I was earlier. With increased talk of Cesar Hernandez being the team’s leadoff hitter, it is becoming increasingly likely that manager Dave Martinez may drop Thomas down in Washington’s order. Of course, things change throughout the season and lineup spots are fluid. But the upside may be a bit capped compared to what it may have been over the winter.

Ty France, First Baseman/Second Baseman, Seattle Mariners (from 120 to 145)

Ty France was a bit of a breakout player last season for the upstart Mariners. The team made some bold moves to build on that and put a contender on the field. Before the lockout, they signed American League Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray to a free-agent deal and traded for Adam Frazier. Once business opened back up post-lockout, Seattle traded for Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez, formerly of the Cincinnati Reds. The upgrades are great for the Mariners’ chances to end their long playoff drought. However, with several players who can play multiple positions including Frazier and Abraham Toro, France may be relegated to first base.

I do not think that is a death knell to France’s value by any means. But he played 21 games at second base, five games at third, and 26 games at DH last season. I highly doubt that Seattle deploys him at multiple positions this season. So the question becomes whether he plays those 50 or so games at first, or whether he rests a bit more than he did a year ago. Again, we might be talking about five or 10 games throughout the season. This is not a situation to panic over, or a reason to sell France for pennies on the dollar. I just think his value is a bit lower than it was before the acquisitions of Winker and Suarez.