Welcome to David Mendelson’s Weekly Starting Pitcher Streamers for the week of April 11 – April 14.
We did it. We finally made it to baseball season. Gone are the days of the black clouds of a lockout hanging over us, our news feed being mostly injuries & uncertainties, and of course, having stats that don’t count. These past few days have been glorious and a reminder of just how much we’ve missed baseball. From the surprising debut of Tylor Megill to Seth Beer hitting a walk-off home run on National Beer Day, baseball is officially back! With that being said, let’s get to why you’re here and reading this article.
Sometimes, your draft doesn’t work out how you intended it to. Whether it be injuries, lack of performance, or maybe your draft was just awful. At some point, you’re going to need to pick up pitchers off the waiver wire and stream them (in other words pick them up for a start or two). This becomes crucial as hitting on the right pitchers consistently will help your ratios, while also potentially beating an opponent for those that play in H2H formats.
So how do we determine which pitchers to stream? Well, there are a lot of ways but I’ve found a few ways to be most effective. This can include looking at the trends of the opposing teams over recent periods of time, how they’re faring against certain handiness, and of course, how that streaming pitcher is currently performing.
I’m here to try and help you narrow it down to five names from all games Monday – Thursday every week, my goal all season being to provide you with the BEST pitching streamers each week to hopefully help you when you’re in a pinch. It’s important to remember that I won’t always be right (no one is), but I hope to provide you with winning streamers more often than not. The criteria for being in this article? The pitcher must be rostered in 50% or less of leagues on FantasyPros (the site being referenced for these articles).
This article will go out every Sunday morning so make sure to make necessary adjustments with postponements, starts skipped, IL stints, etc affecting the projected pitcher starting. The hope for these articles is to keep having more data that we can build off of as the season moves along.
With that being said, here are some factors that go into my streaming picks:
Percentage Rostered – Pitcher must be rostered in 50% or fewer according to FantasyPros to qualify for this article.
wRC+ of Opposing Team – wRC+ or Weighed Runs Created Plus, takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for important external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average and 150 would be 50 percent above league average. This is one of my favorite stats to look at when picking not just pitching, but hitting as well.
Home/Road ERA Splits – How a pitcher does at home versus how they do on the road. The biggest example of this is someone like German Marquez and how he pitches on the road compared to at Coors Field.
Other Analytics – Things like a pitcher’s swinging strike rate, K-BB ratios, ISO, & OPS are some of the other data that gets considered for each player.
Let’s take a look at my top pitching streamers for this week.
Top Pitching Streamers 4/11 – 4/14
Jesus Luzardo (24% Rostered) Monday @ LAA – Jesus Luzardo finally looked like the pitcher we were dreaming of him to be in Oakland this Spring. Luzardo pitched 11.2 innings allowing 9 hits and 2 runs (1 earned) with only 3 walks and 10 strikeouts. That led to opposing hitters batting .225 and Luzardo pitching to a sparkling 0.77 ERA. Luzardo had success with the increased velocity on his fastball (touched 99 this Spring) and his increase in usage of his curveball. The curveball especially gave hitters nightmares with multiple outings where it maintained an over 40% CSW.
Luzardo is someone I’m very intrigued by and I feel comfortable putting him out there in his first start against this Angels team.
Alex Cobb (45% Rostered) Tuesday vs WAS – Cobb looked like an entirely new pitcher with the LA Angels in 2021 than he did when he spent three seasons with the Baltimore Orioles. In one year, Cobb lowered his ERA by nearly three runs, his K/9 increased by 33% (6.1-9.5), and he lowered his HR/9 by nearly six. Cobb had the third-lowest HR/9 rate among starters with at least 90 innings last season and looked to truly begin to break out.
I expect the Giants to do to Cobb similar to what they did with Gausman and increase his sinker and split-finger usage even more than last season to increase his potential overall effectiveness. Add in the fact that he touched 97 mph in Spring and I don’t think he’ll make this article again all season as a streamer.
Matt Brash (24% Rostered) Tuesday @ CHW – This rookie looks exciting to watch, to say the least. Brash was absolutely filthy in spring training, allowing just one run on three hits and two walks, striking out 12 in 9 1/3 innings. This wasn’t anything new as he flashed his potential last year between High-A & Double-A where he threw 97 1/3 innings and posted a 2.31 ERA with 142 strikeouts (13.1 strikeouts per 9 innings) while walking 48. What’s even more impressive was that was just in his first full season with the Seattle Mariners organization.
Brash is mostly a two-pitch pitcher right now as he has a fastball that consistently sits in the high 90’s, and a great slider. He’s been working on a curveball but the pitch is far behind is other two offerings. There are concerns of him consistently throwing strikes with his high walk rates but he should be someone that’s great in this rotation this season and I’m excited to start him in his debut.
Justin Steele (19% Rostered) Wednesday @ PIT – Steele gives it all to opposing batters as this lefty comes at you with a high 90’s fastball that can move. In 69 innings last year, Steele flashed potential that earned him a spot in the rotation with a 4.26 ERA. While the control may not be fully there, his fastball was elite in the 93rd percentile in spin and had a barrel rate in the 82nd percentile. He also accumulated a 4.35 ERA over his last month of the season after an over 6.00 ERA the month before.
His expected numbers showed there was a better pitcher than we saw last season and I wouldn’t doubt it. After pitching three innings in Spring Training, allowing only three hits, zero runs, and three strikeouts, I’m looking for him to feast on his weak opponent on Wednesday in the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Cole Irvin (6% Rostered) Thursday @ TB – I will admit, there’s not much there in terms of his numbers last season. Irvin accumulated 178 1/3 innings pitch with a 133 WHIP & 4.24 ERA. What was troubling was only 125 K’s and 23 home runs allowed. That’s not good. This lefty doesn’t overwhelm you with velocity, as he averaged just 91 on his fastball last season. Irvin instead needed to throw a bunch of different pitches to various successes to confuse hitters and get them out.
Along with his slider and changeup that he should feature again with the success he had with them, Irvin has now incorporated a cutter. This was one he found NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes demonstrate in a Pitching Ninja video on Youtube. Adding the cutter has already helped Irvin find success in Spring and helped change his overall approach when facing hitters. On a day when many teams have off, Irvin could be a diamond in the rough here.
Make sure to follow me on Twitter @DMendy02 and tag me if I helped you strike gold with one of these pitching streamers. Good luck!