More baseball and data! Inject that into our veins. In last week’s buy or sell installment, we discussed Jordan Lyles, Sean Manaea, Tyler Wells, and Zach Eflin. This week, we’ll look at a couple of young arms with a veteran pitcher with injury concerns that blasted it out of the water with seven perfect innings. It’s a hefty one, so let’s dive in.
Buy or Sell – Daniel Lynch, Josiah Gray, Clayton Kershaw, and Brad Keller
Daniel Lynch (SP – KC)
After Daniel Lynch debuted in 2021, he’ll look to build upon the rookie season with a 5.69 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 17.7% strikeout rate, and 10% walk rate in 68 innings. Lynch typically relied on the four-seamer (40.5%), slider (28.7%), changeup (16.3%), and sinker (11.9%) in 2021. However, in Lynch’s first start in 2022, he threw the slider almost 40% of the time.
The slider performed well with a 38% Whiff% and 47% CSW%. Lynch’s overall 35% Whiff% and 36% CSW% looked solid if we look beyond the box score. Based on the four-seamer movement, it probably won’t have a high whiff rate. However, Lynch would benefit from lower the four-seamer usage or adjusting the profile since it resulted in a .385 BA, .581 SLG, and .428 wOBA in 2021.
Against the Cardinals, Lynch allowed 11 hard-hit batted balls, which isn’t great. Unfortunately, Lynch left a four-seam nearly down the middle, and Albert Pujols took him deep. Before that at-bat, Nolan Arenado crushed a changeup in the heart of the plate. With catcher Andrew Knizner, Lynch threw a slider down the middle. If Lynch locates those pitches better, he could’ve avoided at least one of those home runs.
Buy or Sell Lynch?
In 15-team redraft leagues, Daniel Lynch could be available on waivers. However, the Royals pitchers haven’t given us much confidence in recent seasons, so it’s fair to have skepticism on whether to buy or sell. Monitor the possible pitch mix change and if Lynch lowers the four-seam usage. It’s worth speculating on Lynch in 15-team leagues for a week or two if there’s a mini breakout.
Josiah Gray (SP – WSN)
In December 2021, I wrote about Josiah Gray as an exciting young pitcher with the two filthy breaking pitches. In Gray’s recent start against the Braves, he tossed five scoreless innings and allowed one hit and three walks with five punchouts. Throughout Gray’s two starts, the breaking pitches remain filthy, evidenced by the 41.2% Whiff% on the curve and a 58.3% Whiff% on the slider. Most of the analysis below includes data before Tuesday’s start against the Diamondbacks.
Against the Braves, Gray’s curve elicited an identical 36% Whiff% and CSW%. Although Gray only threw 11 sliders, it had a 50% Whiff% and 55% CSW%.
It’s early, but Gray’s curveball dropped about two mph with about 50 more RPM, yet six more inches of drop. We’ll see if that sticks because Baseball Savant shows Gray’s curve having above-average vertical movement in 2022. In 2021, Gray barely used the changeup (3.3%) and hardly used it in 2022 (5.6%), but the velocity and spin rates dipped on the changeup so far.
In the Nationals’ first game of the doubleheader, Josiah Gray performed as he allowed three hits, one earned run, and two walks with eight strikeouts in 5.1 innings. Before Tuesday, the Diamondbacks ranked 26th with a 77 wRC+ against righties, so Gray took advantage of a soft matchup.
Gray’s curve looked dominant with 75% Whiff% and 50% CSW%. He relied on the four-seamer and curveball for 88% of the pitches thrown. Gray’s overall 33% Whiff% and 36% CSW% aligned with the positive results.
During most of the at-bats, Gray seemingly attempted to locate the curve down in the zone with the four-seamers up high. After Gray’s outings, I’m monitoring Gray’s home run rate since he struggled with that in 2021. The home run he allowed to Daulton Varsho came on a four-seamer away that Varsho crushed to center field, so it’s positive to see him not leave it down the middle.
Buy or Sell Gray?
Before the season, I recommended buying rather than selling Josiah Gray’s skills from 2021. Two filthy breaking pitches with a Whiff% rate of 45%, plus a wOBA under .260 in 2021. Assuming the home run rate of 2.42 HR/9 in 2021 regresses more, let’s hope Gray improves the walk rate with the filthy stuff. Overall, there’s still unlocked potential with Gray in 2022 and beyond.
Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD)
In November 2021, the Dodgers didn’t offer Clayton Kershaw a qualifying offer. Then in March 2022, Kershaw signed a one-year deal worth $17 million. Shortly afterward, Kershaw self-reported himself as fully healthy heading into the season. However, the injury question marks for Kershaw kept some away from targeting him in redraft leagues, including myself.
In Kershaw’s first start, baseball Twitter exploded on Wednesday after he tossed seven perfect innings before the Dodgers removed him from the game. Whether you wanted to see Kershaw finish the game, no one denies Kershaw’s talent. Let’s examine whether to buy or sell after Kershaw’s first two starts.
In Kershaw’s first start of 2022, he relied on the slider (51%), four-seamer (33%), and curve (14%) against the Twins. That’s nearly identical to the 2021 numbers, with the slider at 47.6%, four-seam at 36.7%, and curve at 15.1%.
Like many other pitchers, Kershaw’s velocity dropped, and the spin rates also decreased. Kershaw’s slider, four-seam, and curve dropped over 120 RPM, but that’s not too surprising with the velocity dip. We could say it’s just one start, but the elite seven perfect innings extended the leash for Kershaw.
Against the Braves, Kershaw allowed six hits plus four earned runs with zero walks and seven strikeouts across five innings. Although the slider wasn’t as dominant, it still proved effective with a 35% Whiff% and 28% CSW%.
After four scoreless innings, the wheels fell off for Kershaw since he gave up all four earned runs in the fifth and sixth, including two home runs. With the two home runs, Kershaw left the four-seamer out in the middle of the plate for Ozzie Albies and Guillermo Heredia to crush. Unsurprisingly, two of the hardest-hit batted balls came via Albies and Heredia off Kershaw.
Buy or Sell Kershaw?
In Main Event leagues on NFBC, Clayton Kershaw held an ADP just outside the top 100 picks. That’s near Sean Manaea, Luis Garcia, and Eduardo Rodríguez amongst starting pitchers. Although Kershaw presented the most injury risk, he also possessed the longest track record and elite production on a per-inning basis. It’s not a bad idea to sell high on Kershaw. Or ride it out, especially if you drafted Kershaw later in drafts. Overall, the early season success for Kershaw fell within the typical range of outcomes, and let’s see how he holds up throughout the season.
Brad Keller (SP – KC)
Brad Keller followed up his six shutout innings with a second quality start against the Tigers. Some would argue that these two matchups against the Guardians and Tigers are easier. Against the Tigers, Keller allowed three hits, two earned runs, and two walks with five strikeouts across seven efficient innings with 86 pitches.
Keller once again relied on the slider (38%), four-seamer (31%), and sinker (21%). The overall 20% Whiff% and 26% CSW% didn’t look great, but Keller’s slider velocity remained over 1.5 mph from 2021 with a quality whiff rate.
Keller’s BABIP is low (.129), with a high strand rate at 90.9% through two starts. Given the career .294 BABIP and 72.9% LOB%, Keller probably won’t sustain the elite ratios moving forward. However, that’s not mind-blowing information.
Interestingly, Keller’s slider velocity gradually increased from 84.9 mph in 2019 to 84.6 mph in 2020, then to 86.1 mph in 2021. With the velocity changes, Keller’s spin rates didn’t change much, with a range of 2,510 RPM in 2019 to 2,590 RPM in 2020.
Throughout Keller’s career, the slider possessed above-average vertical and horizontal movement and the drop being most notable. Since 2018, Keller’s slider averaged over five inches more vertical movement than the average. However, Keller’s slider has dropped less in the small sample with a slight velocity increase. Keller’s sinker also has more drop so far in 2022.
Buy or Sell Keller?
At this point, Brad Keller isn’t available in 12-15 team leagues. However, two straight quality starts for a waiver wire pickup gives us more confidence to buy rather than sell Keller’s early-season success. Unfortunately, Keller lacks the strikeout upside, so we’re hoping he provides quality ratios moving forward with the potential to eat innings for quality starts. Ride Keller’s early-season success as a streamer.