There’s a tricky balance between patience and making roster moves, especially with the long season of fantasy baseball. We’re questioning whether to buy or sell a player’s skills, playing time, and other factors. One of the difficulties of fantasy baseball involves making informed decisions to project what’s the most likely outcome instead of expecting past results.
A few years back, I hurt my knee, which affected my ability to squat and do movements I enjoyed. After trying several rehab exercises with poor results in the same condition, I spent time with a friend/trainer who helped identify the issue (weak glutes). Go ahead and insert a joke here, but a similar process remains with fantasy sports. Fantasy baseball and life consist of making mistakes, learning from them, and making actionable changes. We’ll stop wasting time with goofy analogies and dive into this week’s buy or sell installment. You can find my past buy or sell articles here.
Buy or Sell – Taijuan Walker FOMO and Mitch White’s Sleeper Appeal
Taijuan Walker (SP, NYM)
After drafting Taijuan Walker in TGFBI, then cutting him after an injury, I regret that roster move. Walker missed a couple of weeks in April yet posted quality ratios on the season with a 2.86 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 78.2 innings. The 19.3% K% dropped from 22.3% in 2021, though the 7% BB% dropped from 8.4% (2021), translating into a mediocre 12.3% K-BB%.
On the positive end, the quality ratios with the .281 BABIP and 76.1% LOB% don’t scream regression. Walker has limited the home runs, evidenced by the 0.46 HR/9 and 5.9% HR/FB%, though those numbers should regress closer to the career 1.21 HR/9 and 12.7% HR/FB%.
With the lowered home run rates, Walker increased the GB% to 49.8% compared to 41.9% in 2021 and a career GB% of 43.7%. The sinker has generated a massive GB% at 74.1%, over 20 percentage points higher than the career rate.
The other notable offering that induces groundballs includes the splitter with a 74.7% GB%, 14 percentage points higher than the career average.
Walker’s Arsenal & Results
In 2021, Taijuan Walker typically relied on four pitches at a double-digit rate in the four-seam (35.5%), sinker (21.7%), slider (21.4%), and splitter (14.2%). However, Walker shifted towards three primary pitches in 2022, with his sinker usage at 8.8%. One of the reasons for that involves Walker increasing the splitter usage against left-handed hitters from 17.7% in 2021 to 30.9% in 2022.
Walker’s splitter and slider remain his two best pitches in SwStr%, evidenced by the 14.8% SwStr% on the splitter and a 12.6% SwStr% via the slider. The splitter and slider increased in SwStr% versus the career SwStr% on the split-finger at 12.8% and slider at 9.4%. Seeing the higher SwStr% on multiple pitches means to buy more than sell.
While Walker doesn’t have dominant SwStr% on those pitches, the batted ball results look decent with a .169 wOBA on the splitter and .296 wOBA on the slider. It’s a good idea for Walker to drop the sinker usage with a .349 wOBA in 2022, though it serves its purpose via groundballs.
Given the increased SwStr% on the splitter, Walker’s splitter drops five inches more versus 2021 with slightly above-average vertical movement. Interestingly, the splitter used to possess above-average fade (2.0 vs. Avg). However, the splitter break decreased by nearly three inches, translating into below-average horizontal movement. Walker’s splitter generating groundballs and eliciting whiffs makes it the perfect combination, adding to the interest in buying than selling.
Buy or Sell Walker?
Since I have FOMO with the positive results for Taijuan Walker, the gut feeling hints at buying more than selling in 2022. All kidding aside, the ERA estimators expect regression with a 3.10 FIP, 3.73 xFIP, and 4.03 SIERA. Seeing those ERA estimators aligns with the preseason expectations, though still decent ratios.
We should expect the home run rates to increase. However, maybe the increased GB% on the sinker and splitter remains legitimate, keeping the home rates down. The $8 RotoWire Earned Auction Values for Walker put him near Sean Manaea, Luis Garcia (HOU), Paul Blackburn, and Eric Lauer. Even if we bake in regression, keep relying on Walker in 2022, given the underlying metrics, plus five straight quality starts.
Mitch White (P, LAD)
As a hot waiver wire pickup last week due to Andrew Heaney hitting the injured list with Walker Buehler already on the IL, Mitch White steps up into a starting role. White made six consecutive starting appearances, though he never surpassed five innings of work. It’s a small sample of 34.1 innings in 2022, but White has a 3.93 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 22.8% K%, and 7.6% BB%. White posted similar numbers in 2021 with 46.2 MLB innings.
After generating 47.7% GB% in 2021, it dropped to 39.8% in 2022. White traded groundballs for more flyballs and line drives, which might be a concerning combination. The 9.3% SwStr% dropped from 10% in 2021, though not significantly. White’s overall GB% dropped due to the slider and curveball going from a 50% GB% or higher in 2021 to a GB% around 29-31%. Next, we’ll look at White’s arsenal to help decide whether to buy or sell.
White’s Arsenal & Results
Speaking of White’s slider (28.2%) and curveball (20.2%), he mixes the breaking pitches in with the four-seamer (47.7%), accounting for over 95% of the arsenal. White’s breakers remain the two best pitches for whiffs, evidenced by the 17.5% SwStr% on the slider and 10.4% SwStr% on the curve. Interestingly, the curve’s SwStr% remains identical, but the slider SwStr% dropped from 21.3% in 2021.
The batted ball results look solid, with a .210 wOBA on the slider and .303 wOBA on the curveball. It’s a small sample, but the results improved or maintained on White’s breaking pitches.
- 2022 Slider: .190 BA, .310 SLG, .210 wOBA
- 2021 Slider: .158 BA, .263 SLG, .204 wOBA
- 2022 Curve: .200 BA, .440 SLG, .303 wOBA
- 2021 Curve: .279 BA, .419 SLG, .299 wOBA
Again, small sample, but the results on the four-seamer regressed a bit, with a .330 wOBA in 2022 and .295 wOBA in 2021. Where we find added intrigue to buy instead of sell – the improved movement profiles on the slider and curve. The slider and curve added vertical drop, around three inches each, maintaining above-average movement profiles.
White’s slider and curveball decreased in velocity around two mph versus 2021, though slight, not significant spin rate changes. Part of explaining the movement and velocity changes involves the horizontal and vertical release point changes. It’s probably noise, but White’s average release extension dropped on nearly all pitches, meaning he’s releasing his pitches slightly farther away from the plate.
White has a higher vertical release point, though the horizontal release point is farther away from his midline on the breaking pitches and four-seamer.
Buy or Sell White?
White likely moves back to a relief role when Heaney and Buehler return. The Dodgers will probably limit White’s innings with around 90 IP in 2021 across the majors and minors. Initially, the Dodgers listed White to face the Rockies and Cubs for a two-start week. However, on Tuesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reported that Ryan Pepiot would start versus the Rockies. Maybe White goes in a follower role, and hopefully, it’s not an injury.
White’s projections via THE BAT account for the workload concern with 25 innings (10 G, 3 GS). Even with the IP concerns, White could provide value similar to Michael King or Eli Morgan, where it’s a reliever role with quality ratios. Buy White as a short-term streamer on the Dodgers, who rank first with 5.2 RS/G.