Don’t let the NFL steal the thunder on Christmas Day! The NBA has, and always will be the sport I correlate most with Christmas. We’ve got some great matchups to watch on this five game slate, so let’s dive in. With prop bets, we don’t need to wait for season-long storylines to play out. Every day is a new day. Fantrax wants to help you win a bit of money, so we will be giving you NBA Player Prop Bets every week. We’ll shy away from keying in on any particular sportsbook, as we know odds vary, and so do props. We’ll focus on our projections, and allow you to find your best odds. Let’s get into today’s props.
NBA Player Props for December 25
Joel Embiid, OVER 30 Points:
The Knicks and Sixers square off on the first game of the Christmas Day slate. All of Thibs’ teams tend to be well-rounded on the defensive end, but this Knicks team hasn’t rounded into form until recently. The Knicks are now 9th in the league in defensive rating, which is more their speed. Normally I wouldn’t want to target a player against a top ten defense, but there is no defense that can slow Embiid down. Further, the Sixers have the 4th ranked defense in the league, and both teams are ranked 19th or lower in the league for pace. When a defensive battle is likely, teams lean on their stars. Embiid has had 44, 22, and 28 points over his last three. We know he loves the big stage. I don’t think it’s crazy to expect 30+ from the big dog today. It’s not all that prudent though. Feel free to take better odds for OVER 22 points as well, if you like to bet on the safer side.
LeBron James OVER 40 Points+Rebounds+Assists:
The Lakers are back to being terrible. They had a brief run with success this season while AD, LeBron, and Russ were all healthy, but that was short-lived as Anthony Davis is now out indefinitely with a broken bone in his foot. As the Lakers take on the Mavs in the 2nd game of this slate, there is absolutely blowout risk. However, if there is anyone we can count on to perform when eyes are on them, it’s LeBron James. He eats up all the usage while he’s on the floor, as AD is hurt, and Russell Westbrook is coming off of the bench (while still receiving starter’s minutes). A 25 point, 10 rebound, 5 assist day is absolutely in the cards as LeBron chases down the all-time scoring lead. And that’s a conservative projection.
Jayson Tatum OVER 30 Points:
Ok this is the crown jewel of the slate. The Boston Celtics vs. the Milwaukee Bucks. The top two seeds in the East go head-to-head, in what could be a rematch for this year’s Eastern Conference Finals. If we’re lucky. Boston has the best offense in the league, and they are 8th overall in defense. Milwaukee’s defense has been powering them this year, as they are 3rd in the league, but 19th overall in offense. On paper, the Celtics should be able to handle the Bucks rather easily, but the games don’t get played on paper. I expect a close game. Even though the Bucks have an elite defense, there is simply no guarding Jayson Tatum. He’s not defendable. You can only hope he misses. In his last four games, he’s averaging 36.5 points per game. I know 30 points is a big number to bet, but that’s because we are mere mortals. To Jayson Tatum, dropping 30 points is just part of his routine. Make sure to tune into this matchup. You won’t regret it!
For more great analysis check out our full 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit!