We are still early in the MLB DFS season, so salaries can still be a little bit wonky as things even out at the beginning of the season. Can you explain why German Marques playing at Coors Field against a low-strikeout team like the St. Louis Cardinals has a higher salary on DraftKings than Yu Darvish or Zac Gallen against a strikeout-prone Milwaukee squad?
As these things settle out over the first month, we just take the good gifts we are given and try to differentiate in the right places to take down an MLB tournament or two.
If you have any thoughts or recommendations for how we can better cover MLB DFS in 2023, reach out to us on Twitter or send me a message (@CableBoxScore). I’m always happy to talk a little DFS throughout the day, and let’s win some slates together! Let’s start by looking at weather issues for Monday as well as the best hitting and pitching environments on the main slate today.
Your season-long league didn’t use Fantrax this season? Preposterous! Check out all that Fantrax has to offer and we think your entire league will want to make a change for next season.
MLB DFS Picks and Plays for April 10
Today’s analysis covers the eight-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel at 7:10 PM ET.
Weather Concerns:
- There are no significant weather concerns for this main slate
Best Hitters’ Parks:
- Coors Field
- Angels Stadium
Best Pitchers’ Parks:
- Oracle Park
- Citi Field
DraftKings Top Plays
High-Dollar Pitcher
Julio Urias ($9,400) vs. San Francisco Giants – Urias is quite a bit cheaper than Max Scherzer and Luis Castillo on Monday but gets upgrades all over the place. He moves from a hitters’ park at Dodger Stadium to Oracle Park which is the fourth-toughest park to hit home runs over the last three years. The Giants are also third in the league with a 28% strikeout rate over the season’s first 10 days.
Value Pitcher
Bryce Elder ($6,600) vs. Cincinnati Reds – Yes the park downgrade is a real thing, with this game moving to Great American Ballpark. But the Reds are 12th in the league in strikeout rate, and Elder had a 49% groundball rate in his first start of the season. This is a high probability for a win and he should be able to get through this below-average Reds’ lineup a few times.
High-Dollar Infielder
Paul Goldschmidt ($5,900) vs. German Marquez – German Marquez has struck out only 18% of right-handed batters over the last two seasons and allows a 45% hard hit rate to those batters. This is an absolutely huge spot for Goldschmidt even before you factor in the Coors Field variable. The Cardinals are projected for a massive 5.86 runs on Monday.
Value Infielder
Elehuris Montero ($3,100) vs. Steven Matz – Montero just keeps putting up fantasy points, with at least four+ DraftKings fantasy points in his last four games. Steven Martz allows a massive .205 ISO to right-handed batters over the last two seasons and Montero is making good contact right now.
High-Dollar Outfielder
Mike Trout ($6,100) vs. Patrick Corbin – What really do we need to know here? The greatest hitter of a generation against a pitcher who has given up a .382 wOBA to right-handed batters the last two seasons and strikes out only 17% of them. Trout’s wOBA against lefties the last two years? An astounding .451.
Value Outfielder
Alex Call ($3,000) vs. Jose Suarez – Coming off a Coors Field series, Call was on fire setting the table for 34 fantasy points over the last three games with 12 or more points in three of his last five games. Call has been getting on base against lefties at a massive clip, with a 13.8% walk rate against them. His $3,000 should be higher after the massive series he just finished.
Best DraftKings Stack
Los Angeles Angels vs. Patrick Corbin – The Angels at home are projected for more runs (5.97) than the Cardinals visiting Coors Field against a mediocre pitcher (5.83). Besides Ohtani, the Angels will go right-handed heavy against the abysmal lefty Corbin. Many will focus on Trout ($6,100), Ohtani ($6,100), and Taylor Ward ($5,300), but other righties such as Hunter Renfroe ($4,700), Anthony Rendon ($3,900), and Logan O’Hoppe ($3,500) are all in play in this pristine matchup.
FanDuel Top Plays
High-Dollar Pitcher
Max Scherzer ($10,100) vs. San Diego Padres – On FanDuel, Scherzer is cheaper than both Urias and Luis Castillo. The Padres have not been terribly scary yet, ranking just 20th in on-base percentage and 16th in slugging percentage in the early going. Scherzer is striking out 30% of batters with only a 5% walk rate through two starts.
Value Pitcher
Bryce Elder ($8,300) vs. Cincinnati Reds – Going up against one of the best 2023 offenses so far, the St. Louis Cardinals, Elder more than held his own with a 9.0 K/9 and just a 0.83 WHIP. Compared to DraftKings, the salary does not look great, but when you put him in context of other pitchers on FanDuel, the $2,000 discount from the top pitchers looks huge.
High-Dollar Infielder
Matt Olson ($4,300) vs. Graham Ashcraft – I know Ashcraft has some strikeout stuff, but Matt Olson is just playing on another level right now and has a .282 and a .363 wOBA against right-handed pitchers the last two seasons. Olson has 67 FanDuel fantasy points from April 5th thru April 8th.
Value Infielder
Corey Seager ($3.000) vs. Zack Greinke – Corey Seager has big numbers against right-handers over the last two years, including a .184 ISO, .332 wOBA, and a 10% walk rate. The no-shift rule is helping him this season and he is coming off back-to-back games with at least nine fantasy points. Seager is going to get the bat on the ball as Greinke has only struck out 10% of left-handers over the last two years.
High-Dollar Outfielder
Julio Rodriguez ($4,000) vs. Drew Smyly – Smyly is only striking out 20% of batters so far this year which is a good thing for a player like Rodriguez who has a career 29% strikeout rate against lefties. The .200 ISO and the .356 wOBA he displays against left-handed pitchers more than makes up for a strikeout we might get along the way. Opening Day is the only game where Rodriguez doesn’t have at least four FanDuel fantasy points.
Value Outfielder
Jurickson Profar ($2,800) vs. Steven Matz – That’s six straight games batting leadoff for Profar and now he has a weak, pitch-to-contact left-hander on Monday. Profar walks 12% of the time against them and has a contact rate of 84%. That’ll play when you are likely to get 5-6 plate appearances in Coors.
Best FanDuel Stack
Atlanta Braves vs. Graham Ashcraft – The Braves get a massive park upgrade moving to Great American Ballpark and apart from Ronald Acuna and Matt Olson, are all reasonably priced on this main slate. Austin Riley is $3,700 and everyone else on the team is $3,000 or less, including value lefty bats Sam Hilliard and Eddie Rosario. GABP allows 14% more home runs to lefties than any other park in the last three seasons. The Braves have one of the highest implied totals on the slate at 5.32 runs.