Wednesday’s MLB slate is a full one, consisting of 15 games. Most of the action will take place during the day. That means prices for these MLB player props may move throughout the morning. Make sure to shop around for the best possible price. Also, double-check lineups before locking in any plays for the day. Based on the matchups, there should be some spots we can take advantage of. Here are my favorite MLB player props for Wednesday, April 19.
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MLB Player Props for April 19
Tommy Edman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120, MGM)
Tommy Edman has seven hits as a right-handed hitter and seven hits as a left-handed hitter this season. Now, if you think that means he is the same hitter from either side of the plate, consider this. Edman has 56 plate appearances as a lefty this season and 10 as a righty. He has also homered and doubled as a right-handed batter, while he has yet to record an extra-base hit as a left-handed batter. These splits have been a theme throughout Edman’s career. His career slugging percentage is .515 as a righty compared to just .375 as a lefty. We are looking to take advantage of those splits today.
The Cardinals have only faced a left-handed starting pitcher three times this season. Edman has hit first or second in the lineup in all three games. I am expecting him to do so again on Wednesday. Not only should he hit toward the top of the order, but the Cardinals will be facing Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner is a shell of his former self these days. Right-handed batters slugged .512 against him last year and are slugging .532 against him so far this year. Edman has a good history against MadBum, with four hits in 11 at-bats, including two extra-base hits. He should be protected by Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, meaning Bumgarner will have to come after him. If he does, I expect Edman to get the better of this matchup.
Andrew McCutchen Over 1.5 Total Bases (-117, Caesars)
Andrew McCutchen should return to his regular spot in the three-hole for Pittsburgh on Wednesday after a day off. McCutchen is another player who has exhibited extreme splits in recent years against left-handed pitching. Since 2020, Cutch is slugging .531 versus lefties, compared to his .374 clip against righties. In that stretch, 50 of his 99 hits against left-handed pitching have gone for extra bases. That should play nicely into McCutchen’s matchup on Wednesday.
McCutchen will be facing Austin Gomber of the Colorado Rockies. Since going to Colorado, Gomber has allowed right-handed hitters to hit .277 and slug .504 in Coors Field. Of course, we cannot downplay the impact the ballpark should play here. Coors Field remains the best hitter’s park in all of baseball. McCutchen (like many others) has enjoyed quite a bit of success there in his storied career. He has a career batting average of .307 and a career slugging percentage of .542 in Colorado. I expect him to have another productive day at the plate and record at least two total bases in this matchup.
Three-Leg NO WIN Parlay: Levi Stoudt, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Kluber (-122, Caesars)
This is a fun way to incorporate multiple MLB player props into your portfolio without risking too much equity. This bet is for none of these three pitchers to record a win in their respective games.
The first two starters on this list feel like no-brainers to me. Levi Stoudt is making his Major League debut on Wednesday. Assignments don’t get much tougher than Stoudt’s projects to be, as he will face the Tampa Bay Rays. In addition to the difficult matchup, Stoudt has not thrown many innings in the Minors. Since coming over from Seattle, Stoudt has started 10 games in Cincinnati’s farm system. In those 10 starts, he has thrown just 45 innings and earned one victory. I would be shocked if he lasts five innings on Wednesday, much less if he picks up the victory.
Next, we have Madison Bumgarner. I addressed him briefly in discussing the Tommy Edman player prop but allow me to add this. Since signing with Arizona in 2020, Bumgarner has won just five of his 35 road starts. Sure, Arizona may have a better record than St. Louis does at the moment. But I still do not expect Bumgarner to be able to pitch well enough in this game to earn a victory. The problem we run into is that picking the duo of Stoudt and Bumgarner comes with a -223 price tag. We need to find a third pitcher to make this bet more palatable. There are a few candidates at similar prices, including Austin Gomber and Noah Syndergaard. I won’t talk you out of either of them, but I will go with Corey Kluber.
Corey Kluber has lost all three of his starts so far and currently sports a 6.92 ERA. In addition, his xERA and xFIP are north of 5.00. He is allowing a 52.6 percent hard-hit rate and has a minuscule 12.3 percent K-BB rate. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s starter, Joe Ryan, has been fantastic thus far in 2023. He has won all three of his starts and currently sports a 2.84 ERA. Ryan also has a 1.58 xERA and a 37.1 percent strikeout rate. If their first three starts are any indication, this is a decided mismatch in favor of Ryan and the Twins.