As we approach the summer months, the continued “early” struggles start to become season-long issues for many players. Those slow starts in April and May can be brushed off or shrugged at, but they become harder to overlook now that about 40% of the season is in the books. This marks a good time in the year to take a temperature check for your fantasy rosters in dynasty leagues.
Whether you’re buying or selling over the next few months, it’s important to maximize the value of your assets. Here, we’ll take a look at some starting pitchers that have stumbled early and how to gauge their dynasty value.
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Buy, Sell, or Hold These Pitchers in Dynasty Leagues
Pablo Lopez – Buy
Pablo Lopez’s Minnesota career was off to a great start; he allowed just five runs with a 33:6 K:BB through his first four starts. Now, he’s sitting on a 4.25 ERA across 78.1 frames. However, his 3.35 xERA suggests a return to his early-season form is on the horizon. He’s produced a 109 Pitching+, tied for fourth-best among all starting pitchers. While Lopez primarily relies on elite location, his velocity is up and he’s currently in the 95th percentile for whiff rate.
Even if the ERA stays slightly inflated, Lopez’s 21.7% K-BB% is the best of his career and he’s punching out 10.6 batters per nine innings. He’s struck out eight or more batters six times this season after doing it just four times in 32 starts last year. Like many pitchers, he’s introduced a sweeper and it’s worked wonders. Opposing hitters have compiled a .186 average against it while whiffing 39.6% of the time. It’s Lopez’s second-most thrown pitch, just ahead of a strong changeup but behind his fastball that’s getting hit hard. He’s allowed six homers and a .534 slugging on the fastball, though he’s been utilizing it less this month.
Yu Darvish – Buy
After posting one of the best seasons of his MLB career in 2022, Yu Darvish has struggled through the first two months of the 2023 campaign. He owns a 4.30 ERA through 69 innings, though his 3.55 xERA and 3.76 FIP look much more tolerable. Despite the high ERA, most of his underlying numbers look pretty similar to what he produced in 2022. Darvish has a 105 Pitching+, identical to what he posted last year, and his 111 Stuff+ isn’t far behind.
| Season | Stuff+ | Pitching+ | Hard-Hit% | Barrel% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 114 | 105 | 37.1% | 8.8% | 25.1% |
| 2023 | 111 | 105 | 36.8% | 7.1% | 27.6% |
A large reason for his poor performance this season is his slider; opponents are hitting .417 against it, including three of the eight homers Darvish has allowed this year. Recently, he’s relied much more on his sinker, which has held opponents to a .222 average and .250 slugging. Although he stumbled in Coors Field during his last outing, he hasn’t allowed a hit on the sinker or slider through two starts this month. With the deepest arsenal in baseball, Darvish will likely continue tinkering with his mix until he finds the right formula, bringing his ERA back down toward his standards in the process.
Edward Cabrera – Sell
My first sell choice may be a bit counterintuitive. Edward Cabrera is just 25 and has flashed plenty of upside but I’m not a big believer. After posting a 5.35 ERA through eight starts, he’s lowered it to 4.29 through 13 appearances. He’s allowed just one run over his last two outings, though he was simply taking advantage of home matchups against Oakland and Kansas City. His xERA and FIP of 3.92 and 4.13, respectively, don’t anticipate a dramatic improvement. The biggest concern is his walk rate, which has swelled up to 14% this year after an 11.3% mark in 2022. Of course, Cabrera’s walk rate is among the worst in baseball and has led to a 1.38 WHIP.
Again, the upside is apparent and anyone wanting to hold Cabrera would be justified. He’s punched 80 tickets in just 63 innings and has three pitches that have forced a whiff rate of 37% or higher, including a nasty curveball. The 6-foot-5 righty posted a 3.01 ERA in 2022 but it was accompanied by a 4.59 FIP and an unsustainable .207 BABIP. Cabrera’s walk issues have persisted throughout most of his career and, barring a dramatic change, will limit his fantasy ceiling. His value isn’t particularly high right now and could grow with a few more nice outings, but I’d be looking to move him to someone that’s desperate for strikeouts in exchange for a safer asset.
Freddy Peralta – Sell
It feels like it’s been an eternity since Freddy Peralta racked up 195 strikeouts with a 2.81 ERA across 144.1 innings during his age-25 campaign in 2021. His K/9 and K-BB% have both fallen in each of the last four seasons and his 2023 numbers now sit at 9.6 and 15.6%, respectively. Since the start of 2022, he’s posted a 4.13 ERA with 161 punchouts through 148.1 frames. Understandably, his whiff rate has dropped from 34.1% in 2021 to 29.7% in each of the last two years. The 27-year-old has been among the elites at limiting hard contact but now his hard-hit rate sits at 37.8%, just above the league average. His fastball velocity is up nearly two miles per hour on average compared to 2022, but opponents have already put it over the fence seven times with a .500 slugging against it.
I have Peralta as a sell in dynasty leagues for similar reasons as I do Cabrera. Peralta has the name value of a potential star starting pitcher that can’t stay healthy. While that’s partially true, his strikeout numbers tumbling over the last few years should be carving away at his fantasy value. Now, he’s sitting on a 4.73 ERA and 4.82 FIP along with that worsening K-BB%. There could be a “wait and see” approach here, though I don’t completely buy it. Peralta’s home-run rate is inflated (16.9% HR/FB) but pitching in Milwaukee doesn’t help. Even if his ERA comes back down to earth, it would take a huge rebound in the strikeout department for him to return to his former value.
Sandy Alcantara – Hold
There could be a compelling case to buy or sell Sandy Alcantara in dynasty leagues, which makes me lean toward holding him right now. Heading into the season, he was a great sell-high candidate but it would’ve been tough to pull the trigger. Now, even after a rough two months to begin the season, I’m not sure there’s enough of a discount to move him into “buy” territory. His 4.75 ERA looks pretty inflated compared to a 3.78 FIP. Alcantara’s Stuff+ has dropped from 120 in 2022 to a still-impressive 110 this season. One of the biggest changes from last year is the success, or lack of, with his changeup. It was his most dominant pitch in 2022, limiting batters to a .145 average and a 34.4% whiff rate. While the whiff rate has improved to 36.9%, batters are hitting .301 against it in 2023.
Even when Alcantara is at his peak, his low strikeout rate limits his fantasy value. It was very unlikely for him to post another 2.28 ERA, hence why the sell-high window this past offseason was juicy. But we know he’s not someone that’s going to pitch to a near-5.00 ERA for very long. From 2019-2021, he posted a 3.48 ERA over 445 innings. Alcantara’s underlying data is worse than his usual output, as expected, but it’s not too egregious. He could settle back into some success if his sinker continues to dominate; the 27-year-old has limited opponents to a .204 average with it and has thrown it at least 30% of the time in four straight outings.
Alek Manoah – Hold…?
We can’t discuss struggling starting pitching in 2023 without mentioning Alek Manoah. However, I have no idea what to make of his value right now. It’s certainly the lowest it’s ever been after his recent demotion. Prior to being sent down to the Complex League, he posted an abysmal 6.36 ERA and 48:42 K:BB in 58 innings. Unsurprisingly, Manoah’s underlying data is worse than his 2022 output in nearly every regard. His whiff rate is down while his hard-hit and barrel rates are easily career highs. He’s seemingly been one of the pitch clock’s biggest victims in 2023.
Despite all that, I’m still considering Manoah a hold. Prior to his age-25 season, he posted an elite 2.60 ERA across over 300 MLB innings. While I’m not confident enough to buy low, I don’t think I’d be ready to sell now that the bottom’s fallen out on his value. At this point, the return would likely be so minimal that it’s not worth giving up on him yet. Manoah is expected to return from a brief minor-league stint later this month and will hopefully settle into a groove this summer.
For more help in your dynasty leagues check out Tyler’s Top 500 Dynasty Rankings.