When drafting running backs, getting a clear number one is obviously where you want to land. After the best of those are gone some running backs that are on committees are OK. Last year it would have been Chubb/Hunt or Cook/Mattison; even though neither worked out how we thought they would. Both backs would usually get enough touches to be worth rostering in those cases. This year it could be Walker/Charbonnet or Swift/Penny.
What remains are backfields to beware of. These I am staying away from until there is more clarity. It’s difficult to draft a running back if you are not sure if he is 1A, 1B, or 1C. It’s even more difficult if there still aren’t enough fantasy points scored after they earn the lead-back role.
To see how we rank all the running backs, see our consensus running back rankings for 2023 here.
Backfields to Beware of
Miami Dolphins
Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson JR, Devon Achane, Myles Gaskin
Mostert looks to be the lead here, but I don’t think there will be a true No. 1. Last year Mostert ran for 891 yards rushing and added 202 more receiving. This was good for 8.6 Fantasy points per game.
Jeff Wilson, Jr. had almost identical numbers. He had 860 yards rushing and 185 receiving; good for 8.5 Fantasy points per game.
In 2021 Miles Gaskin averaged 7.3 Fantasy points per game.
Now, add in the third-round draft pick Devon Achane. It sounds like he has a skill set that could make him the NO. 1 back by the end of the year. The problem from a Fantasy standpoint is where will the Fantasy points come from to make him worthy of a roster spot. They won’t come from the Dolphins suddenly changing to a running team. Not with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle there.
Achane does have one huge disadvantage. He is a rookie. He might be the best runner on this team but may not be the best back, yet. With Tua Tagovailoa’s history of concussions, the number one priority for all the running backs on this team is to help keep the QB upright. It usually takes a season or two for a new back to figure out all the blocking schemes.
Chicago Bears
D’Onta Foreman, Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson
Foreman last year ran for 914 yards, 5 TDs, and ended the season as RB32.
Herbert missed four weeks but still ran for 731 yards, 5 TDs, and finished as RB37.
The fourth-round pick, Johnson has the talent to be more productive than either Foreman or Herbert.
This is a true split in the backfield. Any of the three backs have the ability to handle the No. 1 job but none will be given that opportunity. The touches should be split evenly unless there is an injury.
The Bears will not make it any easier for the running backs to rack up Fantasy points. Last year the Bears ran for 3014 yards and passed for only 2598. This year I expect those numbers will reverse, cutting into the Fantasy numbers for all the backs.
They have improved their offensive line. Robert Tonyan and his 470 receiving yards were brought in as an additional tight end. And the trade adding D.J. Moore to the receiving corp should make an immense difference in the Bears’ passing game.
There is also that little fact that Justin Fields ran for more yards than either running back and as the season went on he just got better. In the first 7 games, he averaged 52 yards on the ground. In the last 7 games he played his average was 102.
It’s hard enough to get fantasy points from a split backfield but when you split it three ways behind a quarterback that will have more yards than any of them it becomes a bit problematic. This is my number one backfield to beware of.
Detroit Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery
The Lions last year were a passing team. They averaged 380 yards per game in the air and only 128 on the ground. I am not expecting much of a difference.
The backfield changed but not necessarily improved.
Last year they had D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. Their combined rushing and receiving yardage was 2070.
This year the backfield is Gibbs and Montgomery. The projections are that they will combine for 2174 yards.
Coming in as the 12th player selected in this year’s draft, the starting position is Gibbs’ to lose.
However, don’t expect Montgomery to just go quietly and sit on the bench. He has never had less than 800 yards running in his career and this year he will be running behind the second-best offensive line in the league.
Because of his pass-catching ability, I would give Gibbs a slight edge here if you are in a PPR league.
Buffalo Bills
James Cook, Damien Harris, Latavius Murry, Nyheim Hines
One more backfield to beware of.
James Cook finished last year as RB44. He ran for 507 yards and caught 21 balls for an additional 180 yards.
Damien Harris is taking the place of Devin Singletary. Singletary last year ended the season as RB22. Harris and Singletary had stats that were almost identical last year.
I expect Cook to become the number-one back but in this high-powered offense, I just don’t see enough touches for either running back to be anything more than an RB3 at best on your team. This is another situation where you will see carries out of the backfield split between two decent backs and both could end up with fewer yards rushing than the QB.
For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!