Welcome to Cup O’ Coffee, Your often funny, fairly thorough, occasionally thoughtful look-back on the fantasy week that was. A one-stop Monday morning fantasy baseball recap with some tidbits to catch up on the fantasy baseball week that was, if you will. Here we’ll discuss injuries, promotions, demotions, trades, and anything else that catches our eye.
More great fantasy baseball advice and analysis: Waiver Wire & FAAB Recommendations | Daily MLB Injury Report | MLB DFS Picks | Line-up Analysis | Dynasty Rankings and Strategy | MLB Bullpen Updates | MLB Player Props | Prospect Rankings & Analysis | Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers
A Way-Too-Early Look at Next Year’s Draft
We all came into this season discussing Corbin Carroll (whose closest 90s pop-culture comp is a less punky Rufio from the movie “Hook”) and whether he would be able to live up to our sky-high projections and expectations. Is he going to hit for power? Will the average be there? Can he take walks? Despite his heady resume and industry cred, there was some reason to believe that MLB pitchers were going to find success against the Arizona outfielder. In his brief stint in MLB last season, CC had some success, slashing .260/.330/.500 but with a grooooooss K:BB of 31:8.
Welp, suffice to say that the rising star has so far exceeded even his loftiest expectations. Carroll is having himself a scorching June, going 21-for-58 while SLUGGING .828. Unreal numbers, that’s Barry-Bonds-level type ish.
So where would he go if we were drafting today? Currently, Carroll has an ADP of 26.93 in NFBC Second Chance leagues, with a minimum pick of 15 and a high of 41. While that feels about right, one doesn’t need to squint to see the possibility of Carroll sneaking into round 1 on Draft Day next season. Utilizing the aforementioned ADP numbers, here’s the list of players that are going before our young hero:
2023 NFBC Second Chance League Draft Results
- Acuña
- Judge
- Tatis
- Strider
- Freeman
- Julio Rodriguez
- Ohtani
- Cole
- Yordan
- McClanahan
- Jose Ramirez
- Trea
- Kyle Tucker
- Bichette
- Alonso
- Gausman
- Mookie
- Wander
- Vladito
- Witt Jr
- Semien
- Soto
- Arozarena
- Luis Castillo
- Devers
It doesn’t feel crazy to think that Carroll could find himself ten spots higher, around the Bo, Alonso and Mookie cluster. Someone asked us today who would we rather have in a dynasty moving forward, JRod or Carroll. We say, ‘Give us Corbin’. The OBP floor is real, slugging is sufficient and Rodriguez having to hit in that park for half of his games is a real bummer. What about you?
Ketel 2.0
Staying in the desert here, and it looks like one of the poster boys of ‘Don’t You Go Trusting Numbers from 2019’ is having a resurgence this season. Ketel Marte, who had fallen all the way to a preseason ADP of 200 after multiple disappointing campaigns, appears to have righted the ship. The 29-year-old switch-hitter is off to a nice 2023, hitting .289/.365/.486 with 10 HR and 30 RBI while hitting mostly out of the two hole in that much-improved Diamondbacks lineup.
After taking a dive into his Statcast numbers, nothing major jumps off the screen as his expected stats mostly line up with his on-the-field results as do his rolling charts. There are a couple of things to note, however. After spiking a 13.5° launch angle in 2022, Marte has lowered it to 8.8° this season, which, along with a 3% raise in his Barrels rate, has led to greater success. If you’re fortunate enough to have snagged him in the later parts of drafts, you’re absolutely loving this. Marte feels like a hold at this moment but if he’s available in your league, it might be worth poking around to see if his owner is thinking sell high.
Patience is a Virtue
To all those who rode the Blake Snell rollercoaster to start this season, a hat tip to you. The Padre’s No. 2 starter, and an MLB player who looks the most like he might sell you bad weed in a convenience store parking lot, came out of the gates slow this season, failing to make it past the fifth inning in the month of April. Owners were concerned while most in the industry preached that Snell would find his footing as the season progressed. The month of May assuaged some fears by bringing better fortunes. That is, until he blew up in a home start vs. the Red Sox, giving up six runs in four innings.
Since that season low-point though, wwwwhhhhoooooweeeeeee, Snell has been ON. FIRE. 2-0, 30 IP, 45:13 K:BB to with a 0.60 ERA (2.20 FIP). What’s changed? Well, the walks have come down. And if we drill down a bit into his pitch mix, it looks like before this dominant stretch he was lacking conviction in his off-speed offerings. In that Boston debacle, Snell threw 57% fastballs while only mixing in 15% changeups and 5% curveballs. Compare that with his breakdowns this past Saturday: 45% FB, 22% CHG, 21% CB. (Here’s a link to his Baseball Savant game log. If you want to see the breakdown of pitches, hover your cursor to the right of the game’s WHIP until you see a cluster of colored dots. Click to get a full spread and description of balls thrown in that game. Great stuff!) His pitch mix is something to keep an eye on moving forward. If you spy Snell starting to lean heavy on his fastball again, it might be time to start shopping him.
Alonso Really is the Ultimate Warrior
In a somewhat shocking Father’s Day surprise, Pete Alonso was back in the Mets lineup on Sunday, only 11 days since heading to the IL after getting struck on the hand by a Charlie Morton pitch. Polar Bear, Ultimate Warrior, Home Run Champ, call him what you want. But the dude is a blast to have on the field so this is good news to fans of baseball and fantasy managers alike.
For a complete rundown of injury news, check out Dave Funnell’s recap of all things IL-related right here on Fantrax!
One Last Thing
It’s becoming more and more clear that a big factor in the last decade of St. Louis Cardinals’ success was less about ‘The Cardinal Way’ and devil magic and more about the fact that they a) drafted a baseball prodigy when they selected Yadi Molina in the 4th round of the 2000 draft and b) lucked into a generational talent after Kansas City failed to take a JC hitter playing in their own backyard named Albert Pujols. Watching them float aimlessly through what is quickly becoming a lost season is bizarre to watch. albeit great entertainment for the rest of the NL Central.
Thanks as always for stopping by, we’ll be back next week! If you have any thoughts, suggestions, ideas or just want to drop a virtual high-five, leave us a note: [email protected]