A 10-7 season for the Los Angeles Chargers last year meant almost nothing. It’s really another season in which we question if the Chargers are ever going to make it over the initial playoff hump, and actually threaten to win a Super Bowl. They have the talent, that’s for sure. They bolstered that talent this offseason by keeping their core, and adding through the draft. Let’s dive in.
Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Football Preview
Key Subtractions and Additions
Subtractions: DeAndre Carter (WR)
Additions: Quentin Johnston (WR), Derius Davis (WR)
Positional Previews
Quarterback
There’s not much negative to say about Justin Herbert. Since he’s been given his chance to start in the NFL, he’s done nothing but show that he’s a top QB in this league; both in real life and fantasy. Last year, he put together 4,700 yards passing, on 68% completed passes, and 25 TDs. On a more micro level, Herbert dropped a top-ten fantasy week at QB in eight of his matchups. Would he single-handedly win you a week? Rarely. Would you ever be disappointed in his performance? Rarely. Herbert is about as even-keeled as it gets for a fantasy QB, and this year, he’s got the best set of weapons he’s ever had.
I have Herbert ranked as my QB6 on the year, and that’s just a tad bit higher than his QB7 consensus. The impetus for my optimism is while the sample size of three seasons is small, last year’s 25 passing TDs is an outlier from his first two seasons of 31 and 38 TDs. On top of that, Herbert’s rushing stats were almost non-existent in 2022, as he was battling injuries the entire season. He didn’t have a single rushing TD, while in the previous two seasons, he had 5 and 3 TDs. A regression to the mean for Herbert would mean bigger numbers, which bodes well for his fantasy stock. With all of Herbert’s major skill players returning, there’s no reason the Chargers won’t hit the ground running, and let that continuity display itself.
For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
Running Back
The argument can be made that over the past two seasons, Austin Ekeler has been the best running back in fantasy football. I wouldn’t make that argument, but someone could! Last year, Ekeler was quite simply, the Chargers’ entire offense. He gave us 915 yards rushing, with 13 rushing TDs. While that’s respectable, it was the additional 722 yards receiving, with 5 TDs, that made Ekeler the weapon he was. He finished in the top 10 for fantasy-scoring RBs eight times last year. Of those eight times, he finished the week as a top-three running back, five times. He was able to win you matchups on a week-to-week basis.
That said, I have Ekeler ranked as my RB4 for the year. About 1.5 draft spots lower than the consensus would take him. The reason I’m able to sing Ekeler’s praises and still not be 100% sold on his prospects this year, is because Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missed a combined 13 games last year. That’s two of Herbert’s favorite weapons, unable to play. That resulted in a career-high 107 receptions and a career-high 127 targets. He was force-fed because the Chargers never had another option. The Chargers have since addressed their depth at WR, and Ekeler’s touches will suffer from that fact. The Chargers don’t have a starting caliber backup RB, so Ekeler will still get plenty of touches but don’t expect the same kind of production that we saw last year.
Wide Receiver
The best WR on the team is Keenan Allen. The thing about best players is, they have to be on the field to retain their best player status. Keenan Allen has not been able to do that. He played 10 games last year, and in those individual weeks, he scored as a top-10 WR for the week just once. Once. It was a down year for him, but if you take a step back, he’s had 1100+ yards receiving in four of his last six seasons. If he can stay healthy, he’s going to have the same success he’s had for most of his career. I have him ranked as my WR13 this year, five spots better than his consensus.
As for Mike Williams, he’s my WR27 on the year currently, and as the offseason continues, I wouldn’t be surprised if he fell lower in my rankings. He played in 13 games last year, with just under 900 yards receiving and 4 TDs. While those are respectable numbers, he’s too touchdown-dependent for my liking, and while he’s a home run waiting to happen, the possession receiver has (and always will be) Keenan Allen.
This brings me to the rookie from TCU: Quentin Johnston. Johnston is a Mike Williams replacement in my mind. At 6’3″, 208 lbs, the big wideout was 89th percentile in yards per catch in his college class and also 89th percentile in catch radius. He’s a big huge target that is best used as a deep ball threat. The kicker is that he was also 76th percentile in target share, meaning he’s more likely to become used as a possession receiver than Mike Williams has been. He has the potential to eat up targets and remain a deep threat. That’s a recipe to become a favorite receiver. Derius Davis, the 5’8″ speed demon (ran a 4.36 40-yard dash), won’t be stashed on the bench either. There’s a reason the Chargers let DeAndre Carter walk, but to be honest, if he’s only replacing Carter’s production, he’s not an attractive fantasy asset quite yet.
Tight End
Gerald Everett is my TE13. Essentially right around his consensus. You don’t go reaching for the tight end in this offense. He falls to you. As always, there are only about four tight ends that are clearly above waiver wire/replacement level. Everett is not one of them.
Defense/Special Teams
In a high-powered offense like this, the defense is going to be on the field too much to have any draftable value. It’s more likely that the Chargers Defense is available on the waiver wire on a week-to-week basis (in a pinch), than you needing to draft them. I would look elsewhere for your go-to defense.
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— Lisa Ann (@thereallisaann) May 6, 2023