We got back to our winning ways in this space last week. This week, there are several MLB player props I have my eye on. Most of these plays are a direct byproduct of starting pitchers I am targeting. I am even targeting some of them together, as outlined below.
Whether you are tailing any of these player props for betting or DFS purposes, adjust to your liking and level of comfortability. And as always, double-check lineups and prices whenever possible. Let’s end the month with a bang!
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MLB Player Props for June 28
NO WIN Parlay: Patrick Corbin/Luke Weaver/Joey Wentz/Zach Davies (+152, Caesars)
A couple of notes before I begin. You can remove any one of these pitchers except for Luke Weaver and still get this at plus money. If you remove Weaver, it comes in at -110. While adding Weaver to this may seem contradictory to the prop directly following this one, I do not believe that to be the case. This is easily one of my favorite player props of the day.
These four pitchers have combined to win only seven of their 50 starts this season. Four of those seven victories have come from Patrick Corbin, so I will begin with him. Since defeating the Angels in April, Corbin’s only victories have come against the New York Mets, Detroit, and Kansas City. While Seattle may not be world-beaters, they have a better record than those three squads. They also have Logan Gilbert toeing the slab on Wednesday. Gilbert’s 3.54 xFIP is nearly three runs better than Corbin’s 6.42 mark. Corbin also has negative splits on the road versus right-handed batters. Both of these will likely work against him in this matchup.
The other three pitchers have each won just once so far this year. While I expect Cincinnati to be able to get to Kyle Gibson, that hardly means Weaver will coast to a win. The Reds have won each of Weaver’s last five starts. Yet he has been unable to record a single victory during that span. Weaver has not factored into the decision in any of his last eight outings. Baltimore has an above-average wRC+ in all applicable splits to this matchup, including at home, versus righties, and in June. Not to be outdone, the Texas Rangers have a wRC+ of 123 or better in their applicable splits against Wednesday’s opponent in Joey Wentz. Wentz is allowing a .372 wOBA on the road and a .371 mark against right-handed hitters. He should be in for a rough night versus the Rangers.
Finally, we have Zach Davies. In his defense, this is the only matchup among the four in which the starting pitchers’ FIPs are within 1.5 runs of each other. However, Davies will not even be the best starting pitcher in this game named Zach. Davies and the Diamondbacks will host Zach Eflin and the Tampa Bay Rays. Eflin has had his issues on the road, and Arizona is a formidable offense, but Eflin has been a bit unlucky away from the Trop. His road xFIP is a very respectable 3.51. I suppose by that token, Davies has run into some bad luck also. The difference is that Davies’ home xFIP is still 5.38. Even if Arizona can get to Eflin, I do not think Davies will benefit. He has failed to make it past the fourth inning in each of his last three starts.
TJ Friedl OVER 0.5 Runs Scored (+115, DraftKings)
While rookie phenoms Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain have grabbed the headlines during the Cincinnati Reds’ run of success, TJ Friedl has been an offensive catalyst. Their recent 12-game winning streak began the day Friedl returned to action following a stint on the Injured List. The Reds are averaging six runs per game since then, and Friedl is a big reason why. He has cemented himself as the team’s leadoff hitter against right-handed pitching. In his last seven starts, Friedl has scored eight runs, including at least one run scored in six of seven games. I expect Friedl to cross the plate again on Wednesday when the Reds face Kyle Gibson in the rubber match of their three-game set.
Friedl has reached base at least twice in each of his last seven starts. In total during that span, he has reached base 17 times, accumulating nine hits and eight walks. The walks are the reason I prefer Friedl’s run-scored player prop as opposed to any of the others. In June, he is reaching base at a .382 clip. For the season, Friedl owns a .376 on-base percentage against right-handers. His knack for getting on base should play well against Gibson. In his last five starts, Gibson has allowed 37 baserunners and 14 runs in just 26 innings. With Friedl’s recent success, ability to get on base, and some of the game’s hottest hitters behind him, I love getting this player prop at plus money.
Gunnar Henderson OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+125, DraftKings)
Luke Weaver is arguably the worst pitcher on a slate that includes Patrick Corbin and Zach Davies. As proof of that, I submit the following information. Of the 99 pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings this year, Weaver ranks 94th in BABIP and 97th in homers allowed per nine innings. That combination results in Weaver giving up more hits per batters faced than anyone else in baseball. There is not a split I could find that favors Weaver, but the Reds hurler has been especially generous to left-handed hitters on the road. Lefty hitters on the road are hitting .356 and slugging .689 versus Weaver this season. While there are several who can do damage against Weaver on Wednesday, I am targeting Gunnar Henderson for a couple of reasons.
Despite struggling for a large chunk of the season, Henderson sports a .622 slugging percentage at home against right-handed pitchers. His walk rate is also relatively low at 7.1 percent. However, Henderson has shown excellent form in recent weeks. Of the 221 hitters with at least 60 plate appearances in June, Henderson ranks 2nd in Pitch Value/100 on fastballs and 23rd against changeups. That matters because 73.3 percent of Weaver’s offerings to left-handed batters are fastballs or changeups. Henderson has yet to master the curveball, but Weaver only uses that pitch 21 percent of the time. I expect Henderson to be aggressive early in the count to avoid falling prey to the curve with two strikes. Henderson has cleared this number in 10 of his last 15 games, and I expect him to do so again on Wednesday.