I’ll admit, I’ve been kind of cranky lately. I’ll spare you the justification for that, but it works well given that I am tasked with giving you the five most overrated players in fantasy football.
Given my crankiness, and possibly curmudgeon demeanor lately, I could have made this list a mile long. However, for the benefit of both you and my editor, I kept it to one player at each of the fantasy football positions: QB, RB, WR, K, and TE.
And please, just because I think these players are overrated, that doesn’t mean I am telling you not to draft them. It just means that their ADP is likely a little out of whack or at the very least, buyer beware.
I know, I am probably inviting a firestorm of negative feedback, but like it or not, here are my five most overrated players in fantasy football this year.
The Five Most Overrated Players in Fantasy Football
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott might be one of the most divisive quarterbacks in all of fantasy football. Does any QB have a bigger army of both defenders and haters? And neither side looks like it’s going to budge. But if I have to pick a side in this war, I’m going with those who think Prescott is overrated.
The reason this battle has become so heated is that Dak’s current contract expires in 2024. So Dallas is going to have to decide if they want to give him an extension or not. And I’ll admit, if I’m Dallas I’m not sure what I would do. Because one of the things that Prescott has going for him and his supporters like to point to is “his intangibles”.
I will concede he definitely has some of the intangibles. But intangibles don’t mean squat in fantasy football. But here are some of the “tangibles”, i.e. stats that have me avoiding Prescott this fantasy draft season:
-In 2021, Prescott threw for 37 TDs. That is the one and only year in his six-year career that he threw for more than 30 TDs
-But he’s a great scrambler, right? He is averaging two rushing touchdowns a season over the last four seasons. Tom Brady has more rushing TDs over the last four years. And things get even worse if we shorten the time span. He has just one rushing TD in each of the last two seasons.
-Prescott has averaged 11 games played a season over the last three seasons. He can’t help your fantasy team if he’s not on the field.
-You might have known this was coming, but last and certainly not least–15 Interceptions. How bad is that? That ties Prescott with Davis Mills for the most interceptions last season. Not exactly the company you want to keep. And it’s the fourth time in his six-year career he has thrown double-digit interceptions. Even the average quarterbacks usually have a 2:1 TD-to-INT ratio. Prescott’s 23:15 line is UGG-LEE.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Is Robinson going to be good? Very likely. But given the hype surrounding him, he had better be as least as good as Adrian Petersen and then happen to walk on water. I have actually seen some “experts” who have Robinson as the top RB in redraft. Sorry, there is no way Robinson can match that hype or most of the other hype as well.
13 Players have received a 90+ Next Gen Stats pre draft grade
10/13 have a Top 12 Fantasy Finish in their career
The only ones who do not yet:
Bijan Robinson
Breece Hall
Travis Etienne— Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) July 6, 2023
I love the tweet above because it shows you all you need to know. Robinson is a highly-rated prospect and I do think he will be special… but so were Breece Hall and Travis Etienne. And they have yet to be the top RB in fantasy football. Maybe one of them do it this year. Alas, if they do, it means it won’t be Robinson as the top back.
I’m not going to make this too complicated–let’s see Robinson play an NFL game first before we anoint him the best RB in fantasy football.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Is Justin Jefferson good? Of course, he is. I’d be ecstatic to have him as my top receiver on any of my fantasy football teams. But can we please stop calling him the “slam dunk number one overall pick”?
Yes, he was the top WR in fantasy football last year. The year before that was Cooper Kupp. Before Kupp it was Davanate Adams. Michael Thomas was the top WR the year before Adams. See where I’m going? We have to go back nearly 10 years to Antonio Brown repeating as back-to-back top fantasy WR.
The point is that as good as Jefferson is, the odds are not in his favor of repeating as the top fantasy WR. And plenty of folks like Jamar Chase as the top WR this year. So if Jefferson isn’t even the obvious top option at his own position, how can he be the obvious number one overall pick?
Justin Tucker, K, Baltimore Ravens
Ravens long snapper Nick Moore recently said in an podcast interview with @sgellison, that he has seen Justin Tucker kick a 75-yard field goal in practice before.
He also says that Tucker kicks 70-yard field goals every day. pic.twitter.com/H7D2kAtAnn
— Ravens Nation LIVE (@LIVERavenNation) July 4, 2023
I love Tuck. I’ve written a litany of articles over the years about how amazing he is. The only football jersey I’ve bought in the last five years is Justin Tucker’s. If I’m picking a kicker, I’m picking Justin Tucker.
But I’m seeing his ADP often between 130 and 150. That is way too early to be grabbing a kicker in a 12-team league. You should be picking a kicker at the EARLIEST in the third to last round. And 130 to 150 is far from the third to last round in a standard 12-team league.
Furthermore, even in Fantrax’s ADP he is going nearly 30 spots ahead of the second kicker, Daniel Carlson. Tucker did finish ahead of Carlson last year…by two total points. Are you trying to tell me that two points over the course of a season are worthy of taking a guy over two rounds beforehand?
I could easily be the president of the Justin Tucker Fan Club and I am asking you to stop overrating him, please.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings
Hockenson is a very good tight end. But apparently, I missed a memo, because now most folks think he’s a great TE. Folks haven’t lost their minds enough to take Hockenson before Travis Kelce, but I’ve seen Hock taken as the second-highest TE and as early as the second round.
No. No. No.
Hockenson rounds out my top five tight ends. Yet he should never be taken within the top 25 and only in a TE-premium league would I be likely to take him in the top 50.
Hockenson supporters will point to his last game, where he caught 10 passes for 129 yards. That’s absolutely a great line, but that’s one game. Last year was Hockenson’s best year and even then he only averaged five catches and under 55 yards per game. Does that sound like a player with which you want to use high draft capital?
Maybe he takes a leap this year. But Hockenson has yet to have 100 catches in a season, sniff the 1K-yard mark, or catch more than six touchdowns. I need to see him excel in at least one of those categories before I consider him a great TE. He’s a very good tight end, period.
For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
GIVEAWAY ALERT! 🚨🏈
We are excited to be launching another giveaway, where ONE lucky winner will receive an Official NFL Travis Kelce Signed Jersey!
Giveaway Details Below 👀 pic.twitter.com/9SOB29Q3yp
— Fantrax (@Fantrax) July 4, 2023