NASCAR DFS: Highpoint.com 400 Preview

The NASCAR Cup Series heads South from New Hampshire to Long Pond, Pennsylvania for a loaded weekend at the tricky triangle at Pocono Raceway. We’ve seen nearly four straight weeks of poor weather for the Cup Series. Finally, we have a weekend that seems fairly clear. Pocono is a bit of a stand-alone track. It is a massive flat track at 2.5 miles in length and only three turns. This track features two of the longest straightaways on the NASCAR schedule and it’s not uncommon for the drivers to fan out and go five-or-six-wide on the front stretch. We don’t have many direct correlative tracks for this weekend, but we know who should run up front here. Let’s take a look at the drivers in this week’s Hightpoint.com 400 preview for Sunday’s race.

Highpoint.com 400 Preview: The Tops Plays

Kyle Larson (#5 Chevrolet)

Kyle Larson tends to show up and contend when we least expect it. He’s finished top five in four of the last six races entering this weekend. Additionally, he has three top-five finishes in his last four races at Pocono including 18 laps led here in 2022. If Pocono does have some correlation to other tracks it might be to Auto Club and Michigan. Big horsepower is important and those are also wide sweeping tracks. Larson has flirted with a win at Pocono in the past and it’s possible he gets to victory lane on Sunday.

Denny Hamlin (#11 Toyota)

We’re about to touch on two drivers disqualified from last year’s race at Pocono. Let’s start with Denny Hamlin. Hamlin won this race last year but was disqualified following post-race tech inspection simply for an extra layer of tape over the front facia. Hamlin has 33 Cup Series races at Pocono and has won six times. It would’ve been seven if not for last year’s disqualification. He’s posted a driver rating over 100 in eight straight races here. He’s also led double-digit laps in nearly half his races at the tricky triangle. That’s saying something given the size of Pocono and the lack of total laps.

Kyle Busch (#8 Chevrolet)

After Denny Hamlin was disqualified, Kyle Busch was the winner at Pocono in 2022. That lasted for probably a few seconds because Busch was disqualified on the same grounds as Hamlin. But Busch also had a great run here last year in the NextGen debut at the tricky triangle. Kyle Busch led 63 laps with 31 fastest laps here in 2022 with a 139.3 driver rating. Now the argument against Busch this week is that he’s on a new team. But overall there’s been a correlation between Kyle Busch being good at tracks in 2023 and where Tyler Reddick had speed in 2022. Reddick coincidentally finished second (after Hamlin and Busch were disqualified) and Busch is coming off a horrendous weekend at New Hampshire. Pocono is a good track for him to bounce back.

Highpoint.com 400 Preview: Wouldn’t Bet Against Them

Ross Chastain (#1 Chevrolet)

Despite wrecking 18 laps prior to the finish, Chastain still managed the eighth-best driver rating in this race last year. He even ran up front and led 16 laps with 15 fastest laps. Chastain enters Pocono with three straight finishes outside the top 20 and the speed was a little underwhelming last week at New Hampshire. But both Trackhouse Racing cars had speed a year ago and this is a race where horsepower matters and that does cater to any driver in a Chevrolet this weekend.

Brad Keselowski (#6 Ford)

Pocono is one of Keselowski’s best tracks in his career. He has 11 top-five finishes in 25 career races at Pocono. Last year he started P26 and finished 16^th (14^th after the aforementioned disqualifications). But during his second year in his tenure with RFK Racing, he’s found his footing. A win is in the cards for him and it could be Pocono. He finished 11^th or better in three of his last four races entering this weekend, including a top-five last weekend at New Hampshire. This could be a weekend where the Fords struggle with the aero package, but Keselowski has been laying down more speed and moving his way up the Ford power rankings.

Alex Bowman (#48 Chevrolet)

I am quite high on the Chevy’s entering this weekend, in case you couldn’t tell. That even goes for Alex Bowman, who hasn’t been all that exciting since returning from injury. I included him in last week’s preview for New Hampshire and he did start P25 at New Hampshire and finish 14^th and he registered an 11^th place finish here last year. On top of that, I keep stressing that he has one of the more unheralded crew chiefs in NASCAR in Blake Harris. Harris helped Michael McDowell finish eighth here before the Hamlin and Busch DQs in 2022. Bowman has four straight finishes of 11^th or better at Pocono including a win in 2021.

Highpoint.com 400 Preview: The Sleepers

Austin Dillon (#3 Chevrolet)

I’ve already listed his teammate, Kyle Busch, so I might as well go with both RCR drivers for this week’s Highpoint.com 400 preview. Austin Dillon is usually a higher variance driver in terms of DFS. But at Pocono, he does have six straight finishes of 21^st or better and he’s hit that mark in 11 of his last 12 races. Now finishing 21^st is not elite. But in that dozen-race sample size, he’s finished 13^th or better in half of them including a top ten last year. He finished ninth at Auto Club and keep in mind, his teammate won there earlier this year and his previous teammate was dominant there in 2022. Even at Michigan last year he finished 13th, a similar track requiring more speed. I wouldn’t rule out another top-10 finish this weekend.

Ty Gibbs (#54 Toyota)

The amount of DFS exposure we give Gibbs likely depends on where he starts. He made his Cup Series debut here in 2022 where he started P10 but finished 16^th. Two weeks later he’d grab a top ten at Michigan and earlier this year he finished 16^th at Auto Club. He had a fairly disappointing run at New Hampshire where he finished 27^th but that was due to a late incident with less than three laps to go. Overall, he had a top 20 car, arguably top 15. But he should be reasonably priced and should have top 15 upside once again this weekend.

Erik Jones (#43 Chevrolet)

Erik Jones seems to have solved the issues plaguing the Legacy Motor Club team. Unfortunately, Noah Gragson hasn’t done the same. But Jones’ results have stood out recently. Since Sonoma, Jones has finished 16^th or better in four straight races. And that includes 11^th or better in three of those. In the NextGen car, he’s finished 19^th and 3^rd at Auto Club. He even grabbed top tens last year at Pocono and Michigan. I’m fine riding the momentum and track history with this discounted driver.