After an eventful Sunday at Pocono Raceway, Denny Hamlin landed his 50th career win. But it wasn’t without controversy as he appeared to run Kyle Larson up the track as they battled for the lead. But it is what it is, and we knew Hamlin would be competitive last week. Now we turn our attention to Richmond Raceway for the second time this year. Kyle Larson scored the win here in the Spring, but the Toyotas were still competitive leading 154 laps, but they just couldn’t top Hendrick Motorsports. However, the narrative has changed and the Toyotas have been the class of the field the last handful of races. Even the Fords have seen improvements as well so we should see some good racing on Sunday. Let’s take a look at the top drivers for this week’s Cook Out 400 preview.
Richmond Raceway is a short track measuring at just three-quarters of a mile. In the NextGen car, we haven’t necessarily seen the best racing with the short track package. It’s been unwatchable at times with the high level of difficult passing. Most recently at New Hampshire, the short track package did okay and the race was pretty solid overall depending who you ask. But we do get a race that requires tire strategy. Those who manage their tires well do have an edge as we’ll see high tire wear for the second time at Richmond in 2023.
Cook Out 400 Preview: The Top Plays
Denny Hamlin (#11 Toyota)
Leading off the Cook Out 400 Preview, we have last week’s winner. Hamlin was going to make this section regardless of how last week’s race went at Pocono. Hamlin considers this his home track. It won’t feel like too much of a homecoming because I’m fairly certain he’ll be booed heavily following last week’s race. But he’s raced here 33 times in the Cup Series with four wins and has finished in the top five in 17 races. Yes, he has finished in the top five in just over half his races here. Joe Gibbs Racing has a great history at this track and Denny Hamlin has managed to get to the front and lead laps in six straight Richmond races.
Kyle Larson (#5 Chevrolet)
Larson has two career wins at Richmond including this past April where he was up front for 93 laps. While track history and momentum may be on Hamlin’s side, no driver has looked better in the short-track package than Larson. He started on the pole at Phoenix in the Spring and led over 200 laps while finishing fourth. He then went on to win Richmond and Martinsville before finishing third at New Hampshire two weeks ago. There’s no need to overthink it. After clashing last week, these two are the early favorites for Richmond.
Christopher Bell (#20 Toyota)
It was a tossup between Bell and the next driver for this spot behind Hamlin and Larson. I’m giving Bell the nod because winning at Richmond means a lot to Joe Gibbs. In Bell’s last five races at Richmond, he’s finished sixth or better in all of them. He finished second in this race a year ago and was fourth in the Spring after leading 26 laps. Bell scored wins on two short tracks last year and honestly, he needs a “get right” race as he hasn’t scored a top five since his win at Bristol Dirt over three months ago.
Cook Out 400 Preview: Wouldn’t Bet Against Them
Kevin Harvick (#4 Ford)
Richmond was one of Harvick’s two wins from a year ago and it certainly is one of his better tracks. In 44 career races here, Harvick has four wins and 18 top five finishes. Similarly, if Kyle Larson has been the best in the short track package in the NextGen car, Kevin Harvick is probably second. Harvick arguably had the best car at Phoenix and likely would’ve won if it weren’t for an ill-timed caution in stage three. But he still had 49 fastest laps with only 36 laps led. That’s phenomenal. He then finished second in the first Richmond race and was fifth at New Hampshire. He could easily play spoiler to the Hamlin/Larson battle on Sunday.
William Byron (#24 Chevrolet)
It’s hard to bet against the driver who leads all drivers in wins this year. At Richmond, in the NextGen car, Byron has led over 100 laps in two of the three races. Some NASCAR DFS players may look at his finishes on short tracks and pass him by. In the Spring at Richmond, he finished 24th but had an average running position of third. At New Hampshire he finished 24th but ran 14th on average. At Martinsville he finished 23rd but had an average position of 16th. Don’t forget he did win Phoenix earlier in the year which correlates to Richmond. Byron doesn’t need to race for stage points and can keep chasing wins.
Cook Out 400 Preview: The Sleepers
Michael McDowell (#34 Ford)
McDowell was fortunate to finish sixth in this race in the Spring despite having an average running position of 17th. He made a late strategy call that helped him gain track position. But overall, McDowell and his team are good with strategizing late in races. McDowell is currently 17 points to the good for the playoffs. So he’ll be strategizing for stage points in addition to a strong finish to maintain his place in the standings. The overall performance in the NextGen car on short tracks is concerning for McDowell, but from a strategic standpoint, his team will do what they need to get him in position for a good finish.
Aric Almirola (#10 Ford)
Aric Almirola always gets some consideration on shorter flat tracks. And that’s exactly what Richmond is. In each of the last two Richmond races, he started P32 and finished 13th and 8th respectively. He’s had some bad luck on short tracks in 2023. He wrecked at New Hampshire, a track he won at two years ago, and he had a weird incident at Phoenix where he lost a tire. But last year in the NextGen car he finished top 12 at Phoenix, Martinsville, and the summer Richmond race. There are pros and cons with Almirola this week, but he’s had good speed in the short-track package despite the results not matching up.
Chase Briscoe (#14 Ford)
I’m stunned I’m listing three SHR drivers in this article, but I think it’s warranted. Briscoe had slightly better results on short, flat tracks in 2022 than in 2023. Last year he won the first Phoenix race and finished fourth in the season finale. But he also finished 11th in the first Richmond race while grabbing top-10 finishes in both Martinsville races. This year he’s grabbed top-10 finishes at Phoenix, Martinsville, and New Hampshire. Plus he finished 12th at this track in April. He’s a bit of a long shot but SHR, as a team, has looked better in the short-track package this year.