With the MLB Trade Deadline behind us, things are really kicking into high gear. The same is taking place across fantasy leagues as this is truly the time to make your move. If you are in a keeper or dynasty league, the first item for consideration is whether or not you are playing for the present or the future. And then, regardless of your league format, or even if there is trading or not, you must decide your pitching strategy when targeting two-start pitchers.
It is vital to evaluate your place in the standings and what categories you need to attack for the remainder of the season. From a pitching standpoint, it is often a balancing act between the ratios (ERA/WHIP) and the counting categories (Wins/Strikeout), and then Saves also come into play. When we are dealing with points leagues, things are very different as it no longer matters where the points come from, just how many points you can accumulate. In either type of league, effectively using two-start pitchers can be a great way to stay ahead of your competition.
I won’t be listing all two-start pitchers for the upcoming week as that could be too cumbersome. With this being said, we will only detail the viable options that will be taking the mound twice.
If you are in the position of trolling the waiver wire, especially in deeper leagues, it is hard to find comfort with the options that are likely available, so caution must be exercised. Regardless of league size, this is something that must be managed across the board.
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Fantasy Baseball Two Start Pitchers
No Doubters
There are simply some pitchers who are going to be weekly occupants of your starting lineup regardless of any other variables.
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves, at Pittsburgh, at NY Mets
Strider sits at the top of our list of two-start pitchers for the week based on his strikeout production and upside. In his last three starts, the right-hander has struck out an insane 32 batters over 19 innings and it’s hard not to like his matchups against the Pirates and Mets. Seeing a pitcher with 14.44 strikeouts per nine innings is just insane and it can truly make a real impact in the standings.
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees, at Chicago White Sox, at Miami Marlins
Cole has been the one bright spot for the Yankees this season as the right-hander continues to pitch like an ace. He has been able to limit the home runs, 0.88 per nine innings, compared to last year but his strikeouts are down. With that being said, he is striking out more than a batter an inning and no one is going to argue with 10 victories and a 2.64 ERA while posting a 1.77 ERA in his last three starts.
Framber Valdez, Houston Astros, at Baltimore, vs. LA Angels
It doesn’t get much better than Valdez’s last start as he threw a no-hitter against the Guardians. Valdez needed just 93 pitches to dispatch Cleveland as he continued on what has been a strong season minus a few speedbumps. While we have seen a large drop in Valdez’s ground ball rate, 66.5% to 54%, hitters have an average launch angle of just 3.6 degrees against him with a 7.7% barrel rate. Both metrics point to continued success for the southpaw.
Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers, at Arizona, vs. Colorado
Things have not been going well for Urias since returning from the Injured List, but facing Oakland on Thursday helped to turn things in the right direction. The big thing for Urias is that he needs to keep the ball in the park, 1.77 home runs per nine innings, but he does limit the walks and his 4.16 xERA is a lot better than his 4.98 ERA entering that start on Thursday. It is interesting to see the home/road split for Urias this season (2.47/7.88), so at worst, it will be a mixed bag.
Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox, vs. NY Yankees, vs. Milwaukee
Despite the fact that Cease has an 8.10 ERA in his last three starts, you are still starting the right-hander if he is on your team. It was a little surprising that the right-hander was not traded at the deadline, but the talented Cease still calls Chicago home. Cease is striking out almost 11 batters per nine innings, so we get the upside there, but it is his 3.87 walker per nine innings and 4.61 ERA that generate concern. However, his 3.75 FIP does paint things in a better light, and with a 6.9% barrel rate, opposing hitters are not making great contact.
Solid Options
These two-start pitchers are likely going to be rostered in the majority, if not all leagues, and started in most of them as well.
Kodai Senga, New York Mets, vs. Chicago Cubs, vs. Atlanta
Things have not been completely smooth for Senga this season, but it is also tough to argue with his debut season. Through 20 starts, Senga’s ERA sits at 3.25, with a WHIP of 1.29, and things have gotten better for him after initial struggles out of the gate. Each of Senga’s starts come at home this week where he has a 2.40 ERA with 71 strikeouts in 56.1 innings.
Zach Eflin, Tampa Bay Rays, vs. St. Louis, vs. Cleveland
Eflin has been even better than expected in his first season with Tampa Bay pitching with a 3.46 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The right-hander is striking out a batter an inning while walking just 17 batters this season. As we chase victories, what stands out the most though, is Eflin’s 12 victories so far this year.
Sonny Gray, Minnesota Twins, at Detroit, at Philadelphia
Gray continued to see victories allude him as he sat at just four victories on the season prior to Thursday’s start. The right-hander finally returned to the winning side of things with seven innings of two-run ball while striking out eight on Thursday. Everything else is working pretty well for Gray with a 3.18 ERA as he continues to be a solid option.
Eduardo Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers, vs. Minnesota, at Boston
It was a little surprising to see Rodriguez decline a trade to the Dodgers, but that is his right and perfectly understandable. Rodriguez has turned in a strong season across the board with a 2.96 ERA through 16 starts. Hitters have not been squaring the left-hander up, and with 2.10 walks per nine innings, there is not a large risk factor here as he strikes out a batter per inning.
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians, vs. Toronto, at Tampa Bay
With 17 starts in his career to this point, Bibee is finding his groove at the major league level. He is striking out a batter per inning to go along with 3.14 ERA with hitters unable to truly square him up with just a 6.1% barrel rate.
Seth Lugo, San Diego Padres, vs. LA Dodgers, at Arizona
Lugo continues to have a strong season in his first with the Padres. Over his last three starts, the right-hander has 24 strikeouts in 24 innings along with a 2.70 ERA. The right-hander is healthy once again with his ERA now sitting at 3.54 on the season. Lugo strikes out close to a batter per inning while limiting the walks which makes him a reliable option.
Alex Cobb, San Francisco Giants, at LA Angels, vs. Texas
I don’t want to sell Cobb short by saying that he is not impactful, but in looking at two-start pitchers, the big thing here is reliability. In 20 starts, Cobb has just six victories while not even averaging six innings an outing. With a 57.3% ground ball rate and an average launch angle against of just 0.8 degrees, hitters aren’t able to do much damage against the right-hander.
Worthy of a Start in Most Leagues
In 10-team leagues, these two-start pitchers might be not worth the trouble, but in anything deeper, these Fantasy Baseball Two Start Pitchers are worth strong consideration at a minimum, and likely deserving of a starting spot this week.
Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers, at San Diego, vs. Colorado
Gonsolin outpitched his 3.28 FIP last season with a 2.14 ERA, with the gap driven by a .207 BABIP. This year, we are seeing a similar story but he has taken a step backwards. Through 17 starts, Gonsolin’s ERA is sitting at 4.11 (4.87 FIP) as he benefits from a .224 BABIP. Strikeouts are (7.29 per nine innings) and ground balls are down for Gonsolin this year while walks and home runs are up. He is still a solid option even without a large amount of upside as Gonsolin’s barrel rate has jumped from 5.6% to 9.1%.
Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates, vs. Atlanta, vs. Cincinnati
After a strong start to the season, things have taken an ugly turn for Keller. After allowing two runs over 5.2 innings in his most recent start, all of that positive momentum disappeared on Thursday as Keller was tagged for eight runs. Keller’s ERA is now up to 4.35 on the season, and exercising caution is reasonable.
Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies, vs. Washington, vs. Minnesota
The unfortunate thing is that Suarez’s ERA at home is double his mark on the road this year as both of his starts come in Philadelphia. With that being said, Suarez generates a 52.5% ground ball rate and he is a solid option if you are looking for innings this week while diving through the two-start pitchers.
Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles, vs. Houston, at Seattle
It will be tough for the rookie against the Astros to begin the week, but since his most recent promotion, things have been going well for Rodriguez. In this his last three starts, the prospect has a 2.55 ERA, including 3.18 in July, as he looks a lot more comfortable this time around. While it will still not be a clear path of adjustments, Rodriguez is a better place.
Braxton Garrett, Miami Marlins, at Cincinnati, vs. NY Yankees
As long as Garrett continues to strike out close to 10 batters per nine innings, he is going to bring upside to the table. From a ratio perspective, Garrett does a good job of limiting the walks, 1.54 per innings, but the long ball has been something to watch. Additionally, his 3.56 FIP (3.09 xFIP) provides optimism compared to his 4.14 ERA.
Dane Dunning, Texas Rangers, at Oakland, at San Francisco
Dunning remains in the rotation for Texas after their new additions despite his 5.17 ERA in his last three starts. We cannot discount the fact that Dunning’s first start of the week comes in Oakland so that certainly helps. The problem here is that Dunning’s upside is limited by his 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
Digging Deeper
This is where we really need to limit ourselves to leagues of 15-plus teams as we need all the innings we can get; but at what cost? This is the last bastion of two-start pitchers who are rostered in more than 50% of leagues.
Wade Miley, Milwaukee Brewers, vs. Colorado, at Chicago White Sox
We are not getting strikeouts from Miley, 6.42 per nine innings, and that limits his upside. It is hard to miss his 3.01 ERA but his 4.26 FIP does point to some additional struggles coming around the corner. Regardless, Miley is a reliable veteran who is worth a look if it is innings you are after.
Josiah Gray, Washington Nationals, at Philadelphia, vs. Oakland
Gray benefits from facing Oakland this week, and what he lacks in upside he gains in reliability. With more than four walks per nine innings, things are tough on the ratios and Gray does not bring much in the way of strikeout upside. While Gray’s 3.54 ERA is enticing, his 4.72 FIP throws additional caution at things.
Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians, vs. Toronto, at Tampa Bay
Williams struggles with his control, but the rookie has been able to navigate around the walks. Through eight starts, Williams has a 3.38 ERA (4.55 xERA) and while he has limited the damage, the right-hander has also yet to be overpowering. I understand where the optimism is coming from, but a little more caution is likely prudent.
MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals, at Philadelphia, vs. Oakland
Gore is one of the lucky hurlers this week as he gets to face the A’s. The left-hander has been one of the few bright spots for Washington this season and he comes in hot with a 2.81 ERA in his last three starts. After some struggles earlier in July, it is a good sign to see Gore bounce back in what has been an up-and-down season. He continues to struggle with control, 3.94 walks per nine innings, and the long ball (1.45 per nine innings) but the strikeout upside is there.
Two-Start Pitchers from the Waiver Wire
These are pitchers who are rostered in less than 50% of leagues who could provide value both for this week and the remainder of the season. This is especially the case in deeper leagues, but these options have potential across most formats if you are looking to maximize your innings.
Kutter Crawford, Boston Red Sox, vs. Kansas City, vs. Detroit
Depending on your league, Crawford is on the cusp of being a waiver wire add. For starters, it does not really get much better from a matchup perspective for Crawford this week against the Royals and Tigers. In 25.1 innings in July, Crawford posted a 3.55 ERA before beginning August with five shutout innings. We get about a strikeout an inning from the right-hander as he limits the walks and should be a solid option.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, Toronto Blue Jays, at Cleveland, vs. Chicago Cubs
After allowing four runs on nine hits through five innings in his return against Baltimore, Ryu gets two more cracks at it this week. The Guardians should provide a better landing spot than the surging Orioles, but it was a good sign that Ryu made it through five innings.
Matt Manning, Detroit Tigers, vs. Minnesota, at Boston
After going three starts in which he allowed just one run, Manning has given up 11 runs in his last two starts. With 36 strikeouts in 47.2 innings, we do lose some upside there, but with a 4.53 ERA 1.11 WHIP, Manning has been a solid option.
Brandon Williamson, Cincinnati Reds, vs. Miami, at Pittsburgh
It has been an up-and-down season for Williamson, but he does have two victories in his last three starts to bring his ERA down to 4.85. These are two solid spots for Williamson, but just be aware of what you are getting with 7.21 strikeouts and 3.80 walks per nine innings.
Drew Smyly, Chicago Cubs, at NY Mets, at Toronto
At this point, facing the Mets is a pretty nice landing spot for a starting pitcher and that is how Smyly begins his week. An 8.59 ERA in his last starts is rough and you know what you are getting based on his 4.71 ERA. There is an implied risk at this stage of two-start pitchers as Smyly continues to struggle with the long ball; 1.68 per nine innings.