Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the running back position is in a tough spot financially for the players.
Between Jonathan Taylor’s recent absence from training camp, the lack of long-term deals for franchise-tagged running backs, and the big running back group call on Zoom to discuss their depressed market, it is a tough time to be a running back in the NFL.
But as the rules are, who can blame the teams? Second contracts for running backs have been terrible in recent years and the natural attrition rate of the position offers little certainty in long-term investments. Still, for our purposes in dynasty football, there’s plenty of value to be had even as a player’s career is winding down.
3 Cheap Win-Now Runnings Backs for 2023 Dynasty Leagues
These backs may be on the older end and circling the drain, but just because the league undervalues them doesn’t mean you have to. If you’re just looking for someone to put you over the top this season, here are three great options.
Aaron Jones, GB
Predicting the end of Aaron Jones has been en vogue since the moment AJ Dillon arrived. The Quadfather, as Dillon is called sometimes for his thunderous thighs, has threatened Jones’ goal line opportunities.
Jones is right back to fighting for carries with Dillon after years of doing the same with Jamaal Williams.
Regardless, Jones was nothing if not sensational this past year. While he had a down year with drops and in receiving in general, logging a 64.6 receiving grade from PFF last year, he was still their No. 6 RB on the year.
And while Dillon may have prevented Jones from collecting more than 2 rushing TDs last season, I would expect some positive TD regression as well.
Even at the ripe age of 28.6, there’s still meat on the bone here. Running behind last year’s No. 2 offense in Adjusted Line Yards, which has a big correlation with fantasy success, Jones is primed for a big year. Despite this, he goes on KeepTradeCut’s dynasty rankings lower than J.K. Dobbins and James Cook.
Both of those backs are of course paired with rushing quarterbacks, which can also be a detriment. Take the discount on Jones if you can get him and enjoy RB1 success.
Alvin Kamara, NO
Yes, I heard about the fight. And at 28.0, losing even just a handful of games is a potential death blow to his value. But the name of the game here is finding cheap RBs. And you’re not going to find a much better discount than a player facing disciplinary troubles.
So for now, Alvin Kamara gets the edge on slightly more expensive players like Joe Mixon (though we may revisit this if Mixon continues to run into trouble). And he has a couple of tailwinds that should help him moving forward.
First and foremost, Derek Carr, owner of fewer career rushing yards than Justin Fields amassed last season, is coming to town. His focus on short-yardage passing and his inability to vulture TDs should be a boon to Kamara.
And much like Jones, expect Kamara to have some positive TD regression. Considering Kamara was hardly a short-yardage slouch in his heyday, two rushing TDs seem low. Even with Jamaal Williams here to haunt Kamara, expect luck to swing back his way.
After all, at age 33, Taysom Hill’s magic has to end at some point. Perhaps some of his 7 rushing TDs from last year add to Kamara’s 2023 bounty. If I’m planning on winning now, I’d certainly move the higher-ranked Kendre Miller in favor of one last ride.
James Conner, ARI
If you haven’t figured it out yet, I’m a sucker for offenses that are led by statues at QB. And while you might think that doesn’t apply to Arizona with Kyler Murray, you may want to think again.
Even assuming that his projected September timeline for a return remains true, he suffered a major lower-body injury. Previous injuries to signal callers with a slant towards running (think Dak Prescott, or Robert Griffin III) have resulted historically in a 30% or so reduction in rushing production. While he set the world on fire with 819 rushing yards in 2020, it’s possible those days are behind him.
So if the opportunity on that end is knocking, consider me even more in on the 28.2-year-old when examining his competition. In terms of 2022 production, there were 115 yards of rushing production from the 2nd string, 3rd string, and 4th string RBs for ARI combined.
Conner has a stranglehold on the role for 2023, which should make up for Arizona’s awful offensive line. While they were among 2022’s worst units, additions such as No. 6 overall pick Paris Johnson Jr should help.
These shifting tides could set up Conner as a cheap RB who can put a team over the top. Going after the likes of handcuff RBs AJ Dillon, Antonio Gibson, and Tank Bigsby, Conner is available. If he fits your team and your goals for 2023, don’t hesitate to push your chips in.
For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
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