The month of August is all about hype. NFL training camp is in full swing, there are preseason games, and it’s easy to excited about certain players for the upcoming season. At this point, most fantasy football managers have a general idea of which players to draft. However, when drafting your winning rosters, what about the players to fade for the 2023 season? Our writers suggest a few players that may be a mistake of a pick based on their current cost.
Players to Fade for the 2023 Fantasy Football Season
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Fantrax Writer: Cliff Williams, @CliffWilliams_
As recently as 2021, Kupp was the top wide receiver in all of Fantasy Football. He led the league with touchdowns, receptions, total yardage, and yards per game. Kupp was catching those passes from Matthew Stafford, the league’s sixth-best quarterback that year. Stafford was at the top of his game passing for 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns. Last season, Kupp suffered a high ankle sprain and was shut down for the season after nine games. He finished the season as the WR20.
Ahead of the 2023 season, Cooper Kupp has an ADP of fifth overall. He is generally ranked as the WR3. As good as Kupp is, you should not be drafting him this high making him one of the biggest players to fade in fantasy football.
Since 2017, Kupp has topped 1,000 yards in only two of those years. He is being drafted like he will have another 1,900-yard season as he did in 2021. His projection, according to FantasyPros, is to have 1,344 yards receiving. That is only 50 yards less than Ja’Marr Chase. I just don’t see that kind of production happening with Kupp playing on a team with the 28th-ranked offensive line, coming off an injury, and catching passes from a quarterback returning from multiple injuries.
Cooper Kupp is now 30 years old. He has already come up lame with a hamstring injury in training camp practice. The Rams are saying that he will be good to go for Week 1. A big concern is at his age with ankle and hamstring-type injuries if they linger at all it could severely affect his production.
At Kupp’s ADP, I will be taking Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, or Austin Ekeler instead.
Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Fantrax Writer: Colin McTamany, @Colin_McT
Listing Davante Adams as one of the top players to fade feels wrong. He does have the most receiving touchdowns (43) in the league since the 2020 season. That includes 25 in the last two seasons on two different teams with two different quarterbacks. In fact, his 14 receiving touchdowns in 2022 are the second-most of his career in a single season.
However, Adams is expected to catch passes from Jimmy Garoppolo in 2023. That’s his third starting quarterback in as many seasons. Nine of Adams’ 14 touchdowns in 2022 with Derek Carr are from distances of 30 yards or more. Five of those nine scores are from distances of 45 yards or more.
Derek Carr’s intended air yards per pass attempt hasn’t dipped below 8.1 over the last three seasons. Jimmy Garoppolo’s intended air yards per pass attempt hasn’t surpassed 8.0 since 2018. In fact, he’s averaging 6.8 over the last four seasons. That’s just a sample of how much less Jimmy G. is willing to air it out compared to Derek Carr. Needless to say, I’m worried about Adam’s big play potential in 2023.
In two seasons of 15 games played or more, Garoppolo has supported a 1,000-yard pass catcher twice. In 2019, tight end George Kittle logged 1,053 yards. Meanwhile, in 2021, Deebo Samuel recorded 1,405. It’s worth noting, though, that 768 (54.5%) of Deebo’s are yards after the catch. Deebo ranks first in yards after the catch per reception in each of the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Davante Adam’s 4.9 yards after the catch average in that same span would rank 60th amongst all players in 2022.
Davante Adams remains one of the best receivers in the game. I’m just continuing to worry about his quarterback play. It’s also no guarantee Garoppolo is active for half of the season, let alone the full one, as he works back from a foot injury. All things considered, Adams has a safe floor due to his high expected volume of targets, but a player to fade with plenty of other up-and-coming elite options still on the board that have better quarterback play in better offenses.
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantrax Writer: Ray Kuhn, @ray_kuhn_28
Najee Harris is a compiler. Yes, he did battle injuries last season, but Harris also averaged just 61 rushing yards per game. There is something to be said for Harris taking the field in 17 games in his first two NFL seasons. However, on a per-game basis, that does not make me feel great.
At this point, we are looking at 2022 from the perspective of Harris’ total production. On a week-to-week basis, failing to score one of his 10 touchdowns, left fantasy managers wanting more. The argument could be made that following Pittsburgh’s bye in Week 9, Harris was quite consistent. Unfortunately, that’s not what I’m looking for at the top of my drafts.
From the perspective of projecting players to fade for the coming season, Harris stands out to me as someone to avoid in drafts. He has battled injuries thus far in his career, and having just one 100-plus yard game last season does not jump out to me. For more confirmation that Harris is simply a plodder, he had just one rush of more than 20 yards last season. He also has averages of just 3.9 and 3.8 yards per carry thus far in his career.
At the end of the season, assuming he plays close to, if not all, 17 games, Harris will likely finish with another 1,000-yard season. So, the overall production will be there. The problem though, is that fantasy football is not cumulative. When I slot my RB1, or maybe high-end RB2, into the lineup, I want them to have a clear advantage in upside against my opponent. Based on what we have seen from Harris to this point, that is not necessarily the case. Unless he finds a gear of explosiveness and big play ability, the upside is limited with Najee at his ADP.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Fantrax Writer: Brandon Blanco, @BrandonBlancoFF
It seems so long ago that DK Metcalf broke out and finished as the WR10 in points per game with over 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns. Since then, the “one coffee and two bags of candy” athlete has not lived up to that 2020 season.
In 2021, Metcalf had an ADP of 18.8 which had him as the WR6. He proceeded to finish as the WR20 even with 12 touchdowns. It did not get better in 2022 as Metcalf had an ADP of 48.3 and WR19 due to the lackluster 2021 season. Metcalf did not improve, even with a career-high in receptions, finishing as the WR24.
Now, Metcalf is the WR15 even having finished below his ADP the year before AND the Seahawks spent their first-round pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a receiver that was said to be better than Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Olave and Wilson said it themselves. Metcalf still has to deal with Tyler Lockett, the most underrated receiver of his time, and JSN.
It is not a discredit to what Metcalf can accomplish and do on the field. It is a credit to how good JSN is and how much of an impact he can make in his rookie season. He will take numerous targets away from Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf.
DK Metcalf is going to have to see a career year in the touchdown department and exceed 1,300 yards again if he is going to live up to his WR15 ADP in 2023 redraft leagues. Players such as Chris Olave, Joe Mixon, Lamar Jackson, and Travis Etienne are around Metcalf’s ADP. I’d rather draft them in confidence making Metcalf one of my players to fade this fantasy football season.
D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
Fantrax Writer: Reese Jones, @PotPharma
D.J. Moore has been a reliable fantasy football asset over the past few seasons, surpassing the 1,000-yard receiving mark three times so far in his career. However, his recent move to the Chicago Bears comes with some concerns that could lead to a disappointing fantasy output in the 2023 season.
For starters, Moore’s historical performance has been heavily reliant on volume, with him needing at least 118 targets to achieve his thousand-yard milestones. Given the Bears’ offensive dynamics (they run the damn ball too much), Moore’s chances of receiving even 100 targets this season are slim. Last season, Chicago’s leading receiver was tight end Cole Kmet with just 544 yards on only 69 targets! With Justin Fields at quarterback, the Bears offense has demonstrated a preference for targeting tight ends or slot receivers, particularly Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney.
Furthermore, Justin Fields is a run-first quarterback who may not prioritize Moore as the primary option in the passing game. Fields’ familiarity with Kmet and Mooney, combined with the Bears’ emphasis on a run-first mentality, might limit Moore’s opportunities to shine as the “WR1”.
Moore has yet to surpass seven touchdowns in a single season. Justin Fields has yet to have a single wide receiver score even five touchdowns. You do the math. Moore’s ADP as the WR20 suggests that he’s coming off of the board ahead of several other viable options, such as the duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, Drake London, Christian Kirk, Jordan Addison, and Brandin Cooks. These are all players that I believe will outperform D.J. Moore in 2023.
While D.J. Moore has proven himself as a talented receiver in the past, his move to Chicago and the specific dynamics of their offense makes him a risky fantasy option for the 2023 season. Considering the uncertainty around his target share, the quarterback’s tendency to favor the ole “tuck and run”, and his historical struggles with touchdowns, fantasy managers might be better off considering other options available at Moore’s ADP.
Miles Sanders, RB, Carolina Panthers
Fantrax Writer: Joe Goodwin, @JGoody77
Miles Sanders is one of my biggest players to fade this year for one reason: COST.
While I admit that opportunity and situation are essential for any player to be successful in fantasy football, Sanders was never given the number of reps in Philadelphia that the Carolina Panthers are about to give him. Is that because Sanders was misused in Philly? Perhaps it’s because the Eagles’ coaching staff didn’t think Sanders was effective with the workload he was given. My guess is a combination of both, but primarily his inability to be decisive when following blocks.
Last year, Miles Sanders had the luxury of running behind the best offensive line in football. He was still tackled for a loss 22 times. Sanders will not have that luxury this year. Although Carolina’s line is much improved, it is still not at the caliber of the Eagles. If fantasy managers are expecting to see Miles Sanders play like Christian McCaffrey in the passing attack, they may find disappointment. Miles Sanders only had a 3.9 yards-per-catch average last year.
One area Miles Sanders does shine is his pass protection. This will allow Miles Sanders to stay on the field in all situations. However, Sanders did not gain the trust of the Eagles’ coaching staff to warrant that type of snap share. Will Carolina see a different player in Sanders?
In last year’s biggest game against the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl, Miles Sanders ran seven times for 16 yards. That’s it. In the biggest game of the year, Kenneth Gainwell’s snaps outweighed Sanders’ 38 to 36.
Miles Sanders is coming off of the board as RB21 at an ADP of 74th overall. Running backs Rachaad White, Cam Akers, and Aaron Jones are all going after Miles Sanders. I prefer all three over Sanders. Other position players in that range I prefer are Jahan Dotson, Geno Smith, Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin, and Zay Flowers.
Miles Sanders may have a more prominent role in the Carolina Panther’s offense than his role in Philadelphia. However, at his current ADP, I do not believe in spending an early 7th-round pick on him. Miles Sanders has never shown the ability to handle a heavy workload with the best offensive line blocking for him. For the price of a 7th-round selection, Miles Sanders is one of the top players to fade at his current ADP.
For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
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