Welcome to Week 1 of the NFL season. To say there is excitement swirling is an understatement. That also means it is time to embark on another year of survivor picks. Lasting through the full 18 weeks of a survivor pool, or outlasting your competition, is harder than it may seem at first glance. Prior to the season, I broke down some survivor pool strategy tips, and now it is time to put that into action.
Each week throughout the season, I will break down both survivor picks I am tailing and fading. They will be ranked in ascending order of confidence. Some weeks will have more options than others based on the schedule, the teams we have taken, and the point in the season that we are at. Based on that, the direction of the picks will change throughout the year. As the season progresses, we will be forced to take more risks. Ultimately though, the methodology should remain the same.
Week 1 NFL Survivor Picks
Games to Tail
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings
The home team is favored by six points and to say there is a gaping hole under center for Tampa Bay would be an understatement.
Baker Mayfield won the starting job but it is clear that he is no Tom Brady. Ultimately, this game is going to come down to Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson, and the former was very underrated last season. Perhaps we should correct and qualify that to 1 p.m. games at home, but regardless, the production and chemistry should be there.
Dalvin Cook still needs to be replaced, but in the past, Alexander Mattison has proven to be a capable fill-in. Last season, the Vikings were 8-1 at home, and the expectation is for that to continue. That makes Minnesota my fourth survivor pick of the week.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
These are two teams moving in opposite directions, and after last season, that looks to be continuing.
All Seattle did was add high-upside players on both sides of the ball through the draft. At the very least, we know how difficult it is to play in Seattle, and that will only be amplified for Week 1.
After struggling through last year, things do not appear to be getting better for the Rams. Matthew Stafford is another year older, and to begin the season, he is not going to have Cooper Kupp to throw to. It will be difficult for Stafford to find success, especially against a strong defense, with Van Jefferson as his number one target. With that being said, the Seahawks will be a target among my survivor picks.
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders
We know that Kyler Murray will not be on the field for the Cardinals. At that point, does it really matter who starts under center? With that said, no disrespect is meant for Joshua Dobbs, but he is not exactly in a position to succeed.
The Cardinals were simply a mess last year and things are not any better this year. It does remain to be seen how strong Washington’s offense is as they break Sam Howell in under center. What Howell does have going for him, is talent at the skill positions. Terry McLaurin’s status is still in doubt, but with Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel out wide, he will have weapons. With Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson, Howell is also supported by a solid backfield.
Regardless of that, and even if Howell struggles, Washington should come out ahead in a defensive battle. Dealing with Chase Young will likely be too much for Dobbs and Arizona to handle. This will make the Commanders a popular survivor pick.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
It is not expected to be a smooth start to C.J. Stroud’s NFL career. In fact, that might be an understatement for the talented rookie. Despite adding Stroud, the Texans still have a long way to go on offense. While it is hard to judge based on the preseason, it is clear that Stroud has some adjusting to do at the NFL level.
Facing the Ravens, and in Baltimore nonetheless, is not the ideal landing spot for a rookie. While the Texans’ defense will be better, the Ravens’ offense has also improved heading into the 2023 season. J.K. Dobbins appears to be healthy and Lamar Jackson has new weapons in Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers.
While the Texans might show some flashes this season, expecting it to come in Week 1 is too high a hill to climb. Baltimore will be a popular survivor pick for this week.
Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position
Games to Fade
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
At 5.5 points, the Jaguars are one of the biggest favorites of the week. They are a popular team entering the season after their insane comeback in the postseason last year and then hanging close against Kansas City. With that being said, I like to stay away from divisional games, especially when you are picking against the home team.
There is no disputing that Jacksonville is the better team and they will have a strong season, but anything can happen. The Colts are the inferior team and breaking in a rookie quarterback, Anthony Richardson, but they also have a new head coach and nothing to lose. For me, the cautious play is to avoid the Jaguars with one of my survivor picks.
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs
The point spread on this has come down drastically thanks to Travis Kelce’s injury (from 6.5 to four points), so the money is already moving this way. It is hard to fade the Chiefs to begin the season, especially at home, but the Lions are another popular team this season.
Kansas City is likely without Chris Jones, and likely Travis Kelce, and it is hard to have a great feeling about this. Even if we are being a little too cautious in fading the Chiefs as a survivor pick, we will have ample situations to use them later in the year.