Week 5 Flex Rankings: Taylor and Kupp Return and Fallout

Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season is already shaping up to be an interesting one. It is the first week where we have teams on a bye, which is always an issue for fantasy managers to navigate. And of course, we have the usual injury concerns to deal with. But Week 5 could be quite a boon for fantasy managers as well. It may mark the return of two elite talents at their respective positions in Jonathan Taylor and Cooper Kupp. Both were first-round fantasy picks in the spring before their ADPs plummeted due to concerns about their playing time. So where do these players land in my Week 5 Flex rankings? And what do their potential returns mean for the likes of Zack Moss and Puka Nacua? Read below to get my thoughts, because some of the rankings themselves will likely change between now and Sunday.

Running Back Notes

Jonathan Taylor returned to practice as a full participant on Wednesday and appears fully recovered from his ankle injury. Recent reports have suggested that the relationship between Taylor and the Colts is on the mend after a contentious offseason. That would be great news for those who bought the dip when it looked as though the two parties were on the outs. Taylor led all running backs in fantasy points in 2021. We are talking about an elite talent here. And the thought of Taylor paired alongside dynamic dual-threat quarterback Anthony Richardson has fantasy managers salivating. I think Taylor has tremendous upside and potential going forward this season. However, I am a bit skeptical as to what that means for his Week 5 outlook.
First, though Taylor is apparently healthy, he has not logged an NFL carry in over 10 months. That is quite a layoff. I do not think it is realistic to expect him to get 20 touches right away.

The Colts will likely ease him into game action, and Zack Moss and Richardson may cut into his workload. The matchup for the Colts ground game is not exactly one to lean into from a fantasy perspective, either. Tennessee allows the fewest yards per rush of any team in the NFL. Even when Taylor was rolling, he has struggled historically against the Titans. Taylor has finished outside the top 20 weekly fantasy backs in four of five career matchups against Tennessee. He has also never recorded more than 70 rushing yards in a single game versus the Titans.

I currently have Taylor ranked as my RB32 for Week 5. I concede that I will most likely move him up a few spots in the coming days. However, I do not anticipate putting him in my top 20 as things currently sit. Tennessee is a pass funnel defense, and Taylor should split carries with Richardson and Moss. Taylor will probably end up being a borderline Week 5 Flex play for me. Given Taylor’s upside and considering four teams have a bye, I can get on board with starting him. I just do not believe it is a no-brainer. As for Moss, I have him slightly below Taylor, and that gap will probably widen between now and Sunday. Moss’s value was mostly tied into top-tier volume, and that should dissipate now that Taylor is back in the fold.

Wide Receiver Notes

Like Taylor, Cooper Kupp led his position in fantasy scoring in 2021. And like Taylor, Kupp has missed the first four weeks of the 2023 season. Kupp suffered a hamstring injury early in camp, then reaggravated the issue about a month later. The Rams designated him to return to practice this week. Kupp practiced on Wednesday and looks to be in good shape. The risk for reinjury seems high, but I think you have to play Kupp if he is active and hope for the best. Having said that, I view Kupp as similar to Taylor in that I do not think you can assume he instantly returns to his pre-injury form or, perhaps more importantly, workload.

Kupp has averaged over 11 targets per game since the 2021 season. That volume is not going to be there, at least not right away. I currently have Kupp ranked as my WR30 for the week. That means you are likely starting him in 12-team leagues with three receivers and a Flex. But I do think expectations should be tempered. The Rams will probably keep Kupp on a “pitch count” given the nature of his injury. He and quarterback Matthew Stafford have such a great rapport that I think Kupp can still be a fantasy asset with limited opportunities. However, the weekly ceiling that Kupp often reached over the past couple of years has been dramatically lowered.

Many fantasy managers wonder how Kupp’s return affects everyone’s new favorite toy, Puka Nacua. It is worth noting that Nacua finished as the WR37 in the one game he saw single-digit targets. However, I still expect Nacua to be Stafford’s go-to guy in Week 5. He has already recorded three top-10 weekly finishes this season and has earned the trust of both Stafford and head coach Sean McVay. Nacua should be entrenched as an integral part of the Rams’ offense. I still have him as a WR1 this week. Kupp’s return is more likely to impact Tutu Atwell, who enters Week 5 as the overall WR21. Atwell may be relegated to reprise last year’s role as a deep threat rather than see the 21.9 percent target share he has enjoyed over the first four weeks of this season. Atwell is a borderline Week 5 Flex play for me.

Tight End Notes

The Week 5 byes do not have a dramatic effect on the tight end landscape. Only one top-15 tight end in year-to-date fantasy scoring is on bye this week. That is Donald Parham, who has benefited from an inordinate amount of touchdown luck. Parham put up a goose egg last week in addition to a 1.2-point performance in Week 2. There are a few borderline fantasy starters who are out of action this week due to bye weeks. Players on this list include David Njoku, Noah Fant, Cade Otton, and Gerald Everett. I would at least hope that you have another option on your roster to plug in this week if you are relying on any of those tight ends. But if you need a tight end who is widely available, consider Jonnu Smith of the Atlanta Falcons.

At the risk of triggering everyone who has Kyle Pitts on their roster, Jonnu Smith enters Week 5 as the overall TE10 in half-PPR scoring. Trust me, I didn’t believe it either when I first saw it. Pitts, by the way, ranks 29th. I do not know if either of those rankings will hold going forward. But Smith seems to have earned a role in this offense, and one that is quite possibly more fantasy-friendly than Pitts’. Pitts has an aDOT (average depth of target) of 11.9 yards. Smith’s is 7.05. As a result, Smith has caught 75 percent of his targets, while Pitts has reeled in 52.4 percent. Pitts has way more big-play upside, and thus a higher fantasy ceiling. However, I think Smith is a viable PPR play both in Week 5 and potentially moving forward.

Week 5 Flex Rankings

Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty