With another week down, let’s keep things going. We have another week of survivor picks on tap for you, so follow along. Let’s continue to sweat along with our survivor picks as we progress through the season. While we never want to jinx ourselves, but Week 6 was perfect as we went 4-0 with our picks and 1-0 on our fades. This week has six teams on bye, so things will be a little more interesting.
As the season continues, the good news is that we begin to receive more information to help with the decision-making process. Let us move forward and look at survivor picks for Week 7 of the NFL season. Prior to the season, I broke down some survivor pool strategy tips, and now it is time to put that into action.
Each week throughout the season, I will break down both survivor picks I am tailing and fading. They will be ranked in ascending order of confidence. Some weeks will have more options than others based on the schedule, the teams we have taken, and the point in the season that we are at. Based on that, the direction of the picks will change throughout the year. As the season progresses, we will be forced to take more risks. Ultimately though, the methodology should remain the same.
The assumption is that we will be working off four lines each week. My picks for each line will be broken out, as team scarcity will come into play the further we get into the year.
Week 7 NFL Survivor Picks
Games to Tail
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Regardless of what is said, there has to be some concern about the status of Justin Herbert’s hand. Additionally, the Chargers haven’t seemed to have a replacement in line for Mike Williams so that makes things tough offensively.
While the Chiefs are 5-1 through their first six games, you could make the argument that they have yet to really hit their stride. Despite that, Kansas City is ranked fourth in the league in total yards but they are ninth with 24.5 points per game. This week, they face a Chargers team that is allowing the second most yards per game at 420.4. To take a step further, they are the worst team in the league with 289 passing yards allowed, and things are shaping up for a monster game from Patrick Mahomes.
The focus with Kansas City will also be on the offense, but their defense is ranked second in the league with 14.7 points per game allowed. That alone would make them one of our survivor picks.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Division games always give us a little more cause for concern, and those on the road are even worse. When you factor in Bill Belichick on the other sideline, our attention is piqued.
However, the Patriots and Mac Jones have simply looked terrible to begin the season. In fact, Jones is on borrowed time in the starting lineup at this point. Averaging 12 points per game is just not going to get it done offensively or generate much fear. That then looks worse when you have a defense allowing 25.3 points per game.
When you couple that with a Buffalo team scoring 28.8 and allowing 14.8 points per game, it becomes pretty obvious in what direction things are heading. Everything relating to Josh Allen’s shoulder appears to be in order so that helps. The Bills were lucky to emerge from last week with a win, and the expectation is that they come out determined in Week 7 and pick up a clean victory as one of our survivor picks.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
We know it is difficult to play in Seattle, and that is what the Cardinals have to deal with this week. In the Seahawks, they face a well-rested team coming off their bye week that should be very prepared to take the field.
Last week the Cardinals looked terrible in a 26-9 loss to the Rams and with one victory on the season, it is difficult to expect much more from them this week. With their best offensive player, James Conner, sidelined, the Cardinals are struggling to generate much of anything on the ground. While Joshua Dobbs has done a solid job as a stopgap, Arizona ranks 20th in the league with 19.5 points per game.
The big issue though is the Arizona defense as they allow 27 points per game and rank 29th with 400 yards allowed per game. Geno Smith is having another solid season for the Seahawks and Kenneth Walker gives them a solid dual threat. At eighth in the league with 24.8 points per game, Seattle shouldn’t have any issues moving the ball.
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
Both teams are coming off a loss, but they meant different things to each team. From the perspective of San Francisco, it was an absolute disappointment to fall to a backup quarterback in Cleveland. Minnesota’s loss in Chicago was a different type of disappointment as they just looked dreadful.
While the Browns were on their third quarterback of the season, they do have a strong defense and a solid run game. The previously unbeaten 49ers had to deal with injuries to both Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. Having an extra day with the game on Monday helps here, as it is possible we see both take the field. If not, the 49ers do have depth in the form of Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason in the backfield and Brandon Aiyuk as a receiver. And if there are offensive issues, San Francisco’s defense is positioned to carry them.
A large part of San Francisco’s success this season has come from their defense allowing the fewest points (14.5) and fifth-fewest yards (295.8) yards in the league. For an offense that ranks 17th in the league with 21.5 points scored, that will be a problem. When you then factor in that Minnesota is averaging just 75 rushing yards per game, third worst in the league, there are some issues. The fact that Minnesota is without Justin Jefferson doesn’t make things any easier.
And did we mention that this is a primetime game for Kirk Cousins? We know those are not ideal, to say the least, for the Minnesota signal caller. The 49ers losing last week is the worst thing that could have happened for the Vikings as a bounce-back effort is in the store for the better team. That makes San Francisco one of our survivor picks.
Games to Fade
With no other games currently (as of Wednesday night) sporting spreads of more than three points, there is nothing to truly fade here.
Survivor Picks
Line 1
Kansas City, Philadelphia, Miami, Buffalo, San Francisco
Line 2
Washington, Buffalo, San Francisco, Kansas City, Detroit, Miami, Seattle
Line 3
Kansas City, Buffalo
Line 4
Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City
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