NASCAR DFS: 4EVER 400 Picks

The NASCAR Cup Series runs through South Florida this weekend! Homestead-Miami Speedway plays host for this weekend’s playoff action. Kyle Larson claimed victory last week in Las Vegas. Truthfully, if there were one or two more laps, Christopher Bell may have won that race. But with two races until the championship in Phoenix, this may be the best race we see over the next couple of weeks. Despite winning last week, Larson shapes up to be a phenomenal play once again. However, we cannot sleep on the Toyotas. They’ve looked great in this intermediate package. Homestead-Miami is a true “drivers” track. It has multiple grooves. We will see tire management come into play. Speed certainly helps, but this track usually caters to the best drivers. Here are the 4EVER 400 picks for Sunday’s NASCAR DFS contests.

4EVER 400 Picks: The Top 10

1. Martin Truex Jr. (#19 Joe Gibbs Racing)
2. Bubba Wallace (#23 23XI Racing)
3. Tyler Reddick (#45 23XI Racing)
4. Brad Keselowski (#6 RFK Racing)
5. Kyle Larson (#5 Hendrick Motorsports)
6. Austin Dillon (#3 Richard Childress Racing)
7. William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports)
8. Ross Chastain (#1 Trackhouse Racing)
9. Ty Gibbs (#54 Joe Gibbs Racing)
10. Ryan Blaney (#12 Team Penske)

As fate would have it, four of the six Toyotas are in the top 10. And all of them are in the top 13. They’ve nailed the setup for this package all year and look to have done it again for Homestead. In this week’s NASCAR DFS Preview, we noted how this track has multiple grooves and high tire wear. It’s a nice blend of Darlington, Kansas, Vegas, and Auto Club. The Toyotas should thrive once again. Kyle Larson won last week but this is one of his favorite tracks. He loves running the high line along the wall and he flat out dominated this race in 2022. When building out NASCAR DFS lineups, we’ll likely want two drivers in this list. The obvious candidates to get out front and lead laps from this group are Martin Truex Jr., Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, and William Byron.

Which Value-Priced 4EVER 400 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?

DraftKings

• AJ Allmendinger – $7,000; Starting P25
• Aric Almirola – $6,900; Starting P30
• Ryan Preece – $6,100; Starting P29
• Ty Dillon – $5,000; Starting P33

FanDuel

• Joey Logano – $7,800; Starting P36
• Kevin Harvick – $7,400; Starting P22
• AJ Allmendinger – $5,800; Starting P25
• Aric Almirola – $5,200; Starting P30
• Ryan Preece – $4,800; Starting P29

Another week where FanDuel botches salary. Joey Logano is arguably a Cash game lock on both sites. He wrecked during practice and will go to a backup car. You can eat the chalk and just play him in double-ups since everyone else will too. Kevin Harvick is underpriced again on FanDuel. He has top 10 upside as we’ve documented several times. However, a more realistic expectation might be a top 15. This race is named in recognition of his career as driver of the 4-car. A.J. Allmendinger is really the only other value play I feel confident in. Almirola and Preece are okay. But the Fords, aside from RFK Racing, Blaney, and maybe Harvick, have struggled with this aero package. Allmendinger does have a solid resume here. I’m comfortable playing him in any format.

Which Higher-Priced Drivers Got A Similar Bump?

• Kyle Busch – Starting P18
• Chris Buescher – Starting P17
• Joey Logano – Starting P36 (DraftKings)
• Kevin Harvick – Starting P22 (DraftKings)

We’ve already touched on Logano and Harvick. They’re better point-per-dollar plays on FanDuel because of how FanDuel prices drivers. On DraftKings you can still eat the cash game chalk with Logano. As far as tournaments go, Buescher might be my preferred target. RFK has done well with this package. Keselowski qualified P4 after all. Buescher did have a surprising run here a couple of years ago where he managed to lead a ton of laps. Additionally, we’ve already seen him win twice three times this year. All four drivers likely garner significant ownership. Chase Elliott, who isn’t listed, starts P16 and is still in contention for the owner’s championship.

4EVER 400 Picks

DraftKings

• Kyle Larson – $11,500; Starting P5
• Chris Buescher – $8,800; Starting P17
• Joey Logano – $8,500; Starting P36
• Erik Jones – $7,200; Starting P19
• AJ Allmendinger – $7,000; Starting P25
• Austin Dillon – $6,400; Starting P6

This is strictly a GPP-only type build. There’s no way we play Austin Dillon in cash games. But as discussed in the preview article for this race, he’s surprisingly done well here. This build goes with Larson as the solo dominator. It’s risky, but he did dominate this race last year. This tweet from Ryan with iFantasyRace highlights how fast Larson was in comparison to drivers who practiced in better conditions. Regarding Buescher and Jones, it’s more of a gut play. Buescher and his team have been great this year. Buescher has even surprised previously with his runs on high tire wear tracks. And when it comes to Jones, he’s historically great at Darlington and could contend for a top 10. We eat the PD chalk with Joey Logano because let’s face it, if he finishes 17^th he’s returning value. This lineup has $600 left over for pivots.

FanDuel

• Kyle Larson – $14,000; Starting P5
• Denny Hamlin – $12,000; Starting P11
• Kyle Busch – $10,500; Starting P18
• Kevin Harvick – $7,400; Starting P22
• AJ Allmendinger – $5,800; Starting P25

This lineup only leaves $300 on the table. So not a ton of room for pivots without blowing the whole thing up. But we have win equity up top with Larson and Hamlin. Homestead plays to Larson’s strengths. And the Toyotas have been outstanding in this package. So Hamlin gets the nod with a little position differential to boot. And we go back to the well with Allmendinger because he’s affordable and has top 15 potential. Harvick and Busch are two drivers you plug in and hope for a top 10. I don’t have a ton of confidence in Busch. Despite the three wins this year, he just feels like a disappointment lately. But the starting spot is good. His practice speeds also indicate he may have a top-10 ride.

White Flag Thoughts Before You Go

Sunday’s 4EVER 400 highlights the final intermediate race of the season. While the last two races will no doubt be exciting, the pure racing in the intermediate package is second to none. If you need a better idea of the playoff standings, then you can reference this page. Despite already locking up his spot in the championship, Larson is a racer. It doesn’t matter what he’s racing, when he’s racing, or where he’s racing. He wants to win every single race. Homestead is perfect for his style of driving so it would surprise nobody if he went back-to-back at this track. Enjoy Sunday’s race as this track delivers great action every year. Best of luck and I hope you all build that bankroll!