To a degree, this is going to be an ever-evolving endeavor throughout the week. As you prepare for Sunday Night Football, there will always be specific plays you like and wish to target. NFL player props will stand out to you, and at the moment, you should capitalize on them. As news changes throughout the week, these markets will move as well, so lock in your player prop picks as you see them.
Each week, I will take a look at four NFL player prop targets on DraftKings for Sunday Night Football and provide some commentary about them. Please be aware though, that these are subject to market movements.
NFL Player Props
Joe Burrow, Over 272.5 Passing Yards, -125
After getting injured in Training Camp, it has been a bumpy start to the season for Joe Burrow. Now that we are about halfway through the season, things seem to be turning a corner. Last week, Burrow completed 28 of 32 passes for 283 yards and three touchdowns. It came in a victory over a tough San Francisco team.
This week, Burrow faces the Bills in a primetime matchup at home. For multiple reasons, there is going to be a lot of buzz here. At 272.5 the player props for Burrow’s passing yards appear to be a reasonable market. While it has only happened once so far this season, Burrow can easily break the 300-yard mark on a weekly basis. Cincinnati is committed to Burrow and the passing game. It also helps here that the Bills pass defense has been reeling as of late.
Josh Allen, Anytime Touchdown, +165
At this point, no one needs to emphasize Josh Allen’s ability as a runner. So far this season, Allen has five rushing touchdowns through eight games. To dig a little deeper, Allen has a rushing touchdown in five of his last six games. It is clear that Allen is Buffalo’s best goal-line option on the ground.
This is a big game tonight against the Bengals, and the expectation is that Buffalo will throw everything they have at it. Ultimately, that means utilizing Allen’s legs as well as his arms. Considering the recent trend for Allen, this presents a nice value amongst our player props.
Dalton Kincaid, Over 38.5 Passing Yards, -135
The expectation here is that it is going to be a high-scoring game. Both teams should be locked in here.
With respect to Dalton Kincaid, the recovery has been playing more of a role in Buffalo’s offense as of late. Given the talent base and pedigree, this should not come as a surprise. After all, Buffalo did draft in the first round of this year’s draft.
Coming off Buffalo’s bye week, Kincaid has truly been one of the top options at the position. Starting with New England, Kincaid caught all eight of his targets for 75 yards. Last week, the rookie picked up his first career touchdown against Tampa Bay. He caught five of seven passes for 65 yards along the way. Things should be easier this week for Kincaid as the Bengals are in the top five of allowed points to opposing tight ends.
Joe Mixon, Over 62.5 Rushing Yards, -115
Once Joe Mixon got past 56 and 59 rushing yards in the first two games of the season, he has hit his player props in all but one week. Aside from a tough matchup against Seattle, Mixon has been a strong contributor to Cincinnati’s offense.
There is no question about the distribution of labor here, and that is a very good thing. While the Bengals’ game plan will focus heavily on Burrow, things will start with Joe Mixon and attempting the control the possession. On the season, Mixon is averaging four yards per carry, so 16 carries gets him there with minimal effort. As Cincinnati looks to keep Allen off the field, that is realistic.
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