I feel like this week’s props are going to be a bit contrary to popular opinion. That is not necessarily a bad thing. I have been crushing CLV (closing line value) all season long, but have a middling record to show for it. So maybe switching up the mojo a bit can get us back on track. Since these picks might go against conventional wisdom, it may be more prudent to wait a day or two to play these. We may get a better price or even a better number based on how I expect the market to behave over the next 48 hours or so. Either way, this is what I am rolling out. Here are my favorite Week 10 NFL Player Props.
Week 10 NFL Player Props
Michael Pittman Jr. OVER 5.5 Receptions (TBD)
I am writing this week’s article a bit earlier than I normally do. Because of that, I have not seen a line on this yet. But Pittman’s receiving yard number is in the low 60s depending on which sportsbook you use. Therefore, I expect them to set his receptions at 5.5. I am all over it at that number for a couple of reasons. Since Gardner Minshew took over as Indianapolis’ starting quarterback four games ago, he has targeted Pittman 40 times. That is already a high number, but even higher when you realize he has attempted a relatively low number of passes (145) in that span. That gives Pittman a 27.6 percent target share, which is a massive number. Pittman has eight or more receptions in three of those four games, as well as six of nine overall this season.
The matchup itself should also lend itself to a bit more passing from the Colts. They are facing the New England Patriots in Week 10. New England is fifth in the NFL in defensive rushing DVOA but ranks just 23rd against the pass. Jack Jones should be back this week, but as a group, none of New England’s cornerbacks have been particularly effective this season. Pittman lines up all over the formation, so he does not appear in jeopardy of being shadowed. His yardage has been a bit of a hit-or-miss proposition, which is why I prefer taking the Over 5.5 receptions as my favorite Week 10 NFL player prop. Pittman has three separate games this year in which he has caught eight balls but failed to record 65 receiving yards.
C.J. Stroud to Throw an Interception (+130, DraftKings)
I realize this pick will not be especially popular with the player prop crowd. After all, C.J. Stroud has thrown just one interception in eight NFL games. But that makes me like it more because I believe negative regression could be headed Stroud’s way this week. And that is especially true when diving into the data.
The Cincinnati Bengals pressure the quarterback at a rate of 35 percent this year. That is the eighth-highest mark in the league. For as good as Stroud has been, he has been much worse when pressured so far in his rookie campaign. When kept clean, Stroud has been elite. He has a passer rating of 118.1 and a PFF grade of 92.2 including a 0.9 percent turnover-worthy play rate. When he has been pressured, it has been a different story. Under those circumstances, Stroud has a passer rating of 63.7, and a PFF grade of 37.5 including a 5.4 percent turnover-worthy play percentage. For reference, Jimmy Garoppolo leads Stroud in all three of those metrics when pressured.
Cincinnati’s defense has been opportunistic, particularly of late. On the season, they have 11 interceptions, which is tied for second-most in the NFL. They have recorded at least one interception in seven of eight games And during their four-game winning streak, they have picked off seven passes. That includes multiple interceptions in three of those four games. This feels like a situation where the Texans are about to move up to a higher weight class after playing four straight games against the NFC South. Cincinnati is a seven-point favorite, which could lead to Stroud attempting to force the issue. I believe the Bengals will get Stroud to make some poor decisions, and I am expecting at least one of those to result in an interception in Week 10.
Dak Prescott OVER 242.5 Passing Yards (-114, Barstool)
I know what you are probably thinking because I thought it too at first. You do not want to take a quarterback to go over his passing yards in a game they should dominate. That is a fair point, as Dallas is a 17-point favorite against Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants. As I said, I initially had the same inclination. Those are not circumstances under which I would normally advocate for a quarterback to put up big numbers. But here is why I am taking this prop. Dak Prescott has gone over this number in six of eight games this year, including six of his last seven. Dallas won three of those games by at least 23 points, and Prescott surpassed this total in all three of them. And there is even more to like.
In each of the last two instances in which Dallas coasted to victory, they completely obliterated both opponents early on. They led New England 28-3 at the half and had a 33-3 second-quarter advantage against the Los Angeles Rams. In both of those games, they only had nine offensive possessions, in part because their defense scored on their own. Dallas scored two defensive touchdowns in their victory against the Patriots and added one more pick-six against the Rams. And yet, Dak Prescott recorded at least 261 passing yards in each game. Mike McCarthy has realized that utilizing Tony Pollard as a workhorse back ain’t it. They need to rely on Prescott, almost regardless of what the scoreboard says. I would prefer a first-half passing yardage line if I can find it. But for now, give me Dak Prescott to throw for at least 243 yards in this matchup.
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