My hope is that everyone continues to be profitable playing NFL DFS even if the math says that’s impossible. Regardless, last week is in the past and we have a new week of action in front of us. My intention is to help you make Week 12 of NFL DFS a week to remember as you finish in the green. With that being said, let us jump right into my top Week 12 DFS picks.
Each week, I will take a look at one option at each position that can be a nice piece in your lineup. Additionally, I will provide one stud and one value option to target along with one expected bust.
NFL Week 12 DFS Picks
Quarterback
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, $6,900
With six games excluded from the main slate, there are going to be some interesting choices this week. When it comes to Kyler Murray, I wouldn’t classify it as truly interesting, but it is a little more of a pay-up than normally featured here. From a GPP perspective, you can certainly take some chances and truly save some salary cap space, but there is also a fair amount of risk.
In the two games since his return, Kyler Murray hasn’t shown much in the way of rust. Whatever rust and adjustments he needs to make in the passing game, Murray has made up for with a rushing touchdown in each game. Last week though, Murray did connect on a long-distance touchdown pass with Rondale Moore. While we never want to chase a rushing touchdown, Murray hasn’t been shy in using his legs which helps to cover up any struggles. While the statistics haven’t completely been there, Murray has made some impressive throws.
Running Back
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers, $5,400
Over the past few weeks, it has become clear that Jaylen Warren has overtaken Najee Harris in Pittsburgh’s backfield. While helped by a 74-yard touchdown burst, Warren now has back-to-back 100-plus rushing yard games under his belt. Warren also added three receptions for another 16 yards, and he will continue to have an increasingly larger role in the Steelers’ offense.
Overall, Warren has 493 rushing yards on 80 carries as he continues to rip off big plays while being efficient with his touches. As those touches increase, so will his performance. Warren continues to earn more work, and he should receive it.
Wide Receiver
Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers, $7,300
The veteran has been revitalized by the move to Carolina this season. Despite the struggles of Bryce Young, the rookie quarterback has seemingly forged a connection with Adam Thielen.
It’s a great matchup this week for Thielen against the Tennessee Titans as he should keep the momentum going. If you are looking to poke a hole into Thielen’s game, he does have just four touchdowns, but it’s not for lack of trying. Through 10 games, Thielen has already been targeted 97 times which has translated to 76 catches for 726 yards. Even as the Panthers struggle, Thielen has yet to catch less than five passes in a game since Week 1.
Tight End
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $3,200
As the season progresses, Cade Otton has seen his role increase in Tampa Bay’s offense. Last week, Otton led the Buccaneers with 49 receiving yards on four catches. Only once in his last five games has Otton been targeted less than five times as he continues to progress. The offense isn’t incredibly prolific, but Otton fills a solid role in the middle of the field for Baker Mayfield. It is a decent matchup on Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts and Otton fits nicely into all lineups.
Defense
Houston Texans, $2,600
While we are saving some salary cap space, let’s just go right down to the bottom of the list and target the cheapest. The Houston Texans have a solid matchup on Sunday against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that has struggled on offense this season. Jacksonville is allowing opposing defenses to finish in the Top-10 so far this season as Trevor Lawrence has struggled. With seven interceptions and seven fumble recoveries, the Texans do a solid job of creating turnovers while allowing 21 points per game. Houston has 24 sacks through 10 games and can pick up a few extra points by getting to the quarterback.
DFS Stud
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills, $8,800
We know that the Buffalo Bills offense is having some issues, and it’s unclear whether or not they have been fixed. Last week, the Bills handled the New York Jets without issue, so we really didn’t get to see if they have made any adjustments. It is worth noting though that Stefon Diggs did lead the Bills with eight targets. In what was a tough matchup, he only turned that into four catches for 27 yards.
Despite that, it has been a strong season for Diggs with 77 catches for 895 yards and seven touchdowns in 11 games. This week, Diggs has one of the most favorable matchups for wide receivers against the Eagles. It figures to be a high-scoring game as well, so Diggs is in a great position to bounce back.
DFS Value
Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts, $4,800
Following the Colts’ bye week and two weeks of dealing with a knee injury, Josh Downs appears to be fully healthy and ready to find his groove once again. In those two games, Downs had just a combined three catches for 50 yards, but prior to that, there was clear chemistry with Gardner Minshew.
When he was last healthy, Downs had 12 catches for 197 yards and a touchdown, and that is the pace we expect him to resume. There is also something to like about his matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they allow the fourth most DraftKings points to opposing receivers.
DFS Bust
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams, $8,000
With Cooper Kupp limited in practice this week with an ankle injury, we might be cheating here to a point, but there is more to it. Kupp has not caught a touchdown pass since Week 6, and assuming he does play, he’s likely not going to be 100%. Taking last week, when he got injured, out of the equation, things have not been good for Kupp as of late. In three games, he has just eight catches for 98 yards, and that is not going to cut it at any price.
More Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty