Hey folks, welcome back to Slappers and Bangers, where we look at fantasy hockey through a multi-cat lens; specifically for limited keeper and dynasty leagues. This week we’ll do a fantasy analysis of Lawson Crouse and Matt Boldy.
Fantasy hockey managers have pined over a Crouse breakout. It officially happened last year but so far this year, it appears Crouse has more to give. Whereas, Boldy entered the NHL with a splash. Until recently, Boldy had been anything but impressive with the Wild this year.
So let’s pop the hood on both and see what may be in store for the rest of the season and possibly beyond.
Let’s dive in.
Fantasy Hockey Analysis of Lawson Crouse
Crouse always had offensive upside. It’s just that no one expected it to take this long for him to get there.
He was 6’4″ and 212 lbs in his draft year. His ability to skate and use his big frame was a big reason the Florida Panthers drafted him 11th overall in 2015. He also represented Team Canada at the World Junior Championships in 2014-15 and 2015-16. It was his blend of power and skill that made him such an attractive power forward to anyone who watched him play.
Drafted in 2015, Crouse didn’t produce a 30-point season until 2021-22. It was starting to look like Crouse would never reach his potential.
It was 2021-22 that started to give fantasy owners hope. He scored 20 goals and averaged two shots on goal per game for the first time in his career. it was also the first time he averaged over half a point per game in a season; a .52, 43-point pace.
In 2022-23, he kicked it up a notch. The big improvement was sustaining that production over a full season, which also resulted in a new career-high in goals (24) and points (45).
It was game 60 last season that Crouse passed his ‘Big Man’ breakout threshold, it didn’t change his production at all. His production was identical in the fourth quarter as it was in the first and second quarters (12 points in 20 games).
Enter 2023-24. Crouse is on pace to again set career highs. His 13 goals through the first 27 games put him on pace for 39 goals. His .70 points per game put him on pace for 57 points. It’s unlikely he will sustain the goal-scoring pace. Hitting 30 goals though, is within reach. Crouse has also increased his shots on goal per game, 2.4 – 197.
His ice time hasn’t increased and he is still seeing 33% of his time on the power play. No changes. His power-play production has improved, with five points. He had eight all of last season.
Crouse’s individual point percentage at both five-on-five and the power-play is in line with his last two seasons. Even his five-on-five shooting percentage, at 9.2%, is his lowest of the last three.
If anything his secondary assist rate is way too low, sitting at 16.7%. It should be closer to last year, 37%. That only accounts for two extra points. Not a game-breaking total by any means. It does indicate room for a little bit more.
His shooting percentage is elevated at 20%. Although, he has demonstrated an ability to shoot a consistent 15%. On a team with more offensive ability, this may not regress to 15%.
And then there are the hits Crouse brings. He averages over two per game. Fantasy owners would roster Crouse for his hits alone. Now, he is presenting 30-goal, 60-point potential.
What we’re seeing now is generally what I expect Crouse to provide moving forward. Granted, if he ever moves onto the first power play with Clayton Keller and Logan Cooley, we may need to reconfigure our expectations.
After waiting seven years, I will take a 30-goal, 30 assists, sixty-point season with 170-plus hits.
Fantasy Analysis of Matt Boldy
How quickly things can change. It was only a couple of short weeks ago that owners were panicking about the lack of goals and offense Boldy was providing. He looked uninspired, to say the least.
With one goal in his first twelve games, one would think the sky was falling, given the reactions in the media. He did have seven assists, so he hadn’t disappeared completely.
The coaching change though, really turned his season around. With seven goals in his last eight games, all is right with the world again.
Boldy walked into the league with 17 goals, 39 points in 47 games, a 30-goal, 68-point pace. Last year, he scored 30 goals for the first time. Even with his slow start, Boldy is on pace for 30 goals.
Boldy has seen a drop in his overall ice time, by 1:38 per game. This reduction is directly tied to the new coach. Before the coaching change, Boldy was playing 18-21 minutes a game most nights. I wasn’t expecting to find that in my digging.
It isn’t unusual to manage a young player’s ice time. The rigors of a full season take its toll. Come playoffs, the body is worn down from all the hits and abuse. Ninety seconds a game equals over five games of 16:45 ice time. That’s a world of difference in a body.
So far, there’s no impact on his offense. He is rolling along just above career averages. Like Crouse, his secondary assist rate is low. Usually, a player picks up a few assists from sheer luck. The averages haven’t fully swung in Boldy’s favor yet. There are a few points to come from bounces and the skill of his teammates over the next two-thirds of the year.
As he approaches game 200, we may see a slight uptick in his production. He should wind up between 70 and 75 points this year.
Boldy owners need to look to 2024-25. He will start the year squarely on his breakout threshold. For Boldy to break out as a 70-point player he needs to improve his offense by 25%. This puts him in the 85-90 point range.
There’s no reason Boldy won’t get there. In fact, with his consistency in his first three seasons, he may not top out there. There’s a big season looming in Boldy’s near future. The problem is, anyone who owns him knows it too.
That’s it for this week. Thanks for reading.
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