Hey folks, welcome back to Slappers and Bangers, where we look at fantasy hockey through a multi-cat lens; specifically for limited keeper and dynasty leagues. This week we will do a fantasy analysis of Anthony Mantha and Vladimir Tarsenko.
The fantasy hockey world has moved on from Mantha, but should they have? Meanwhile, the fantasy hockey world’s love affair with Tarasenko has faded, now he’s viewed with marginal value, but should we re-evaluate?
Let’s dive in and find some answers.
Slappers and Bangers
Fantasy Analysis of Anthony Mantha, LW, Washington Capitals
When you have a nickname like ‘Monster,’ big things are expected. At 6’5″ and 234 pounds, it doesn’t take long to figure out where the nickname comes from. Add five goals and six assists in seven games at the 2014 World Junior Champions to his 57-goal and 63-assist, 120-point, 2013-14 season and the hype train takes shape.
Twice in his eight-year career (excluding 2023-24, it’s not over yet) Mantha has averaged over .70 points per game. Twice, Mantha has averaged over three shots on goal per game. Only once, has Mantha played more than 67 games in an NHL season.
And there folks, is the crux of Anthony Mantha, his health.
In 2019-20, Mantha averaged .88 points per game. Fantasy owners were rejoicing and marking the emergence of ‘Monster-Mantha.’ At season’s end, he had 38 points. Due to injuries and COVID-19, he only played 43 games.
Mantha has never lived up to the hype for various reasons and random injuries. Drafted 20th overall in 2013 by the Detroit Red Wings, experts viewed this as a first-round steal.
I’ve said it before, and I’m sure you’ve read it on other fantasy hockey sites; big hockey players take more time to hit their breakout threshold than average-size players. At 6’5″, Mantha is of exceptional size. At 452 career games, Mantha has only recently surpassed his breakout threshold.
The trade from Detroit to the Washington Capitals hasn’t done him any favors. The first power-play unit has been on lockdown for a decade. And his inconsistent play has led to diminished ice time.
Knock on wood, Mantha has remained relatively healthy this season. He did miss six games in November. After a cold start, with four points in his first 14 games, Mantha has been heating up with 14 points in his last 18 games. He’s also improved from 1.57 shots on goal, per game, to two per game.
This season, he’s trending in the right direction. His current .56 points per game projects Mantha to score 43 points. His second-quarter production puts him on pace for 52 points. Neither point total is earth-shattering. Shockingly, it would be Mantha’s first career 50-point season.
Expectations this year should remain in the 50-point range. Mantha has played almost 70% of his five-on-five minutes with one or both of Aliaxei Protras and Connor McMichael. Averaging 13:39 in ice time a game, and 1:29 on the power-play, he’s entrenched in the third line, second power-play role. He averaged 12:51 a game over the first 14 games. In the last five games, Mantha has played over 15 minutes, four times.
We’ve all been burned by Mantha. We won’t get warm and fuzzy over him averaging .78 points for a quarter of the season. It has always ended in disappointment.
Playing 2023-24 on an expiring deal, Mantha becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year. If Washington finds themselves on the wrong side of the playoff race in March, Mantha will become trade bait. This isn’t the type of player I would expect to see a significant change in fantasy value if traded. He is already playing a third-line, second-power play role.
The key with Mantha is for him to miss minimal games the rest of the year and enter 2024-25 healthy. He will sign with a team that offers more power play exposure and a legitimate top-six opportunity. In the right spot and remaining injury-free, Mantha could re-enter fantasy relevance next year. Perhaps even eclipse 60 points.
He would be a cheap, or free, low-risk, medium-reward acquisition for any team looking to next year. There might be a mini-monster hiding in there still.
Fantasy Analysis of Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, Ottawa Senators
From 2014-15 to 2018-19, Tarasenko was the model of consistency. His point total ranged from 66 to 75, and he scored 33 or more goals every season.
The St. Louis Blues won the Stanley Cup in 2019 and Tarasenko underwent his first shoulder surgery later that year. between 2019-20 and 2020-21, Tarasenko played 34 games. Sure, COVID-19 shortened both seasons, but 34 games is still 34 games.
Upon returning from shoulder surgery, Tarasenko re-injured the same shoulder and underwent a second procedure. It appeared 2021-22, all was well as Tarasenko scored 34 goals and set a career-high in points with 82, but it wasn’t.
In the two years since he has put up back-to-back 50-point seasons. While his 24 points in 32 games feels underwhelming, it does put him on pace for 59 points. It isn’t the totals we’re used to, but it is a step in the right direction.
So what’s going on?
The last season and a half in St. Louis were tumultuous. Remember, he was left unprotected in the Seattle Kraken expansion draft. Following that, trade rumors swirled and swirled, until finally he was dealt to the New York Rangers.
Part of the explanation this year has been his early deployment. Tarasenko is seeing his lowest ice time percentage of time on the power play, and shots per game, in 10 years.
There has been a moderate uptick in ice time over the last 15 games, about one extra shift per game. At least the shot totals have been improving. Averaging 2.4 per game over the same span.
His five-on-five shooting percentage is higher than all but one of his 30-goal seasons. His points per 60 minutes, (2.8) are in line with career averages. Yet, his shots on goal per sixty minutes is the lowest of his career (7.6). His shots on goal per 60 have been brought down by a poor first quarter, where he averaged 1.65 shots in the first 17 games.
What this tells us is, if given a larger role, especially on the power play, Tarasenko could be flirting with career averages. His 38.1% power play share is 20-23% lower than his share in St. Louis.
At 32, Tarasenko is far from done. He needs a team that will give him the opportunity he previously enjoyed in St. Louis. Ottawa sits last in the Atlantic Division. Tarasenko is on a one-year deal. we can expect him to become the focus of trade speculation over the next three months.
I would put Tarasenko in the ‘buy-now/buy-low’ category. If he lands in the right spot – a team in need of a boost on the first power play – he could offer a stretch boost to your fantasy roster. There’s a couple more 70-point seasons to come.
That will do it for this week. Thanks for reading.
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