Hey folks, welcome back to Slappers and Bangers, where we look at fantasy hockey through a multi-cat lens; specifically for limited keeper and dynasty leagues. This week we will do a fantasy analysis of Jonathan Drouin and Trent Frederic.
Let’s take a look.
Fantasy Analysis of Jonathan Drouin – C/LW – Colorado Avalanche
Drouin came into the league with a lot of hype. He was drafted third overall in 2013 by the Tampa Bay Lightning, two picks after his Halifax Mooseheads teammate, Nathan MacKinnon.
Things didn’t go smoothly. In 2016, Drouin requested a trade from Tampa Bay. He was eventually traded to the Montreal Canadiens for Mikhail Sergachev.
Things still never took off for Drouin. He produced two 53-point seasons for Montreal and looked like a solid middle-six winger, the second was in 2018-19. Since then, Drouin has not played a full season due to injuries and personal reasons. His 58 games last year were the most since 2018-19.
Enter 2023-24, Drouin signed with the Colorado Avalanche on a one-year $825 000 deal as an unrestricted free agent. Both the Avalanche and Drouin hoped he could resurrect his career. Along with the hope Drouin and MacKinnon could rekindle that 2012-13 Moosehead magic.
Well, it didn’t start well. With one point in eight games in October, the Drouin experiment didn’t look great. November wasn’t much better with five points in 12 games. Averaging 13:34 a game to that point, Drouin was on pace for just 25 points.
Then the real experiment began. Jared Bednar put Drouin on the top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. At that point, there was nothing to lose… but oh so much to gain.
Since then Drouin has been improving every game.
In December, Drouin averaged 17:36 in ice time and produced 10 points in 15 games, a significant improvement.
Drouin showed enough that Bednar has doubled down in January. In five January games, Drouin is averaging 23:33 in ice time. He also has six points. Since being lifted in the lineup, Drouin has been producing at a 66-point pace (.80 points per game). He’s also averaging 3:36 on the power play. Mind you, that’s for the season. Since December 1, he is averaging 4:16 per game. That’s over 60% power play share.
It has taken a while, but Drouin is now stapled to Nathan MacKinnon’s wing. Artturi Lehkonen is expected back very soon. Last year he spent a lot of time with MacKinnon and Rantanen.
Before December 1, Valeri Nichushkin was spending most of his five-on-five ice time on that line. I don’t foresee Bednar moving Drouin off of this top line. How can he? It has brought Drouin to life. With Lehkonen’s imminent return, it gives the Avalanche a much deeper and more dangerous lineup.
Drouin’s percentage of expected goals at five-on-five (xG% 5v5) for the season is 54.6%. In the last six games – where Drouin has averaged 23:33 ice time, his xG% 5v5 is 70.6%. The increased ice time has made his play with MacKinnon and Rantanen even more dominant. Small sample, but great things within that sample
Based on his second-quarter turnaround, Drouin is like a mid-season acquisition to the top six.
I know it’s hard to have faith in owning Drouin. There is a decade of disappointment to bypass. Still, throughout everything in his career, he’s averaged .58 points per game.
As we are seeing playing with MacKinnon can do wonders. Drouin is now rostered in 56% of leagues, so your opportunity to claim him is disappearing.
As long as he remains in the top six, averaging over 19 minutes a game, Drouin should continue his 60-plus point pace. Add in that he is on the Avalanche’s top power-play unit and you’re looking at found money.
Forget the name and claim the player with 16 points in his last 20 games including six on the power play. Drouin has turned into a must-own, at least for now.
Fantasy Analysis of Trent Frederic – C/LW, Boston Bruins
The former first-round draft pick (2016, 29th overall) is in his fourth NHL season and third full NHL season.
In his first three years in the league, since 2020-21, Frederic has been stapled to the fourth line, averaging 11:40 a game.
Now in year four, Frederic is slowly been moving up the line-up. The loss of Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Taylor Hall provided a window of opportunity for several players to move up. In October, Frederic saw a career-high in average ice time, averaging 13:20 per game. In December it improved to 13:57 per game. In January, Frederic has averaged 15:14 in five games, so far.
The increase of two minutes per game, all at five-on-five, is the equivalent of moving from the third line to the second line. There’s been a lot of line-shuffling happening in Boston as they search for the right mix. So while his ice time has increased, there isn’t a defined second line in Boston right now. Outside of David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand, the other four or five wingers, Frederic included, are in a bit of a blender.
Frederic entered the year with 198 games played, at his breakout threshold. At 6’3″, and 220 pounds, Frederic’s true breakout might be another two and a half years away. Still, based on the breakout requirement of improving his career high by 25%, Frederic is experiencing a small one, this year.
His 21 points in 40 games is his first season averaging over half a point pre-game. He has improved his point-per-game pace every year since entering the league, 2020-21 – .12, 2021-22 – .30, 2022-23 – .42, to this year, .53 (43-point pace).
He’s not on a game-breaking pace, but the linear improvements, marginal as they are, are what you want from a young player.
His current value lies in multi-cat pools. Frederic is viewed as a guy who will provide decent hit totals, add in a decent amount of penalty minutes, and chip in offensively.
My primary Frederic flag goes to his lack of shot production. At 1.4 per game, it’s not a number I want to see from any forward on my roster. His career high is 1.7 per game. Normally, I try to avoid less than 2.5 per game for forwards. When a forward brings 150 or more hits per season, I’ll lower that expectation to two per game. Nine shots in his last five games aren’t enough to get me excited about a sustainable increase.
So what should we expect from Frederic moving forward?
This season, I’d like to see an improvement in his shots per game. He won’t average two per game for the season, but if he can average two per game over the next 42 games, I’ll take that as a win. An increase in shots should also bump his point and goal projections ever so slightly. I’d like to see him improve on his 43-point pace.
I’d also like to see Frederic find a role on the power play. His 0:11 per game means he’s coming over the boards because the power play is ending, not because he’s a part of either unit. You have to think his 6’3″, 220-pound frame would be a beneficial net-front presence at some point.
From this fantasy analysis, Frederic has what I call, emerging value. He’s not there yet, but he is trending in the right direction. He’s slowly inching toward breaking 50-points. In two to three years he could be breaking 60, to go along with his 150-plus hits and 60 PIM.
That will do it for this week. Thanks for reading
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