When assessing the future stats of a player, it’s imperative to consider player health and injury risk when speculating on playing time. After all, getting onto the field and being given a chance to succeed only happens if the player is healthy enough. That’s why looking at a player’s track record of health gives credence to whether someone is worth drafting. A fantasy team could have all the talent in the world, but if they’re on your Injured List or bench, they lose a ton of value.
We are moving toward draft season, and all eyes will be on the top players at each position. Knowing of any inherent risk to drafting someone can help teams in the long run. That’s why today will be a part of positional examinations of injury risk. I will be going through the Injury History of the top players at every position and making notes of their healthy or troubled pasts. Seeing trends in their health could help determine any future problems.
The players listed below will be separated into one of three categories: red light, yellow light, green light. The timeframe that will be examined will primarily be from 2021 to 2023, though looking into the distant past might also take place.
Red Light: any players listed here have an extensive and/or concerning injury history that seems likely to come into play in the future. The potential for injury outweighs their production on the field and their selection could lead to roster problems down the line. The reoccurrence of a particular injury or multiple injuries also creates the need for a red light. Fantasy owners should be wary of drafting these players because the risk for injury is high.
Yellow Light: any players listed here have had their injury problems before, but they’re not necessarily prone to injury. These players here have situations to monitor, especially during the off-season and Spring Training, but it’s not necessarily as bleak as it could be. The types of injuries could also be freakish or due to bad luck with events leading to it being out of the ordinary. Fantasy owners should be aware of the injury history, but know the possibility for health is there too.
Green Light: any players listed here have had minimal problems and their future doesn’t appear to be in any jeopardy. There is nothing from their past that would indicate an injury-prone future. While injuries could happen at any time, there are no red flags in this player’s history to suggest it will lead to another one. Fantasy owners can feel safe in drafting these players.
Things to remember:
- The players listed are in the general order of how they’re being drafted.
- The level of confidence has to do with their health and nothing to do with their abilities on the field.
Injury Risk for Starting Pitchers (Part Deux)
Also, check out Injury Risk for Starting Pitchers Part 1.
26. Joe Ryan – Minnesota Twins
Ryan has thrown for three seasons with the Twins and has accumulated just over 335 total innings. His games started have increased every season, even though he has missed time on the Injuured List every year. The good news is that none of those injuries seem to have long-lasting ramifications attached to them. He was hit by a comebacker in 2021, he suffered from COVID-19 in 2022 and he had a minor groin ailment in 2023. There is also a possibility that he was either tipping pitches or playing through the aforementioned groin injury to help him get out of his home run funk as his HR/9 plummeted upon his return (minus his final game at Colorado). Draft with confidence.
27. Kyle Bradish – Baltimore Orioles
Bradish broke out in 2023, as he was able to start 30 games for the Orioles and throw 168.2 innings. His only blemish this past season came after being hit by a pitch early in the season. Otherwise, he was a consistent starter for Baltimore. This was encouraging after he suffered some shoulder inflammation in 2022. Overall, he is someone to count on going forward. Draft with confidence.
28. Justin Steele – Chicago Cubs
Steele had a minor injury scare back in June, as he went to the Injured List with forearm tightness. He only missed minimal time and came back, only to see his K% trend upward throughout the remainder of the regular season. He has been injured twice before this season, both with somewhat concerning types of ailments. In 2022 he missed just over one month with a strained lower back, and in 2021 he missed just under three weeks with a strained right hamstring. Both of those types of injuries, along with this year’s forearm ailment, could have serious repercussions on a pitcher. That being said, his performance constantly improves, so he’s been able to dodge anything too serious. Fingers crossed that trend continues. Draft with confidence.
29. Walker Buehler – Los Angeles Dodgers
Buehler missed the entire 2023 season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery in August of 2022. He appeared close to returning late last season but plans ultimately fell through. He threw two rehab innings in September, but both he and the team felt that anything more would be pushing an agenda to return too quickly. At the end of the day, after speaking with his doctors, they decided to wait until 2024. As we approach this upcoming season, there have been rumors of him being on either an innings cap or having his start delayed to begin the year. The end goal is to have him healthy for October, so the team will do whatever they have to do to ensure he’s ready. Furthermore, the Dodgers have been actively discussing the idea of a six-man rotation, of which Buehler would be a part. Whatever or not that comes to fruition remains to be seen. At the end of the day, it may cost him (and others) some innings, but it could keep him healthier too. One other tidbit here: Buehler has yet to play in the Major Leagues with the new rules. It will be interesting to see how he not only recovers but adapts to those. He was exposed to them when he was in the Minor Leagues, but that was many moons ago. Draft with caution.
30. Cole Ragans – Kansas City Royals
Ragans had a phenomenal 2023 season after some offseason changes to his repertoire. He came to the Royals and was a completely different pitcher. Additionally, he remained healthy all year, which contributed to his 96.0 inning output. One thing of note is that his workload has never eclipsed 100 innings in a season. His 2022 and 2023 innings workload look quite similar with only a two-inning jump from the season prior. While a potential big jump in innings isn’t enough to project him as an injury risk, it is something to watch to see if the Royals themselves become conscious of an innings cap. Draft with confidence.
31. Joe Musgrove – San Diego Padres
Musgrove had an injury-riddled season in 2023. He started the year by fracturing his toe while working out during Spring Training. This was a devastating blow to him and the team who was getting ready to start the season. He worked hard to get back and did so at a much faster pace than was anticipated. During that rehab, a shoulder issue popped up, which did so again at the end of the season. He was shut down in September simply because the team was out of contention and they didn’t want to risk anything more. In between these bookend injuries was an issue with bursitis in his elbow, which caused him to miss a short time. All of this sounds like a player who should be ignored in drafts because of injury risk, but Musgrove is quite the opposite. Before this season from hell, he pitched back-to-back 181+ inning seasons without an Injury List designation. He might be a nice buy-low candidate, given his recent history doesn’t tell the whole story. Draft with confidence.
32. Dylan Cease – Chicago White Sox
Cease has made 97 starts for the White Sox since the beginning of the 2021 season. He had some minor injuries in 2021, but his overall track record for health is quite clean. His performance last year will push people to let others draft him, but at the very least, he is not an injury concern. Draft with confidence.
33. Tanner Bibee – Cleveland Guardians
Bibee made his debut with the Guardians this past season and excelled. He finished the year with 157.1 total innings pitched which were approximately ten more than he threw the previous year in the Minor Leagues. He ended the 2023 season on a sour note with hip inflammation, but his early exit was due in part to a procedural move. He is fully expected to be ready for Spring Training. Draft with confidence.
34. Sonny Gray – St. Louis Cardinals
Gray had a successful and healthy season in 2023. He threw for 184.0 innings in Minnesota, which is his highest total since his earliest days with Oakland. His track record for health has not been high, as he has been on the Injured List ten times over his eleven-year career. While he has only needed surgery once, he has missed 213 days due to ailments all over his body. He is by no means a sure thing to maintain 2023’s health kick. Draft with attention.
35. Justin Verlander – Houston Astros
Verlander has been a Major League pitcher for eighteen seasons and has thrown well over 3300 innings. In that time, he has been placed on the Injured List just five times. While that is an impressive feat, three of those designations have taken place since the 2020 season. The injuries that he has sustained have also been of the concerning type. He underwent Tommy John Surgery, which cost him the entire 2021 season. He also had a calf injury and a right teres major ailment, which the latter cost him six weeks of a season. He will be 41 years old when the season begins, and it’s only a matter of time before his body starts to give up on him. He still had a successful season concerning his stats, but Father Time always wins. Draft with attention.
36. Chris Bassitt – Toronto Blue Jays
Bassitt has done a fantastic job of staying healthy after some early-career troubles. His biggest injury as of late was when he got hit in the head by a comebacker, causing multiple facial injuries. Since that miraculous recovery, he has only missed time because of COVID-19. He ranked 9th among all pitchers with 381.2 innings pitched over the past two seasons. Draft with confidence.
37. Hunter Greene – Cincinnati Reds
Greene is a hard thrower, and as a result, his body is somewhat susceptible to injury. His 2023 season was marred with injuries, as he missed significant time due to a hip injury. As a result, he was never really able to get himself going and build upon the success he had in 2022. Still, despite only throwing 112.0 innings, he finished 45th in strikeouts thrown with 152, which is an impressive feat. Draft with attention.
38. Jordan Montgomery – Texas Rangers
Montgomery has done well to stay on the field since undergoing Tommy John Surgery. His total innings pitched have gone up every season since then, as he ranked 17th among all qualified starters since 2021. Draft with confidence.
39. Micahel King – San Diego Padres
King heads to San Diego and looks to build on last season’s success. His 104.2 innings pitched are his highest since his 2018 season when he threw 161.1 innings over three Minor League levels. The problem came in 2022 when he required surgery to fix his UCL. The good news was that the ligament was intact and that Tommy John Surgery was not required. He was able to return in 2023, albeit as a reliever, and succeed. He later was moved into the role of a starter and had a mini-breakout to end the season. That being said, the Yankees were very cautious with their workload. He only threw more than 80 pitches three times last year and tossed more than 4.2 innings four times. It’s unclear if his new team will do the same, but they must have liked him enough to take a chance. He comes with questions about not only staying healthy but also pitching enough to make his ADP worthwhile. Draft with caution.
40. Merrill Kelly – Arizona Diamondbacks
Kelly had some injury concerns earlier in his career but has done well to stay healthy since. He threw 200+ innings in both 2022 and 2023 (including the postseason), and looks like a workhorse. He’s evolved as a pitcher and will be a main part of Arizona’s rotation going forward. Draft with confidence.
41. Gavin Williams – Cleveland Guardians
Williams made his debut with the Guardians this past season. Other than a blister and some knee soreness, he was very healthy all season. Draft with confidence.
42. Bailey Ober – Minnesota Twins
Ober had some Minor League health concerns but has bounced back in a big way as a member of the Twins. As a tall and heavy pitcher, his body takes a toll with every pitch thrown. His 2022 season was delayed because of a groin injury that wouldn’t go away. Last season, despite some workload questions, Ober was able to be one of the team’s best pitchers. His 144.2 innings thrown are by far the most he’s ever thrown in a season as a professional player. He held up nicely, giving him hope to do so again next year and even build upon that too. Draft with confidence.
43. Mitch Keller – Pittsburgh Pirates
Keller had an up-and-down season last year, but none of that was health-related. He threw a career-high 194.0 innings and started 32 games for the Pirates. He remains one of their key pieces going forward. Draft with confidence.
44. José Berríos – Toronto Blue Jays
Berríos has been as consistent as they come concerning pitching and health. Since the 2018 season, he ranked third in innings pitched with 1009.1 in total. He has yet to go on the Injured List in his career, which is an incredible feat. Draft with confidence.
45. Carlos Rodón – New York Yankees
Rodón has had a troubled past with a ton of injuries. Over his career, he has been on the 60-day Injured List five different times. What’s worse is that of those five times, four of them have been for different body parts. It becomes frustrating because he is elite when he is healthy, which leads one to believe that his 2023 was one where he was never quite right. He could be back to his old, tremendous self in 2024, but the injury risk is incredibly dangerous. He is expected to be ready for Spring Training, but he is one to monitor in the Spring. Keep in mind, over his nine seasons in the Major Leagues, he has missed 531 days due to injury and thrown just 911.2 innings. Draft with caution.
46. Cristian Javier – Houston Astros
Javier has been a part of the Astros for four seasons. In that time, he has seen his workload increase every year, all the way to the 162.0 innings he tossed in 2023. He has had no injury concerns. Draft with confidence.
47. Chris Sale – Atlanta Braves
Sale has had numerous injury concerns over the past few years that have labeled him as somewhat of an injury-prone player. After posting three consecutive seasons of at least 208.2 innings thrown, he has seen his workload diminish drastically in the five years since. He’s missed time due to elbow inflammation, shoulder inflammation, Tommy John Surgery, a stress fracture in his rib cage, a fractured pinkie finger, and a fractured wrist. The good news is that he is on a new team that is not only smart but savvy. The Braves didn’t just trade away one of their best prospects, but they also signed Sale to an extension, exhibiting some belief that he can turn things around for them. That remains to be seen. Draft with caution.
48. Shane Bieber – Cleveland Guardians
Bieber has been relatively healthy over his career, but recent ailments have clouded his stock. He was shut down indefinitely last season due to a strained right forearm which turned out to be irritation. He came back to finish the season on the mound with two appearances in September. It was the second of those outings that was a) more successful and b) where the pitch velocity and spin rate increased. While this is too short of a sample from which to generate anything substantial, it was more or less a chance to reassure himself and the team that he was okay moving into the offseason. The team was swirled in rumors regarding him possibly being traded, but it is believed that it was financially driven speculation and not health-related. For now, he seems somewhat safe, health-wise, as he attempts to get himself back to his glory days of being one of baseball’s best pitchers. Draft with attention.
49. Bryan Woo – Seattle Mariners
Woo had a successful debut season in 2023, despite the news that he was on an innings limit. He went to the Injured List in August with right forearm inflammation, though there was some belief that this was done to keep his inning count down. Either way, he is likely to be at the back end of the Mariners’ rotation to begin the season. Draft with confidence.
50. Bryce Miller – Seattle Mariners
Miller was another pitcher who debuted with the Mariners in 2023 and found success. His only injury came with a blister that was developed on his right hand. These are common with pitchers and are not concerning for long-term ramifications. They are an unfortunate part of the game. As such, Miller is working on a new pitch this offseason. Draft with confidence.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.