Predicting Early Round Busts in 2024 Drafts

Nothing creates more excitement for fantasy baseball managers than securing top superstar players in the early rounds of a draft. Yet, with early-round picks come high expectations for them to carry a team to a fantasy title. Unfortunately, that doesn’t always happen and, in some instances, taking one of these early-round busts can sink a team’s season. In fact, the bust rate for early-round players has been increasing the last several years in fantasy baseball. Consider the following from last year’s drafts:

• Only 17 of the top 36 players drafted last year, according to Fantrax ADP, finished the season in the top 50 overall rated players,.
• Twelve of those top 36 drafted players finished the season rated lower than a top 100 overall player, with several drastically lower.
• Only nine of the top 36 finished the season rated at their draft spot or better.

For many of those draft busts the cause was largely due to injuries, which can be hard to predict, though that list of players impacted included the usual injury-prone suspects like Mike Trout, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, and Aaron Judge. The early round busts from last year that just performed poorly, like Burnes, Cease, Goldschmidt, and Guerrero, were all coming off seasons that showed unsustainable success in key underlying metrics. The signs of an underwhelming season were there for all 12 of these early round busts, they just weren’t given the attention they needed. In this article, we’ll help prevent similar missteps for drafters in this new season by predicting 2024 fantasy baseball busts.

Potential Early Round Busts in 2024 Fantasy Baseball Drafts

1st Round Bust Candidates

Fernando Tatis, Padres

2023 stat line: 91/25/78/29/.257 in 575 ABs

Coming off multiple surgeries and a suspension prior to last year, it was encouraging to finally see Tatis partake in a near-full season of games. On the surface, his numbers looked like you might expect from a superstar talent after a year off, with above-average contributions in multiple categories.

2024 Bust Potential: Tatis fell into a series of extended hitting slumps that covered most of the second half of the season, resulting in a second-half-of-season batting average of .225 and career-low slugging percentage of .368. The Slugging percentage during that 71-game stretch was more than .150 points lower than his first-half numbers in 2023 and .250 points lower than his 2021 season!

While bad luck has a part in that outcome, with a slight regression in BABIP, it was revealed by Tatis in a late-season interview that he was persistently battling shoulder soreness. Perhaps the offseason will provide the needed time to fully recover, but the warning signs of ongoing regression from 2021 stats grew increasingly apparent throughout the 2023 season.

Recommendation: Tatis will go in the first round, so for those willing to take the upside risk it’s best to pair him with safer second and third-round picks. He could end up the top overall player at the end of 2024, if all goes right, or he could falter and remain a shell of his former self as demonstrated in the second half.

Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks

2023 stat line: 91/25/78/29/.257 in 565 ABs

Carroll far exceeded even his biggest believers’ expectations in his rookie season last year. Coming into 2024 he looks to be a safe bet as a multi-category contributor and is being drafted in the top five picks. Yet, much like the previously discussed Tatis, it became apparent in the second half of the season that shoulder issues were limiting his performance as well.

2024 Bust Potential: After Carroll’s shoulder injury scare in early July, in which he even thought his season was over, he magically bounced back to maintain his hot-hitting ways. Yet, his contributions took a different form with far less power output. In the second half of the season, he only hit seven HRs with just four coming from August 1 and on. As a result, his RBI total dwindled by 20 less total in the second half than in the first half and his slugging percentage dipped by nearly .200 points between June and August.

Recommendation: It seems a safe bet for Carroll to finish the season in the top 36 overall players, so the bust concern relates to his ability to deliver on top five overall pick value. If the reduced power remains from lingering shoulder issues or as a result of his preventative swing modifications to protect his shoulder, Carroll’s season stat line could be closer to CJ Abrams than Ronald Acuna. Thus, it’s best to complement Carroll with an early round power hitter.

2nd Round Bust Candidates

Elly De La Cruz, Reds

2023 stat line: 67/13/44/35/.235 in 388 ABs

It seems every year there’s a promising young player who cracks the early rounds of a draft based largely on potential instead of merit. This year Elly De La Cruz is that player, which has stirred much debate within the fantasy community.

2024 Bust Potential: While the speed is on par with early-round steals source players, it’s far less certain if his hit tool is at the same caliber. No one questions the power, but it was evident that there were still massive holes in his swing. After starting hot in June with a .307 batting average in his first 88 at-bats, the number plummeted quickly until it cratered to .198 in August. A driving force of this subpar batting average was his struggles against left-handed pitching, where he finished the season batting .184 with just a .079 ISO in those matchups.

Recommendation: Look at the data it’s hard for anyone to justify taking Elly De La Cruz in the second round, given the glaring holes in his swing, but hope sells. If the aim is championship or bust this season, then it may take an irrational move to get there and only a few players have the true 40/40 potential that De La Cruz possesses. For more practical fantasy managers, it’s best to pass at the current price.

Pete Alonso, Mets

2023 stat line: 92/46/118/4/.217 in 568 ABs

It may seem odd to include someone as historically steady as Alonso as a bust candidate, especially after a 46-HR and 118-RBI season. Though, even with those impressive power numbers, Alonso still finished only 94th overall in fantasy value last year. This finish was 70 spots lower than his average draft position and also with his early-round draft position already this year.

2024 Bust Potential: While Alonso’s HR totals have ticked up each of the last few seasons, his batting average dropped significantly last year. Given the absence of steals, Alonso’s 2023 season fit the mold of Kyle Schwarber and Max Muncy, who are both going far later in drafts. Unlike the previously mentioned hitters who encountered second-half slumps, Alonso struggled to hit consistently the entire season.

Recommendation: Alonso poses much less of a drastic bust risk than several of the other candidates mentioned, but it’s still important to consider the downside of chasing his power without other category support. Alonso should be taken in the top 50, but probably not in the top 25 where he is going in early drafts already.

3rd Round Bust Candidates:

Corbin Burnes, Brewers

2023 stat line: 200/3.39/1.07 in 193.2 IP

Burnes reminded us of the heightened risk in taking a pitcher in the first round last season. Burnes wasn’t terrible, but lost his elite ace stuff compared to previous years. While he ended with a respectable 3.39 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, he seemed to fight through his starts, inning by inning, all season long.

2024 Bust Potential: The edge that Burnes lost in 2023 resulted from his reduced strikeout rate. From 2022 to 2023, Burnes’ K/9 rate dropped from 10.83 to 9.29. At the same time, his walk rate ticked up from 2.27 in 2022 to 3.07 in 2023. More baserunners due to walks and balls in play due to decreased strikeouts put Burnes in jeopardy of blowups in many of his starts.

Recommendation: Drafting Burnes in the early rounds this year is purely out of hope for a return to his dominant form as a strikeout pitcher. It’s best to monitor his spring training performances to see how his stuff and velocity grades out before overpaying for 2022 results.

CJ Abrams

2023 stat line: 83/18/64/47/.246 in 563 ABs

Abrams is likely the least surprising player on this list of early round busts. In fact, his ADP has already been sliding to the fringe of the third round in recent drafts. It’s not that he doesn’t possess the skills to be an early-round player, like Elly De La Cruz. It’s that those skills are not yet fully developed enough to deliver consistent results.

2024 Bust Potential: After being rushed to the majors with less than 500 minor league at-bats, Abrams showed his raw skillset throughout much of last year. What has propelled his draft value this year was his breakout performance in July, where he surged to a .327 average for the month with 16 steals. While the steals pace stayed steady for the rest of the season, the batting average quickly crashed back to previous month’s dismal numbers in August and forward.

Recommendation: It’s best to find steal elsewhere either with proven bats in the first two rounds or in later rounds with high volume steals sources that have similar inconsistent hit tools such as Andres Gimenez or Tommy Edman demonstrated. Abrams is likely still a year or two away from delivering on the early round draft value owners anticipate.

For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.