This week on Slappers and Bangers we’re looking at another two players through the multi-cat lens. While I was scrolling through some advanced stats leaders, two names stuck out as different from the names surrounding them.
We are going to look under the hood of Daniel Sprong and Matt Duchene. If you own either in a salary-cap league, both provide immense contract value.
Fantasy Analysis of Daniel Sprong, RW, Detroit Red Wings
It might have taken Sprong six years to find his footing in the NHL, but he’s finally making an impact. After spending two seasons post-draft in the QMJHL, and another four between the AHL and NHL with three teams.
It wasn’t until last year, 2022-23, with the Seattle Kraken that Sprong sprung onto the radar of fantasy hockey owners.
Sprong broke out with 46 points (21 goals and 25 assists) in 66 games. That’s an 82-game pace of 57 points. Considering his previous career high was 23, this was a significant breakout.
Still, the Kraken let him walk and Detroit signed him on a one-year two-million-dollar deal. The hesitation to commit more money and more time was obvious. Was last year for real or an aberration?
Well, with 34 points in 52 games and his pace for 54 points this season, the answer is clear, ‘for real.’
I mentioned in the intro when scrolling through league leaders, Sprong’s name jumped out. He currently sits 32nd in the NHL with 3.082 points per 60 minutes (P/60). Maybe 32nd doesn’t sound that impressive at first, but when you look at the names from 33rd to 37th, Sidney Crosby, Jack Eichel, Quinton Byfield, Patrick Kane, and Steven Stamkos, Sprong is holding court with NHL royalty. Kirill Kaprizov is 31st at 3.088.
He has managed to produce at a 54-point pace despite averaging only 12:53 ice time per game.
At right wing, Sprong is buried behind Patrick Kane and Lucas Raymond. Opportunities to increase ice time this year are all but non-existent.
He’s averaging 2.5 shots per game, which is just over 200 for the season, but his shots on goal per 60 (SOG/60), rank 11th in the NHL at 11.7/60.
Sprong has produced close to elite SOG/60 rates (2022-23, also 11.7%) and double-digit five-on-five shooting percentage (2022-23, 12.4%, and 2023-24 11.4%), in back-to-back seasons.
He’s not going to stuff your hits category. He only had 33 last year and has 22 so far this year. Yet given more ice time we could easily see his Shots on goal per game improve to 3 or more per game.
Sprong goes into the summer as an unrestricted free agent. Expect him to target a team that can provide him with an opportunity to play top-six minutes and a chance to push for a spot on the top power-play unit.
If you’re looking toward next year, perhaps Sprong is a piece to acquire in the hopes he lands in a favorable spot and gains meaningful minutes.
Fantasy Analysis of Matt Duchene, C, Dallas Stars
Most earmarked Duchene’s signing in Dallas as a great landing spot for him. He hasn’t disappointed. In fact, he’s been better than anyone could have expected.
Through 53 games (including Thursday’s game), Duchene has 54 points, 21 goals, and 33 assists.
He has spent a good portion of the year as the Stars third line center and on the second power-play unit, which makes his production is even more impressive.
Even though Duchen was bought out by the Nashville Predators It’s not as if he played poorly. At least not the two seasons before he was bought out. In 2021-22, he put up 86 points in 76 games, 1.1 points per game. Last year, he produced a respectable .79 points per game, producing 56 in 71 games.
Barry Trotz, the Predators’ new general manager just wanted a fresh slate to work from.
Like Sprong, when looking at the league leaders in P/60, Duchene stuck out. Right now, his 3.402 P/60 is 15th in the NHL. The two players directly above him are, Matt Tkachuk and Sebastian Aho. The two players directly below him are, Jesper Bratt and Andrei Svechnikov. Not too shabby.
Also like Sprong, Duchene is going to leave your hits and penalty minute columns barron. He’s also not a huge volume shooting, averaging 2.1 per game, which is just below his career average of 2.4.
Duchene needs to put up points or he’s not going to help your team much. The only exception is in the few leagues that count face-offs or face-off percentages as categories. Duchene has been a solid producer every year. This year he’s cruising along at a cool 56% clip.
Duchene will command a large salary increase next year, which will cut his value in cap leagues. He’s a hard one to peg down because he has, in the past, had a history of throwing in a bad year after a strong year (2016-17, 2019-21).
I wouldn’t bank on him repeating his point-per-game pace, even if he re-signs in Dallas. Although, the odds of him doing so increase, due to familiarity. I would look at his career point-per-game average, .77, and base my decision on that.
Buy-outs hold weight. Even though he’s producing at a point-per-game, odds are the team that owns him in your fantasy hockey league doesn’t view him in the same light as players producing at a similar pace. For a team making a Championship run and looking for an offensive boost, Duchene is an obvious target. The cost to acquire will be less than Braydon Point, Jason Robertson, Nick Suzuki, or Brad Marchand.
He’s a great deadline add for this year. I just wouldn’t buy expecting repeat production in 2024-25.
That’ll do it for this week. Thanks for reading.
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