NASCAR DFS: Ambetter Health 400 Picks

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Atlanta on Sunday for the Ambetter Health 400. We rarely get two “drafting” races back-to-back. And you’ll hear plenty of complaints about Atlanta Motor Speedway’s new configuration. I was at the Xfinity Series race on Saturday. It was horrendous. But William Byron is coming off a massive Daytona 500 win last week. And now we come to a track where he’s won twice in the last two years. Atlanta has become a perfect mix of superspeedway drafting, while still having some “dominator” potential worth targeting. We don’t always stack the back. And we can take some chances rostering drivers starting in the top 10. The strategy does differ a little from last week. So let’s take a look at the top Ambetter Health 400 picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Ambetter Health 400 Picks: The Top 10

1. Michael McDowell (#34 Front Row Motorsports)
2. Joey Logano (#22 Team Penske)
3. Kyle Busch (#8 Richard Childress Racing)
4. Todd Gilliland (#38 Front Row Motorsports)
5. Kyle Larson (#5 Hendrick Motorsports)
6. Ryan Blaney (#12 Team Penske)
7. Chris Buescher (#17 RFK Racing)
8. Austin Cindric (#2 Team Penske)
9. Chase Briscoe (#14 Stewart-Haas Racing)
10. Austin Dillon (#3 Richard Childress Racing)

It sure looks like the Penske/Front Row affiliation is paying off. All five cars from those two teams are starting in the first four rows. And sure, this is a unique track that does cater to the Fords. We will see drafting in this race. Hopefully, we’re spared from a single file run. But if that’s the case, having a Ford out run wouldn’t be surprising. Zero Toyotas in the top 10 is, however, a little surprising. Nevertheless, we did see those cars draft well last week. We’ll want at least one of these drivers in our lineups. We’ve seen Logano dominate a race here from the pole. Mix in a share or two of Michael McDowell. Jesse Love led a ton of laps from the pole in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race before running out of fuel in stage three. Don’t miss out on McDowell possibly collecting some laps led.

Which Value-Priced Ambetter Health 400 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?

DraftKings

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – $7,500; Starting P27
• Daniel Suarez – $7,300; Starting P23
• Corey LaJoie – $6,800; Starting P32
• John Hunter Nemechek – $6,200; Starting P34
• Carson Hocevar – $5,900; Starting P35
• Zane Smith – $5,700; Starting P29
• Daniel Hemric – $5,500; Starting P26

FanDuel

• Erik Jones – $7,200; Starting P37
• Daniel Suarez – $7,000; Starting P23
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – $6,200; Starting P27
• Corey LaJoie – $5,800; Starting P32
• John Hunter Nemechek – $4,800; Starting P34
• Carson Hocevar – $4,200; Starting P35
• Zane Smith – $3,000; Starting P29

We have some interesting value plays on this slate. Of note, Erik Jones stands out the most. He’s a great drafter and he appeared in the Ambetter Health 400 Preview. He’s finished 14^th or better in all four races at “new” Atlanta. Jones in a great spot to move up and gain points on Sunday. He’ll even be able to work with teammate, John Hunter Nemechek, who had a rather forgetful performance in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race. Corey LaJoie is poised to garner ownership as he tends to on this type of track. It may not be a terrible idea to take a stand and maybe pivot off LaJoie for some leverage in this range. But I’m quite intrigued by Daniel Hemric and Zane Smith in Tournaments for Sunday’s race.

Which Higher-Priced Drivers Got A Similar Bump?

• Chase Elliott – Starting P28
• Brad Keselowski – Starting P24
• Christopher Bell – Starting P22
• Ross Chastain – Starting P21
• Erik Jones – Starting P37 (DraftKings)

We’ve already touched on Jones. He’s by far a better value on FanDuel than DraftKings. But you should find ways to play him regardless. The drivers above will be popular. Elliott has won here on this configuration. Keselowski is notoriously good on drafting tracks. Additionally, he was in the preview article earlier this week. Bell obviously has appeal as a Toyota once Erik Jones moves up and helps him to clear the field. And Ross Chastain, who also made the preview article earlier in the week, starts P21 and has a pair of runner-up finishes here. Expect plenty of exposure to flock to these drivers.

Ambetter Health 400 Picks

DraftKings

• Ryan Blaney – $10,200; Starting P6
• Christopher Bell – $9,100; Starting P22
• Ross Chastain – $8,600; Starting P21
• Erik Jones – $8,000; Starting P37
• Daniel Suarez – $7,300; Starting P23
• Corey LaJoie – $6,800; Starting P32

There are certainly things to love about this build. But the fact it uses every dollar in salary should give a little pause. Truthfully, I’m not dwelling on it. We have win equity and a potential dominator with Blaney starting P6. The Fords thrive on this track. From there I’m looking for position differential and good finishes. That’s where Bell and Chastain come in. Jones is in this build for the floor and ceiling. He’ll get 50 fantasy points at the very least if he grabs another top-15 finish. Suarez is a nice stack with Chastain and he does have a strong resume at this track. And lastly, we round it out with Corey LaJoie. He’s always a darling with upside at tracks like this. Is this lineup easy to duplicate? Sure. But it hits all the right notes for what I want when constructing Atlanta lineups.

FanDuel

• Joey Logano – $12,500; Starting P2
• Chase Elliott – $12,000; Starting P28
• Brad Keselowski – $11,000; Starting P24
• Erik Jones – $7,200; Starting P37
• Daniel Suarez – $7,000; Starting P23

FanDuel primarily comes down to nailing the winner and having others that finish well. Their scoring minimizes the value of dominator points. But we still have win equity with the likes of Logano, Elliot, and Keselowski to an extent. Similar to the DraftKings build, I don’t love that it utilizes most of the available salary. But I still feel good eating the chalk with Jones. And Suarez has three top-six finishes in the last four races here. This is the kind of track where they could all finish well and Logano could eat up the dominator points, as meaningless as they may be.

Editor’s Note: Joey Logano will have to drop to the rear and perform a pass-thru penalty. He will still be scored from P2 so it’s best to pivot to Ryan Blaney if you can get there. If not, Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, or any PD option below Logano works as well.

White Flag Thoughts Before You Go

You’ll recall in last week’s Daytona 500 article that I argued to save bankroll for future races. This week is no different. And it sucks to admit, but this track is in my backyard. Before the re-configuration it was one of my favorite tracks each year with the old surface and the tire degradation. But the repave and the new layout are both awful. The racing product isn’t great. Saturday’s Xfinity Series race was single-file racing in stage three and ultimately, the best plays were the drivers who didn’t run out of fuel. Las Vegas is next week and that’s a much more predictable intermediate track. I’ll be playing light on Sunday because the NASCAR DFS season begins next week in Sin City. But we still have a race to enjoy so I’d be lying if I said I didn’t have some action on tomorrow’s race.