After a short layoff from the Super Bowl, we’re finally back. Free agency is just about here and that means we’re going to see radically new opinions of teams. In particular, the decisions of Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, and Baker Mayfield will cause drastic reevaluations of fantasy assets.
Teams also tagged most of the premier wide receivers slated to be available. That means the target shares of wide receivers can be reliably projected out once we see these signal callers land.
Yes, this will change again with the NFL Draft. But dynasty football is about wheeling and dealing all year long. For success in 2024 and beyond, you should take advantage of every window to seek market inefficiencies.
Several offenses are about to have a new gloss to them. If you can figure out which offense to buy shares of before news breaks, you’ll be in a good spot to capitalize.
Three Offenses to Buy in 2024
Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith reignited this offense two years ago as the Comeback Player of the Year. Now? He’s facing a coaching change as Head Coach, Pete Carroll and Shane Waldron, the offensive coordinator credited with reviving his career, have been let go.
Part of the reason for this is Smith took a step back in terms of Average Depth of Target (aDOT). This measures how far each of Smith’s passes traveled on average. While he was 16th in this measure in 2022 among quarterbacks who played at least 12 games, he slid back to 23rd this past year among 25 eligible quarterbacks.
This is not necessarily a marker of bad QB play, given that the two people below him at 24th and 25th is Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes respectively. But it demonstrates a shift for Smith who was one of the best deep ball passers in 2022.
His +13.2% on completions over expectation on deep passes, in other words, his ability to hit these shots relative to the difficulty of the pass, led the league that year.
Enter Ryan Grubb. He spent the last two years working with Michael Penix Jr., a prospect often compared to Geno Smith, and led a devastating Washington attack that was an NCAA leader in deep ball passing over 20 yards. In particular, Penix completed 40 of 79 deep passes down the sideline for 917 yards last year. That is really impressive efficiency.
D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are all a bit cheaper given last year’s production and the understanding that they’ll have to share it moving forward. But improvements to Seattle’s terrible offensive line play last year and some new direction can make this another offense fully capable of supporting three receivers. This is an offense to buy.
Pittsburgh Steelers
George Pickens had his fair share of headlines this year. His effort seemed to be a weekly conversation. It’s widely acknowledged Pickens fell in the draft due to attitude concerns.
I couldn’t care less. Wide receivers having attitude problems is old hat. It hasn’t stopped the likes of Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, or Terrell Owens. Pickens, a demonstrably premium talent, has been held back by subpar quarterback play in Pittsburgh.
Arthur Smith also had a lot of difficulty avoiding media coverage. His prickly attitude to fantasy football and the perceived inability to use his best assets made him the ire of football fans everywhere.
Another non-story as Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson were right in line with preseason expectations of targets and touches.
What created these storylines is a lack of production. And it’s obvious where that lack of production came from if people weren’t so busy seeking every scapegoat they can.
Kenny Pickett and Desmond Ridder, plus the parade of backups that followed the two of them, were absolutely horrid. No amount of wide receiver play or scheming could fix that.
Expect the Steelers to employ Smith’s scheme, which had a lot of success with Ryan Tannehill under center, to great effect if they can find the right quarterback. This would elevate the Steelers as an offense to buy with Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth looking for better performances.
Atlanta Falcons
Finally, we end here with Arthur Smith’s last stop. As I said, criticism rained down over the misuse of London, Pitts, and Robinson. This was all in the absence of actual evidence. There were plenty of targets available for all three players. The issue at heart was their quarterback being unable to deliver the ball down the field or in the end zone.
These three players produced only 13 touchdowns between them. If rumors of Kirk Cousins looking at Atlanta real estate are related to his upcoming decision, expect this number to improve in 2024.
Even if the Cousins smoke is just that with no fire, the Falcons have signaled time and time again that they’re going to be shooting for a better quarterback this year. Take the current prices on these skill position players. The hype train is really just waiting for a reason to leave.
Whether it’s Cousins, Wilson, or one of the top draft prospects, people will start projecting these formerly top-10 talents as breakout players.
Get ahead of it. Atlanta is an offense to buy and will remain so until there’s a new quarterback in town to speculate with.