Hey folks, this week we’re shifting gears a little bit. Due to the whirlwind that was the trade deadline, we will unpack some of the players who shifted teams and look at how it may or may not affect their fantasy value.
Specifically, we’ll dive into a fantasy hockey analysis of Tyler Toffoli, Jake Guentzel, Anthony Duclair, Casey Mittlestadt, and Bowen Byram.
Let’s take a look…
Fantasy Hockey Analysis of 5 Players Traded at the Deadline
Tyler Toffoli, LW, Winnipeg Jets
Not many had Toffoli landing in Winnipeg. Random tweets were floating around ‘X’ an hour before this trade broke that Toffoli preferred to go to a team in the United States. Well, that didn’t happen.
Instead, he ended up on the team that arguably needed him the most. Vegas, New York Rangers, and Vancouver were the popular landing spots discussed for Toffoli. Had he ended up in any of those cities there was a strong likelihood he would have been on the second power-play unit.
With the Jets, there’s a very strong chance Toffoli will replace Alex Iafallo on the first power-play unit. Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor aren’t Jack Hughes, but they aren’t slouches either.
Toffoli was on pace for 60 points and his second consecutive 30-goal season. He’ll line up in the Jets’ top six and should see a small bump in ice time per game. The Jets will lean heavily on Toffoli to add offense to their lineup.
It is unlikely we see any increase in offense as a result of this deal. It’s hard to predict an uptick when you consider he spent most of his time centered by Jack Hughes. That said, we shouldn’t see a decrease either. The Jets will rely on Toffoli more to produce than the Devils needed to. There is a chance Toffoli’s production does bump slightly upward.
Toffoli is a soft buy.
Jake Guentzel, LW, Carolina Hurricanes
Don’t get me wrong, I like Guentzel in Carolina. I think it is a great fit for him and the team. Similar to Toffoli, it is hard to predict Guenztel will produce more than he did with his former team when you consider who he played with for the last several years.
When you lose Sidney Crosby as your everyday center, it is going to sting. Luckily, Carolina can offer Sebastian Aho as a replacement. Aho isn’t as flashy as Crosby, but he is very similar in that he plays a strong 200-foot game.
Throughout his career, without Crosby in the line-up, Guentzel has produced at, over a point per game. Some will argue that Guentzel’s success is a result of playing with Crosby. That’s simply not true. I fully expect Guentzel to continue to produce at or close to career averages. There is enough offensive talent in Carolina that Guentzel will be just fine.
Guentzel is a hold. His value should remain steady
Anthony Duclair, RW, Tampa Bay Lightning
Just as Duclair found his scoring tough he gets traded to a team deep offensively.
He was playing over 16 minutes a game and was on the ice for 48% of the San Jose Sharks powerplay. Likely, his ice time slides moving to Tampa Bay. Barring an injury, Duclair will be hard-pressed to get a look at Tampa’s number one power-play unit. The pieces are too entrenched.
Duclair has spent most of the season playing in the Sharks top six. As tumultuous as that top-six may be, he was still receiving prime minutes. Ten of his
Moving to Tampa Bay, Duclair slides down the depth charts. Nikita Kucherov is the undisputed number-one right winger on the roster. Steven Stamkos spends a fair amount of time playing wing, alongside Anthony Cirelli during the regular season. Most likely, Duclair will suit up on the third line and second power-play unit.
At first glance, it seems like a large demotion. At face value, it is. Playing on Tampa’s third line is going to result in significantly different matchups for Duclair. Tampa Bay’s third line of Nick Paul and Michael Eyesemont isn’t a huge change from Fabian Zetterlund and Mikael Granlund. They play an entirely different style of hockey, which may lend itself more to Duclair’s advantage.
Duclair is a strong support player. He’s better in a middle-six role where he can be relied upon for supplementary scoring.
He should do well in Tampa Bay’s middle-six. Ten of Duclair’s 27 points (in 56 games played) have come in the last eight games. The bar for improvement isn’t high at the moment. At the very least, Duclair should be on your radar as a free agent or waiver claim.
Duclair is a soft buy.
Casey Mittlestadt, C, Colorado Avalanche
Mittlestadt will finally get a taste of the playoffs. He lines up in a prime second-line center role for the Avalanche. Last night he started with Valeri Nichushkin and Jonathan Drouin.
Though, he’s already producing at a 62-point pace. It’s hard to imagine he will see much of an offensive increase moving to the Avalanche when he was getting 18 minutes a game in Buffalo. He played on the second power-play unit in Buffalo and will play on Colorado’s second unit.
His addition to the Avalanche is a bigger boost to the real-life team than it is for fantasy owners. Mittlestadt is a soft buy after the trade. The Avalanche are simply a better team. That alone could result in a slight uptick offensively.
Bowen Byram, D, Buffalo Sabres
The player Mittlestadt was traded for is likely the player to see the biggest boost in productivity of anyone on this list.
He gets out from behind Cale Makar, only to fall in behind Rasmus Dahlin. After Makar though, Byram was also behind Devon Toews, and Samual Girard on the depth chart. Moving to Buffalo, he should be given every opportunity to battle Owen Power for the second unit power-play job.
The real issue for Byram is health. He needs to remain healthy to take advantage of any offensive role with the Sabres. If he can remain healthy, he now has the opening to become the 50-point defenceman we all predicted and expected him to become.
Byram is fully in the buy category after this deal.
Thanks for reading.
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