As the season continues, and as we gain more understanding of pitchers and offenses, we learn more and more what makes a good pitching streamer. Finding the right matchups is essential and what you will find below are my favorite streamer targets for week four.
Pitching Streamers Available in Most Leagues (30%-50% Rostered)
Frankie Montas (SP – CIN)
Next Start: Monday 4/15 at SEA
Frankie Montas struggled slightly in his game against the Brewers, giving up three earned runs in five innings, but he looked good in his prior outing against Philly.
His seven strikeouts per nine innings would be the third lowest of his career, but his two walks per nine would be the best of his career. Montas has a chance to improve his K/9 rate as Seattle has the highest team strikeout rate in baseball at 29%. They also have 115 strikeouts against righty pitchers this season, the most in the league.
Montas has done a great job of limiting hard hit balls this season, leaning on his sinker and fastball, with 20% and 25% putaway rates respectively. His splitter has a 38% whiff rate. This helps explain why hitters are having a hard time getting good wood on the ball.
Montas also has a chance of improving his walk rate. Seattle has the seventh fewest walks against righties. The Mariners are also batting .203 against RHP, third worst in baseball.
Seattle was the best pitcher’s park in the MLB last season and is playing pitcher-friendly this season, so Montas should be a safe bet for a good game here.
Montas should be at the top of your list for pitching streamers in week four.
Widely Available Pitching Streamers (0%-30% Rostered)
Michael Wacha (SP – KC)
Next Start: Wednesday 4/17 at CWS
Michael Wacha has performed surprisingly well this season, with a 13 K/9 rate across 12 IP, and a 1.5 BB/9 rate. Both would be career bests outside of the shortened 2020 season. Here he is striking out the side against Chicago:
Michael Wacha's 3Ks in the 4th. pic.twitter.com/Ci8n0SGeeC
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 7, 2024
Wacha also has been able to induce a 48% GB rate, which would be the best of his career if the season ended today.
Part of his success this season may be due to a change to his pitch distribution. He has three pitches with a 30% whiff rate or higher including his changeup (45%), cutter (30%), and curveball (66%). Four of his pitches have a 20% putaway rate or better with his cutter sitting at 50%. Wacha added spin to four of his five pitches, which may be adding to his early success as well.
Wacha has a great matchup against the White Sox who are batting .216 against RHP, which is seventh worst in baseball. And Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago has been playing pitcher-friendly this season after playing relatively neutral last season.
You do not have to be skeptical about Wacha, but rather feel comfortable making him one of your high-priority pitching streamers for week four.
Ranger Suarez (SP – PHI)
Next Start: Tuesday 4/16 vs COL
Once again, Ranger Suarez makes for a great pitching streamer, with an excellent matchup against Colorado in Philly.
In his last game, Suarez struck out four and walked none against the Nationals, a team that typically picks up lots of walks. This is a great sign for Suarez, whose career BB/9 rate is over three.
Suarez is exceptional at inducing groundballs. He has a 54% career GB rate and a 64% GB rate this season. Colorado has the ninth-highest groundball rate this season, playing directly into his strength. Check out his wipeout curveball, which has helped him to a high GB%:
Ranger Suárez, Filthy 75mph Curveball. 😷 pic.twitter.com/m8A7eqOeJg
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 11, 2024
Colorado also has the seventh-worst strikeout rate as a team at 25%. That should help Suarez in his home park, which is neutral in park factors. This matchup should also improve Suarez’s 4.09 ERA and move it closer to his 2.67 xFIP and 2.38 SIERA.
Suarez is a great pitching streamer for week four and should be considered for rostering long term in deep leagues.
Steven Matz (SP – STL)
Next Start: Wednesday 4/17 at OAK
Steven Matz is widely available, and while fantasy managers may be hesitant to trust him, he has a great matchup against Oakland.
Matz gave up just two earned runs across 5.1 IP against the Dodgers in his last outing (as of writing). He has thrown 10.1 innings total, allowing two earned runs. He has six strikeouts to three walks on the season and has yet to allow a home run.
Matz has allowed line drives at a high rate this season, which could come back to bite him, but he has done well at limiting hard hit balls. The weak contact he has been able to induce has resulted in a 43% GB rate. His slider has been filthy, with a 50% whiff rate and a 50% putaway rate. His changeup also has a 40% whiff rate.
Oakland has been horrible against lefty pitchers this season. They have a .211 AVG, which is ninth worst, and the third fewest walks. Overall, the A’s have a 26% strikeout rate and a 47% GB rate, both of which are fourth worst in baseball.
Make sure Matz is on your radar as a deep league pitching streamer in this matchup.
Javier Assad (SP – ChC)
Next Start: Friday 4/19 vs MIA
Javier Assad has looked great in the rotation with Jameson Taillon on the IL, pitching to a 1.64 ERA this season.
Assad has a 9.8 K/9 and a 3.2 BB/9 rate, both of which are improvements over last season. He has also induced a 41% groundball rate. A major reason for his strikeout success is his nasty slider, seen here:
Javier Assad, Nasty 81mph Slider…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/AaEat9wiXg
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 9, 2024
Advanced ERA metrics suggest regression is coming. His low BABIP and high line drive and pull rates confirm that regression is on the way. He also has an insanely high 94% LOB rate that implies regression. However, that regression may not come in his matchup with a struggling Marlins team.
Miami’s 51% GB rate is worst in baseball, and Miami’s park is neutral in terms of park factors. That should help Assad keep runs off the board.
Assad is an excellent pitching streamer choice in deep leagues and is widely available.
Nick Lodolo (SP – CIN)
Next Start: Saturday 4/20 vs OAK
Nick Lodolo has yet to make his first start as of writing. He had a delayed start to the season in his return from injury. For a pitcher who has seen success, he is available to stream, and this is a great matchup for him.
Oakland should see similar struggles against Lodolo that they should see against Matz, with their difficulties against lefty pitchers. Oakland’s strikeout and groundball woes play directly into Lodolo’s strengths. He has an 11.6 K/9 rate and a 46% pull rate across 137 career innings pitched.
While Lodolo’s three walks per nine is not elite, it is above average and should also result in success against a struggling A’s team.
While it is just his second start, fantasy managers should add Lodolo where available as one of the better pitching streamers for the week ahead, and potentially hold him long term.
Backup Plan Streamers for Week 4
- PIT Martin Perez at NYM – Monday 4/15
- KC Seth Lugo at CWS – Monday 4/15
- NYM Luis Severino vs PIT – Tuesday 4/16
- PHI Cristopher Sanchez vs COL – Wednesday 4/17
- CIN Andrew Abbott vs LAA – Friday 4/19
- CLE Logan Allen vs OAK – Friday 4/19