The NASCAR Cup Series is a few weeks away from All-Star weekend in North Wilkesboro and we found ourselves another new winner for the 2024 season last week. Tyler Reddick rode the Michael Jordan “Jumpman” car to victory lane for his first win of 2024. With plenty of road courses still to come, he could easily end up with multiple victories this season. But this week NASCAR heads to the Monster Mile. Dover International Speedway plays host this weekend for the Würth 400. For the second straight year, Ryan Truex won at Dover for Saturday’s Xfinity Series race. Do we possibly see his brother get the win on Sunday? It’s possible as the duo are in line to replicate last year’s success. Here are this week’s NASCAR DFS Würth 400 picks.
Würth 400 Picks: The Top 10
- Kyle Busch (#8 Richard Childress Racing)
- Ryan Blaney (#12 Team Penske)
- William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Tyler Reddick (#45 23XI Racing)
- Noah Gragson (#10 Stewart-Haas Racing)
- Denny Hamlin (#11 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Chase Briscoe (#14 Stewart-Haas Racing)
- Michael McDowell (#34 Front Row Motorsports)
- Alex Bowman (#48 Hendrick Motorsports)
- J. Allmendinger (#16 Kaulig Racing)
This is an interesting top 10. Seriously, and you’ll see why when we look at all the position differential plays. We look at this top 10 and it doesn’t seem like there’s a ton of win equity here. Kyle Busch surprisingly wins the pole after a rough stretch. And this isn’t a track Blaney typically dominates. And then we have cheaper drivers like Gragson, Briscoe, McDowell, Bowman, and Allmendinger. Good GPP plays? Sure. Dominator potential? Hardly. Several lineups will, and rightfully so, start with William Byron and Denny Hamlin. If not playing them together it’s at least reasonable to target one of them. They have relatively easy paths to move up and gather laps led. And Dover isn’t typically a track where the polesitter runs away with the first stage. But we really need to consider the rest of the field.
Which Value-Priced Würth 400 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?
- Brad Keselowski – Starting P24
- Daniel Suarez – Starting P31
- Ryan Preece – Starting P28
- John Hunter Nemechek – Starting P34
- Corey Heim – Starting P32
- Justin Haley – Starting P36
- Zane Smith – Starting P37
Once again we will just list the drivers in one group for the Würth 400 picks. I found myself including the same value plays for both DraftKings and FanDuel. The top option is likely Keselowski. He starts outside the top 20, but both RFK Racing cars could finish in the top 10. Suarez doesn’t have that level of expectation. However, he’s cheap and likely provides value with a top 20 finish. Preece and Nemechek have decent equipment and are fully capable of moving up. But they do tend to get caught up in some chaos so they’re better suited for tournaments. Corey Heim appeared in this week’s Würth 400 preview. He didn’t look all that uncomfortable getting his first experience in the NextGen car. And we’ve seen drivers make their debuts and surprise with a top 20 finish. Mix and match these guys when building your lineups.
Which Higher-Priced Drivers Got A Similar Bump?
- Kyle Larson – Starting P21
- Christopher Bell – Starting P33
- Ross Chastain – Starting P22
- Chase Elliott – Starting P29
Qualifying was a bit eventful. All four drivers could arguably win this race. And yet they all start outside the top 20. Even Martin Truex Jr. will start P15. Bell junked his car on his qualifying lap. The damage sustained wasn’t too bad. The broadcast indicated it would be easy to fix. But the expectation is that all four drivers can, and should, be heavily rostered. We get win equity, PD, and potential dominator upside for all four drivers. Would it surprise anyone if all four drivers were in the top 10 come race’s end? All four are eligible in cash games and tournaments. However, it may be challenging to get these two into a lineup with either Byron or Hamlin. That certainly seems easier to do on FanDuel when considering these Würth 400 picks.
Würth 400 Picks
DraftKings
- Denny Hamlin – $10,800; Starting P6
- Christopher Bell – $10,500; Starting P33
- Chase Elliott – $9,900; Starting P29
- Chris Buescher – $8,000; Starting P18
- Justin Haley – $5,400; Starting P36
- Zane Smith – $5,300; Starting P37
Obviously, a unique choice to punt with two incredibly cheap drivers. But we do have some win equity with Hamlin, Bell, and Elliott. Chris Buescher should move up and score well and he’ll come in at less ownership than teammate and boss, Brad Keselowski. Justin Haley and Zane Smith are wild cards. Smith junked his car in practice and didn’t post a qualifying lap. He starts dead last and cannot get you negative points. Even if he just finishes 26th by means of others wrecking out, he can return value. And Justin Haley has a good starting spot and has surprised with some respectable performances this year. Moreover, he turns 26 on Sunday and has the birthday narrative on his side. If you’re so inclined you can pivot off Buescher or Bell or free up some salary. That move can get you off two drivers that are punts.
FanDuel
- Williams Byron – $12,500; Starting P3
- Chase Elliott – $11,000; Starting P29
- Ty Gibbs – $10,000; Starting P19
- Brad Keselowski – $8,500; Starting P24
- Chris Buescher – $8,000; Starting P18
We lock in this lineup with five drivers that can very well finish in the top 10. Dominator points are de-valued on FanDuel, but Byron still has a chance to put up 80-90 fantasy points on FanDuel. We’ve already touched on the two RFK drivers in addition to Elliott. Gibbs was a driver who appeared in this week’s preview article. I’m more than happy to lock him into my Würth 400 picks. We’ve seen him perform extremely well on short tracks that utilize the intermediate aero package. The one flaw I found with this build is that Gibbs/Buescher/Keselowski may not have the best correlation but I won’t dwell on it. I think all five can still score well. And if you de-value laps led on FanDuel, you can pivot off Byron/Elliott for Chastain/Bell.
White Flag Thoughts Before You Go
Dover should produce some exciting racing. The short-track package has been awful for the NextGen car. Fortunately, we do get the intermediate package this week. This track is bumpy as we saw both Zane Smith and Kaz Grala crash hard in practice. Even Bell lost control of his car in qualifying. There should be comers and goers. It’s a great race with plenty of laps to be led after we took it easy last week for Talladega. It would be pretty exciting if Truex could win this race so the Truex brothers could go back-to-back at Dover once again. But there are so many ways we could go about building our lineups. You could definitely target more position differential on FanDuel. On DraftKings, we still need to get dominator points. I hope you enjoyed this week’s Würth 400 picks. Best of luck with your contests on Sunday!