NASCAR DFS: AdventHealth 400 Picks

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Kansas Speedway kicking off back-to-back weekends of (what should be) great racing! The AdventHealth 400 goes green Sunday afternoon. Kansas has produced some outstanding and exciting racing in the four races we’ve seen over the last two years with the NextGen car. In this week’s AdventHealth 400 Preview, we took an early look at the drivers we liked prior to practice and qualifying. Sure enough, we will still like plenty of those drivers for Sunday afternoon. Kansas is a track that delivers multiple grooves for racing. We’ll see comers and goers. We should see different leaders as the race progresses. Yes, the Toyotas have won the last four races here. But we shouldn’t take that as scripture. Here are Sunday’s NASCAR DFS AdventHealth 400 picks for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups!

AdventHealth 400 Picks: The Top 10 

1. Christopher Bell (#20 Joe Gibbs Racing)
2. Ross Chastain (#1 Trackhouse Racing)
3. Noah Gragson (#10 Stewart-Haas Racing)
4. Kyle Larson (#5 Hendrick Motorsports)
5. Kyle Busch (#8 Richard Childress Racing)
6. Ty Gibbs (#54 Joe Gibbs Racing)
7. Austin Cindric (#2 Team Penske)
8. Michael McDowell (#34 Front Row Motorsports)
9. Chase Elliott (#9 Hendrick Motorsports)
10. Chase Briscoe (#14 Stewart-Haas Racing)

Quite the top 10 we have for Sunday’s race. I was hoping that, based on his recent finishes, we might have a chance to get leverage on Bell. Unfortunately, that won’t be the case. Bell won the pole and likely is a heavy favorite to lead early laps to collect dominator points. But amidst this top 10, we have plenty of win equity. Kyle Larson looked sporty in practice. Ty Gibbs is another Toyota that has sneaky potential to score his first Cup Series win at Toyota. We may only find ourselves targeting a few of these drivers. Based on the rest of the lineup, we have some other options that offer position differential in addition to dominator upside with win equity. Let’s dig just a bit deeper to unearth the remaining AdventHealth 400 picks.

Which Value-Priced AdventHealth 400 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?

DraftKings

• Brad Keselowski – $7,700; Starting P30
• Daniel Suarez – $7,200; Starting P27
• Ryan Preece – $6,400; Starting P32
• John Hunter Nemechek – $6,000; Starting P29
• Austin Hill – $5,800; Starting P34
• Corey LaJoie – $5,700; Starting P28
• Justin Haley – $5,100; Starting P35

FanDuel

• Ryan Blaney – $9,500; Starting P26
• Brad Keselowski – $7,800; Starting P30
• Daniel Suarez – $7,000; Starting P27
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – $5,500; Starting P21
• John Hunter Nemechek – $5,000; Starting P29
• Ryan Preece – $4,800; Starting P32
• Austin Hill – $4,000; Starting P34

There are a few drivers that certainly seem like traps in this group. And I’ll be honest, I’ve written up Brad Keselowski ad nausea three months into the season. Even I have some concerns about him this weekend. Is the starting spot appealing? It sure is. He’s finished top 20 in the last two spring races at Kansas. He even grabbed a top 10 last fall in the playoffs at this track. But ownership will flock to him because of the starting spot. Be mindful with your exposure. Ryan Blaney is an easy discount play on FanDuel. He’s really the only Ford I have a sliver of confidence in at this track. He should be played in all formats on FanDuel. But everyone else in this group, while tempting, isn’t necessarily a slam dunk.

Which Higher Priced Drivers Got A Similar Bump?

• Denny Hamlin – Starting P14
• Tyler Reddick – Starting P15
• William Byron – Starting P36
• Bubba Wallace – Starting P23

William Byron was very fast in practice but then tagged the wall in qualifying. For that reason, he posted a slow lap and will start deep in the field. But there’s arguably win equity with all four drivers here. And that’s not necessarily a hot take. Hamlin, Reddick, and Wallace have all won here in the NextGen Era. Byron has three wins this season already. I doubt he wins starting this deep in the field. But all four are certainly playable. We professed our love for all six Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing cars earlier this week. And Byron runs for Hendrick Motorsports so there’s no questioning the equipment. All four drivers mix well into lineups where you target an additional driver in the top 10, like Christopher Bell or Kyle Larson, to lead laps early on.

AdventHealth 400 Picks

DraftKings

• Denny Hamlin – $11,300; Starting P14
• William Byron – $10,500; Starting P36
• Christopher Bell – $10,000; Starting P1
• Daniel Suarez – $7,200; Starting P27
• Corey LaJoie – $5,700; Starting P28
• Justin Haley – $5,100; Starting P35

This is what you are looking at if trying to squeeze a trio of $10K drivers on DraftKings. You do get great win equity with this lineup. You get the early dominators with Bell. If he collects a majority of the stage one laps led, he’s optimal with a top five finish. Hamlin can come on late and score big if he runs away in stage three. And William Byron offers position differential in addition to win equity. We take comfort here but get uncomfortable with the rest of the build. Daniel Suarez should score well but we have concerns with Corey LaJoie and Justin Haley. We should set expectations low here. Maybe they can move up five spots from where they start. Anything more than that is simply gravy. This reads more as a cash build than a tournament lineup. I’ll play it regardless.

FanDuel

• Denny Hamlin – $13,500; Starting P14
• William Byron – $12,500; Starting P36
• Christopher Bell – $11,000; Starting P1
• Daniel Suarez – $7,000; Starting P27
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – $5,500; Starting P21

If anything, this lineup should be unique at the very least. Similar to the DraftKings lineup, we start with a core of Hamlin, Byron, and Bell. Bell as the last piece is more interchangeable on FanDuel. FanDuel doesn’t reward for fastest laps, and laps led are only 0.1 points. So, if you wanted to pivot off him to upgrade elsewhere, I wouldn’t fault you. But we do find position differential with Byron (duh) and Suarez once again. The key to this build is what we get out of Stenhouse. He actually looked like he had a top 10 car at Dover. But he wrecked in stage three and ruined my Sunday. I’ll go back to him this week though. He’s typically performed better in the spring Kansas races than the fall. The last two years he’s finished 12^th and 8^th. There’s upside and he shouldn’t be outrageously rostered.

White Flag Thoughts Before You Go

In this section I usually preach managing bankroll and being responsible. This isn’t one of those weeks. I’m not saying pour it all out. But Kansas provides some of the best analytics we’ll see for a race. The practice speeds tend to translate well. And we also have enough of a sample size to trust track history in the NextGen car. The AdventHealth 400 picks aren’t necessarily a lock. We still have to account for the chaos we can’t foresee. But Kansas, while not a destination spot, is arguably the best track for the NextGen car. If anything else, take in Sunday’s race. Enjoy it. The racing should be outstanding and next week we get another phenomenal track in Darlington Raceway. Best of luck, see you all in victory lane!