Before we get into this week’s event, it would not feel right to continue on normally without mentioning Grayson Murray. This community lost an important piece this weekend. Nothing can change what has happened, but hopefully, this opens up discussions that were not open for Grayson, or at least he didn’t feel were open. I think the best way we can honor Grayson is to love each other and look out for those around us. You never know what that person across from you is going through, and a simple hello or smile could make their day. Grayson, you will be dearly missed by all in the world of golf.
Although most of this feels so much smaller and to some extent, unimportant, it’s time to take a look at this week’s tournament. The PGA heads to our northern neighbor, specifically Hamilton, Ontario, for the RBC Canadian Open. 156 golfers will tee it up, headlined by 2-time winner Rory McIlroy. Most of the other studs have chosen to pass on the trip to Canada and will prepare for The Memorial next week. The RBC Canadian Open operates similarly to The U.S. Open and The Open, in that they see new courses every year. This year’s course is Hamilton Golf & Country Club, hosting the event for the first time since 2019. Let’s take a closer look at this course.
The Course: Hamilton Golf & Country Club
The par 70 course comes in under 7,100 yards, making it open to all types of golfers. Added distance could certainly help some of the bombers, but considering the short hitters that have had success here, it’s not a must-have. It will almost certainly come down to wedge performance and putting. Naturally coming with a par 70, birdies will come at a higher premium than other courses. Players will need to take advantage of the 2 par 5s and a handful of short par 4s.
The greens are the most challenging aspect of the course. In 2019, Rory McIlroy gained over 20 strokes to the field, doing so mostly with his irons and putter. When I say this is a pitch and putt competition, this is the DEFINITION of a pitch and putt competition. Only very poor shots will cause any penalty off the tee, and the large greens will lessen both the amount of shots and the degree of difficulty around the green. These huge greens feature plenty of undulations and differing speeds. The winner will almost certainly be determined by the play within 20 feet of the cup. I have a few guys that fit this mold, but if you look elsewhere, I highly suggest you stick to those you know will perform with the putter. That is an absolute must here!
Best Bets: RBC Canadian Open
Tommy Fleetwood (+1800)
Had it not been for Nick Taylor’s 72 foot putt in the playoff, Tommy Fleetwood would have been the defending Canadian Open Champion. And while Fleetwood has not played in Hamilton, his 2 Canadian Open finishes of T6 and last year’s playoff loss are hard to ignore. Fleetwood knows how to play in Canada.
Statistically, Fleetwood makes perfect sense here. He’s about as consistent you could be off the tee, with both distance and accuracy. In the last 12 months, he’s only lost strokes Off the Tee twice, and both times was less than 1 stroke. His approach game is world-class as well, especially with his wedges. Should he miss these large greens, bettors should have no worry at all. Fleetwood has yet to lose strokes Around the Green in 2024. Finally, Tommy Fleetwood is a fairly strong putter. He will never lose more than a stroke, and often times will gain 4 or 5 in an event. Last year in Canada, Fleetwood gained almost 9 strokes on the green…
At 18-1, Tommy Fleetwood is actually the second favorite in the field. That’s especially high considering Scottie Scheffler is not in the field, but you will not hear any complaints from me. With this field and his skill, I expected this number to be much closer to 12-1. I wouldn’t be shocked to see it go down before we start on Thursday. Get this number while you can!
Adam Hadwin (+5000)
You have to have a Canadian to cheer for in the Canadian Open! Well, until last year, that would have been an awful bet to make. Nick Taylor took down a drought of a Canadian winner that lasted over 50 years. I’m thinking Adam Hadwin might be able to make it 2 years in a row.
One reason is Adam always plays well at home. In 2019 in Hamilton, Hadwin finished 6th. He also has a T4, T7, and T12 in his career playing the RBC Canadian Open. In addition to his solid starts in Canada, Hadwin fits the blueprint for success very well. His approach game is very solid, and his finishes come and go with his putter. Luckily for Hadwin and his backers, it tends to be strong. He has had a streak of a few bad outings, but there’s nothing like a homecoming event to get things back where they should be.
Adam Hadwin was tackled by a security guard as he tried to celebrate with Nick Taylor last year, and this time around, the roles will be reversed. Hopefully for Taylor’s sake, the security team this year is fully briefed on the players’ looks. And hopefully, for your sake, you’ll have a 50-1 ticket on Hadwin!
Charley Hoffman (+15000, Top 10 +1200)
47-year-old Charley Hoffman is running out of time to grab his 5th win on the PGA Tour. He last won in 2016, but has 5 runner-up finishes since, including this past February in Phoenix. Another runner-up finish was at the 2017 Canadian Open, which was of course not in Hamilton, but it is nice to see some solid results in Canada.
The reason Hoffman sports such high odds is because of his long hiatus from the winner’s circle, but also because of his putting woes. Ball-striking wise, Charley Hoffman is amongst the best in this field. However, his recent finishes have been stymied by struggles on the green, as he has not gained strokes since his runner-up in Phoenix where he gained almost 7 strokes. This has been the story of his long career, with his best finishes coming with a huge reliance putting performance. Fortunately for Hoffman, he hasn’t had anything but success on Canadian greens.
Charley Hoffman has 4 straight Canadian Opens where he gained over 2 strokes putting. I highly doubt he can say that for any other event on Tour. Even with rotating host courses, there’s something about putting in Canada that brings out the best in Hoffman. Winning this tournament is a stretch, but the 12-1 number for a Top 10 finish is great value. I think both are worth a sprinkle for Seagull!