Identifying breakouts for Fantasy Football before a season can pave the path to winning Fantasy Football Leagues. Targeting players set to explode for Fantasy Football in your Redraft drafts, or trading for these players in Dynasty Leagues can give you the edge to bring home a championship. If you know me as a content creator, you know my intention (and original brand) has always been to help you “Play 2 Win”. That is the goal of this article – to help you win by outlining my favorite Fantasy Football breakouts for 2024.
Most Fantasy Football terms are defined differently, so I need to clarify what I personally mean by a “breakout”. Your definition, my definition, and the definition of countless others for a Fantasy Football “breakout” may have some similarities but also can be looked at completely differently at the same time. I define a breakout as – a player who can take a substantial leap in Fantasy Football production or a player who can have an immediate Fantasy Football scoring impact who in either case is a major positional advantage in lineups for a given year. An example from last year could be Brock Purdy who averaged the 6th most Fantasy PPG (points per game) for the quarterback position in 2023 at 19.2, after ranking 29th as a rookie the year prior with 12.3 through nine games. Another example could be CJ Stroud, who made a massive impact in his first NFL season by averaging the 7th most Fantasy PPG (18.7) for the quarterback position. In one case you had a player taking a leap forward in Fantasy production, while the other player instantly had a Fantasy impact. In both examples, these players were extremely valuable, difference makers for their positions and advantages to have in lineups.
The players listed below are all quarterback breakout candidates for 2024 that you will want to roster for Fantasy Football this season. The combination of perceived skill set, situation, data, opportunity, and other factors support my take on these specific players. Embrace big seasons to come from these guys.
Fantasy Football Quarterback Breakouts for 2024
Anthony Richardson, Colts QB
The excitement was real for Anthony Richardson following the NFL Combine prior to last season, as AR arguably had the most athletic quarterback performance ever at it. The dual-threat numbers Richardson produced at Florida, the combine metrics, and the overall skillset resulted in the Indianapolis Colts selecting him with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Unfortunately, a season-ending shoulder surgery would cut Richardson’s rookie season short after appearing in just four games.
Although the sample size is small, we were able to see plenty of major green flags for Fantasy Football out of Richardson as a rookie last season. Richardson played in four games, but only two full games where he played a majority of the snaps. Those two games:
- Week 1: 24/37 for 223 passing yards. A passing touchdown with an interception. 10 rushing attempts for 40 yards and a rushing touchdown. 21.9 Fantasy Points as the QB4 for the week
- Week 4: 11/25 for 200 passing yards. Two passing touchdowns. 10 rushing attempts for 56 yards and a rushing touchdown. 29.6 Fantasy Points as the QB2 for the week
There were concerns surrounding Richardson as a passer, but in this small window of games we saw him toss a couple of touchdowns with some decent passing yard numbers through the air. Four rushing touchdowns in four appearances lines up with the upside we knew AR had with his legs. I will yet again note the small sample size but we cannot dismiss two massive Fantasy scores in two full games played.
The Colts continue to build around Richardson, and the offense looks better than people will give credit to. After setting career-highs in 2023 in targets (156), receptions (109) and receiving yards (1,152) Michael Pittman Jr. was extended. Jonathan Taylor, who has a season with 1,811 rushing yards paired with 20 total touchdowns (2021) is healthy. Josh Downs produced 771 receiving yards as a third-round rookie last season. Adonai Mitchell was selected in the second-round of this year’s NFL Draft out of Texas and profiles as an explosive field stretcher. The Colts also selected offensive lineman in rounds three and four this year.
I recently shared some research from the last five seasons that details how 78.94% of quarterbacks who rushed for 500+ yards finished as a Top 10 Fantasy QB, and that this sample size averaged a 6.95 Fantasy finish. Richardson profiles as a quarterback who can rush for 500+ yards in 2024. The dual-threat upside that Richardson brings for Fantasy Football, paired with a quality set of weapons and supporting system in Indy will mean a 2024 breakout for the second-year quarterback for Fantasy Football. Richardson has top five upside.
Dynasty Fantasy Football Spotlight:
Anthony Richardson**Small sample size goes a long way**
Prospect Profile:
– Last 2 szns at Florida per game avgs:
– 19.55 attempts / 10.7 completions
– 153.9 passing yards
– 1.15 passing TDs / 0.7 INT
– 52.75… pic.twitter.com/K1LIeC9cuz— Skrip (@P2WFantasy) February 17, 2024
Caleb Williams, Bears QB
Through three college seasons, Caleb Williams produced 10,082 passing yards and 93 passing touchdowns paired with 986 rushing yards and 27 rushing touchdowns. Williams won the Heisman Trophy in 2022 after finishing third in passing yards (4,537) and leading the FBS in passing touchdowns (42); an extremely productive profile for a guy who can get it done through the air and on the ground. Williams displays his elite arm talent by making plays at all three levels. Even with a noted below-average offensive line in college, Williams showed abilities to make plays under pressure, escape, and extend plays. Williams is mobile inside the pocket and can break off runs when needed. Williams is also solid throwing on the run and making the off-balance plays happen. Williams has a high football IQ, great vision, and is an overall playmaker. Many regard Caleb Williams as the best quarterback prospect in some time, and maybe one of the best ever. Williams was selected first overall by the Chicago Bears in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Caleb Williams gets
D'Andre Swift
DJ Moore
Keenan Allen
Kmet
EverettMAYBE an Odunze at Pick 9…
I can't remember a rookie QB set up for success more
— Skrip (@P2WFantasy) March 17, 2024
I cannot recall the last time a rookie quarterback stepped into the situation that Caleb Williams has in Chicago. The weapons in this Chicago offense are unreal. As a Bears fan excited for this season, I also feel bad for Justin Fields who I felt was never supported or set up for success as a Bear. Looking at Caleb’s offense in 2024:
- DJ Moore (WR) – career-high 1,364 receiving yards in 2023 paired with a career-high eight receiving touchdowns
- Keenan Allen (WR) – 108 receptions for 1,243 receiving yards and seven touchdowns last season with the Chargers through just 13 games played
- Rome Odunze (WR) – ninth overall pick by Chicago in the 2024 NFL Draft. Led the FBS in 2023 with 1,640 receiving yards
- Cole Kmet (TE) – career-highs in receptions (73) and receiving yards (719) in 2023
- Gerald Everett (TE) – 51 receptions for 411 receiving yards with the Chargers in 2023
- D’Andre Swift (RB) – career-high 1,049 rushing yards in 2023 with the Eagles with a history of pass-catching upside
The talent surrounding Caleb Williams will give him plenty of reliable options in 2024. Pairing a great situation with a great talent just screams Fantasy Football success. We have witnessed rookie quarterbacks such as CJ Stroud (2023) and Justin Herbert (2020) have immediate Fantasy Football impacts – and Caleb Williams is the next man up. Williams will comfortably be inside my top 10 Fantasy quarterbacks this season, it is just a matter of how spicy I will get with my ranking of him.
Caleb Williams – Next Man Up #NFLDraft #fantasyfootball pic.twitter.com/EJqu0NtOmb
— Skrip (@P2WFantasy) April 26, 2024
Jayden Daniels, Commanders QB
2023 was a massive year for Jayden Daniels. He won the Heisman Trophy along with the SEC Offensive Player of the Year amongst other awards. Not only did Daniels produce 3,812 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns, but he also rushed for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns. Daniels is the only player in FBS history to pass for 12,00 yards and rush for 3,000 yards through 55 games. Daniels has left a heavy stamp on LSU’s history book. Daniels’s athletic abilities are a combination of speed, agility, and arm strength. Daniels has solid pocket management and is able to evade pressure while moving around the pocket. Daniels’ arm strength allows him to make plays at all three levels and he has noted deep ball accuracy. Daniels creates plays, effectively throws on the run, and is an electric runner. When you look at the skillset paired with the combined passing and rushing numbers you get the epitome of a dual-threat quarterback. The Commanders selected Daniels with the second overall pick in 2024.
Terry McLaurin has finished four straight seasons with over 1,000 receiving yards for the Commanders. Jahan Dotson finished with 523 receiving yards and seven touchdowns as a first-round selection in 2022 but had a sophomore slump in 2022. I do still have faith in Dotson as a talent. Austin Ekeler joins the Commanders, who has caught over 50 passes as a running back with the Chargers for five straight seasons. This group of players feels like reliable options for Daniels in his rookie season. The Commanders also drafted tight end Ben Sinnott in the second round along with wide receiver Luke McCaffrey in the third round of this year’s NFL Draft. Daniels may not have the elite core that Caleb Williams or JJ McCarthy (Vikings) have, but he has much better options than fellow rookie quarterbacks Drake Maye (New England) and Bo Nix (Broncos) do.
I wrote a piece here for Fantrax prior to last season titled Keys to Winning in Fantasy Football: Draft Mobile Quarterbacks. I will have to create an updated piece for this emphasis because the power of the mobile quarterback is real. Daniels will enter the NFL as one of the better rushers of the football, but his prospect profile shows he is far more than that. You can look at a guy like Anthony Richardson’s prospect profile and see primarily rushing numbers that pop but in Daniels’ case he hit both passing and rushing numbers to an extremely high level. Daniels can be a quarterback who rushes for 500+ yards, and if he is able to connect well with his weapons this can translate to a top 12 Fantasy finish as a rookie.
The math is mathing out for Jayden Daniels to have a strong year 1 in Fantasy Football #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #lsu #commanders #nfl pic.twitter.com/fbC06SOX5Q
— Fantrax (@Fantrax) May 23, 2024
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins QB
2023 was Tua Tagovailoa’s first full season in the NFL after playing 13, 13, and 10 games in the three seasons prior. 2022 Tua averaged the ninth most Fantasy PPG at 18.4, but with the season being cut short by four games I am not sure we can label it as a “breakout” season. This past season Tua averaged 16.7 Fantasy PPG, which ranked 16th for the position. Despite Tua having some spike weeks, he was not a consistent plug into single quarterback Fantasy lineups. Although Fantasy inconsistent, the numbers really jumped out to me from 2023 for where Tua ranked vs the positon via playerprofiler:
- #9 in both passing attempts (560) and deep ball attempts (64)
- #7 in red zone attempts (76)
- #1 in passing yards (4,624)
- #5 in passing touchdowns (29)
- #10 in air yards (4,256)
- #2 in yards per attempt (8.3)
- #1 accuracy rating
- #7 in true completion percentage
- #2 in deep ball completion percentage
- #7 in play-action completion percentage
- #10 in red zone completion percentage
- #4 in clean pocket completion percentage
- #6 in true passer rating
- #7 completion percentage vs man / #9 completion percentage vs zone
- #8 passer rating vs man / #12 passer rating vs zone
- #9 accuracy rating vs man / #5 accuracy rating vs zone
That is a lot of numbers to type out there. Sparknoting this says Tua had upside through production numbers through the air, was highly efficient and was extremely accurate in 2023. Having production, efficiency, and accuracy numbers so tightly tied to Tua’s first full season to me hints that the Fantasy numbers will follow.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are arguably the most explosive wide receiver duo in the NFL. Hill produced 1,799 receiving yards and scored 13 touchdowns in 2023, looking nearly unstoppable every week. News broke this week that Jaylen Waddle was extended three years on a $84.75 million dollar deal. Waddle’s overall numbers were down in 2023 due to a shortened season but he did produce 1,356 receiving yards and scored eight touchdowns in 2022. Hill and Waddle have both been inside the top 12 for the position in yards after catch in back-to-back seasons, which means Tua just needs to get the ball into their hands and they will make plays. The listed numbers above make it clear that Tua is very good at getting the ball to his top two guys. Jonnu Smith joined the Dolphins in free agency after producing a career-high 582 receiving yards in 2023. The Dolphins also added veteran Odell Beckham Jr. and selected highly productive rookie Malik Washington in round six of this year’s NFL Draft. The trio of Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane and fourth-round rookie Jaylen Wright offer a ton of flair out of the backfield as guys who can explode on the ground but also catch.
Tua Tagovailia seems to be undervalued and nearly disrespected. Tua has displayed plenty of upside through the air, along with the combination of accuracy and efficiency that can translate to a leap in Fantasy Football production in 2024. The Dolphins are one of the best offenses in the NFL, and Tua is the point guard of it.
Tua Tagovailoa's 2023
#1 in Passing Yards (4,624)
#5 in Passing TD's (29)
#2 in Yards Per Attempt (8.3)
#1 Accuracy Rating (playerprofiler)Fantasy Football
– 7 weeks w/ 18+ Points
– 4 weeks w/ 22+ Points
– 2 weeks w/ 28+ PointsKTC Value – QB16
Feels like a value pic.twitter.com/PgSQa0mim8
— Skrip (@P2WFantasy) May 22, 2024