It’s time for some links-style golf, innit?! The PGA and DPWT combine for the sanctioned Genesis Scottish Open for the 3rd consecutive year, functioning as a quality prep week for The Open. The combination makes this event the most unique week on Tour. The field is split right down the middle, half being the best from the PGA and the other half being the best from the DPWT. Other than majors, most of these golfers very rarely will compete for the same title. Other than Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay, all the big guns from the PGA will be utilizing the ingrained prep week for the final major of 2024.
For many of the DPWT players, this is much more than major prep. Many of these golfers will not have a shot at Royal Troon, so this is their only gauge for how they stack up against the world’s best. With the newly structured qualification from DPWT to the PGA, the 10 best golfers will receive their 2025 Tour card. This will be a gigantic week not only for the points but also knowing they can compete on the PGA Tour should they have the opportunity. The 2 years of the Genesis Scottish Open have primarily been dominated by the PGA golfers, but I would keep an eye out for some of the young DPWT guys. They’re extremely talented, hungry, and ready to show that they can compete with anyone in the world!
The Course: The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club is a fantastic coast-lined, links-style course that functions as an Open prep perfectly. The par 70 course can play up to 7,100 yards, but with the expected windy conditions, it can play much shorter or much longer depending on direction. Like most links courses, it plays very firm and there is a ton of rollout. This can keep shorter hitters in contention, but historically speaking, longer hitters have thrived here. The added rollout and ability to fly it through the wind is enough to make Driving Distance a huge factor for The Genesis Scottish Open.
Ball-striking is always a huge factor, but even more so at The Renaissance Club. Winning scores will range from anywhere from low single digits to the 20s, and that is all dependent on the weather conditions. But no matter what type of scoring occurs, the best ball-strikers will rise to the top. Those, and the golfers that can get creative around these green complexes. There will be a lot of putting on the fairways around the greens, so look for great ball-strikers that can get cute and lag putt it well. Golfers that hit it far, hit it well, and avoid 3 putts will be the ones to place bets on. And I have a few for you to consider!
Best Bets: Genesis Scottish Open
Tommy Fleetwood (+2000)
When it comes to consistency in the game of golf, it does not get much better than Tommy Fleetwood. He has 1 missed cut in the last 12 months when he lost over 7 strokes on Approach at Bay Hill. In his 16 events in 2024, he’s finished outside the Top 40 only 3 times. He comes into Scotland having gained at least 6 strokes to the field in 6 consecutive events, with his worst finish being a T26 at Valhalla.
Not only does Fleetwood come to The Renaissance Club with fantastic form, he also has some of the best course history in this field. While he hasn’t won here (yet), he’s finished T6 and T4 in the past 2 years. He also lost in a playoff against Aaron Rai in 2020 when this was still a DPWT event. To make things even MORE intriguing with Fleetwood, his approach has never gained more than 2 strokes at The Renaissance Club. He enters having done so in 6 of his last 9 events, so I think it is fair to expect Fleetwood’s best approach performance this week. If his approach improves here at all, he will undoubtedly be in contention on Sunday.
It’s weird to say this, but Tommy Fleetwood, an unarguable Top 10 golfer in the world, is still looking for his first PGA Tour win. He has a whole flurry of podium finishes and 8 worldwide wins, but never a PGA-sanctioned event. How fitting would it be for him to grab his first win at a practically DPWT event on a DPWT course? I haven’t been this confident in someone being on the final leaderboard in a very long time. You can feel extremely confident in a Top 10 bet, but I think Tommy Fleetwood finally gets the job done and wins on Tour. And maybe, just maybe, the winning will roll over to next week at Royal Troon…
Max Homa (+5000)
I was shocked to see a number this high next to Max Homa’s name. Has his form been great? Absolutely not. But a player of Homa’s stature should not be 50-1 in a half-and-half event. Especially considering his fantastic course fit and history at The Renaissance Club! Let’s dive into it.
As I said, Homa has had some struggles over the past 2 months. He came into Valhalla as a popular pick, having finished T3 at The Masters and T8 at Wells Fargo the week before. His T35 was mediocre at best, but he has since then missed 2 cuts and only had 1 finish inside the Top 60. Luckily for Homa and his backers, he loves the links and The Renaissance Club. He has finished T16 and T12 in the 2 tournaments here, but more importantly, he did so while losing 3+ strokes Approaching the Green both years. Homa’s iron and wedge play is his biggest asset, so his having such solid performances while not having a good week approaching is a great sign. Should Homa click with his second shot, he will 100% be competing to win on Sunday.
Homa’s success here even with the approach woes is primarily due to how well this course fits him. He hits it far and is extremely talented in the short game. I think him having a few weeks off, and getting overseas early for some extra practice will really show this week. Ultimately, Homa is here to win at Royal Troon. But I would hate to miss out on a number as high as 50-1 for a Top 20 golfer on a course he obviously loves. Get this number while you can!
Keita Nakajima (+11000, Top 10 +900)
After dominating the Asian Tour, Keita Nakajima earned a chance to earn his PGA Tour Card at the Final Q-School event. He finished 45th, 8 strokes away from earning his card. However, he earned a spot on the DPWT for 2024. Even with the bump in competition level, Nakajima has not slowed down in the slightest. He finished T4 in his first DPWT event and grabbed his first win at The Hero Indian Open just 2 months later.
Nakajima comes into The Genesis Scottish Open with fantastic form, with his last 5 results being T20 – 6th – T11 – MC (PGA Championship) – Win. Although he has never played at The Renaissance Club, his game fits the course very well. Nakajima is above average in Driving Distance, and his Approach play has been solid since joining the DPWT. His putting has shown to be hit or miss, but in his best finishes, it has really shined. The links-style will help his game as well because the scrambling around the green has been his biggest issue. Nakajima will be able to rely on his putter, and should he have one of his hot weeks, look out.
It will take an incredible week all around for Keita Nakajima to win The Genesis Scottish Open. He’s played in all 4 majors as just a 24-year-old, so he’s no stranger to this difficult field. He missed every major cut, but no course has matched his game as well as The Renaissance Club does, and the added confidence from the past few months will help tremendously. Don’t hold out too much hope for a win, but the value of 9-1 on his Top 10 odds cannot be overlooked. He’s been achieving this feat all year on the DPWT, and Keita is not going to stop now!