Back again with another mock draft, this time with some breathing room from the bookend spot. I’ll be picking with the 9th pick to start. This is by far my preferred spot over the 10th overall pick, simply because I can base my first of two close picks on what my opponent picking after me needs. Always be aware of your opponents’ roster when making your selection to avoid having someone you like stolen out from under you. If they go WR-heavy early on, you can afford to save a pick on that WR you like for when the quick turn comes back to you.
As I mentioned last week I’m here to try and give you a look at a different kind of team you can build while working through your draft. So if I pass on someone I raved about last week, don’t think I no longer like that player or am being disingenuous. I’m simply showing the possibilities that can play out if various paths are taken. Think of this like a mock draft multiverse.
Picking Ninth Overall in Standard Leagues
This mock simulates a 10-team, 1 quarterback, Points Per Reception league. The hypothetical roster consists of 2 wide receivers, 2 running backs, 1 tight end, and 1 Flex position along with seven bench slots. The kicker and D/ST picks will be excluded. I’ll make my way back through the mock draft in reverse order over the coming weeks.
ROUND ONE
1.01- Christian McCaffrey SF – RB
1.02- CeeDee Lamb DAL – WR
1.03- Tyreek Hill MIA – WR
1.04- Ja’Marr Chase CIN – WR
1.05- Breece Hall NYJ – RB
1.06- Justin Jefferson MIN – WR
1.07- Bijan Robinson ATL – RB
1.08- Amon-Ra St. Brown DET – WR
1.09- Saquon Barkley PHI – RB
1.10- Puka Nacua LAR – WR
MY PICK: Saquon Barkley
This season is going to be the ultimate chance for Saquon Barkley to show the world what he’s capable of. He goes from the Giants who at times were starting an offensive line comprised of 60% practice squad players to one of if not THE elite line in football, the Eagles. If injury history wasn’t working against Saquon there would be a legitimate conversation for Barkley going 1.01. Instead he falls to 1.09 in this mock draft. Saquon has been an RB1 with five New York City Subway turnstiles blocking for him throughout his career. If he truly is a special player like he showed he could be out of college he will not just be a key part but the feature piece of this Eagles offense that could’ve desperately used more pizazz down the stretch last year.
Even with talented pass catchers like A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, the talent drop-off after them is steep. There’s a big opportunity for Saquon to carve himself out a significant portion of targets for PPR leagues but here in standard that may not matter. Still, his injury history, and the severity of those injuries cannot be ignored. I’d keep an eye on the Kenneth Gainwell/Will Shipley preseason and training camp work to see who could be Saquon’s backup and stash him.
ROUND TWO
2.01- A.J. Brown PHI – WR
2.02- Garrett Wilson NYJ – WR
2.03- Jonathan Taylor IND – RB
2.04- Jahmyr Gibbs DET – RB
2.05- Derrick Henry BAL – RB
2.06- Kyren Williams LAR – RB
2.07- Brandon Aiyuk SF – WR
2.08- Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI – WR
2.09- Mike Evans TB – WR
2.10- De’Von Achane MIA – RB
MY PICK: Garrett Wilson
This one was a painful selection for many fantasy football players a year ago, for reasons entirely out of Garrett Wilson’s control. If you stepped into the kitchen to heat up some food during Aaron Rodgers’ Jets debut you missed his entire Jets career up to this point. It dashed what were dreams of Wilson finishing as WR1, with some going as far as to take him in the first round. Still, I’m back loving him again heading into 2024, no matter the format. Mock draft or a real fantasy football draft.
In another season with a poor offensive line and worse QB play, Wilson ended with 95 receptions for over 1,000 yards. He has proven he is an elite NFL talent, he just needs a decent QB to make the most of him. IF Aaron Rodgers can keep himself from coming off the field, either due to injury, vice presidential campaign or vacation, Wilson’s ceiling is back to what it was this time a year ago. The top overall WR in fantasy football. Coming away with him and Saquon in the top two rounds is risky but the payoff is a chance at ending the year with the top two players in fantasy football.
ROUND THREE
3.01- Chris Olave NO – WR
3.02- Isiah Pacheco KC – RB
3.03- Travis Etienne Jr. JAC – RB
3.04- Josh Allen BUF – QB
3.05- Deebo Samuel Sr. SF – WR
3.06- Davante Adams LV – WR
3.07- Sam LaPorta DET – TE
3.08- Jalen Hurts PHI – QB
3.09- Joe Mixon HOU – RB
3.10- James Cook BUF – RB
MY PICK: Joe Mixon
Fantasy football season isn’t truly back until we’re all overlooking the value Joe Mixon carries with him. Many wrote him off last season, only for him to as RB6 in overall points. Mixon leaving the Bengals would normally result in a drop in value in most situations. This isn’t most situations.
Mixon is going to an arguably more talented offense in Houston than he was playing in while in Cincinnati. Nobody in Houston’s offense comes close to JaMarr Chase. But I’d argue their top 3 of Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell is on par with Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Stroud and Burrow are also adjacent to one another. So who’s to say Mixon can’t be more productive than Devin Singletary, who without Diggs finished with nearly 1,100 yards of total offense? Mixon is a great value in late round 3, early round 4.
ROUND FOUR
4.01- Josh Jacobs GB – RB
4.02- DK Metcalf SEA – WR
4.03- Travis Kelce KC – TE
4.04- Nico Collins HOU – WR
4.05- Rachaad White TB – RB
4.06- Mark Andrews BAL – TE
4.07- Kenneth Walker III SEA – RB
4.08- Aaron Jones MIN – RB
4.09- Patrick Mahomes II KC – QB
4.10- Jaylen Waddle MIA – WR
MY PICK: DK Metcalf
DK Metcalf might be the penultimate ‘WR who benefits from standard formats.’ This was most apparent last season. He had the second-lowest total targets of his career with 119. Yet he had his second-highest yardage total with 1,114. He also bounced back with eight touchdowns. Still not near his double-digit seasons, but a slight improvement from his six the year prior.
He has always been a big play, big target but never much of a possession WR. This, a downside for PPR leagues, is a nonfactor in standard fantasy football leagues. Here, in round four is a solid place to take him. I have now locked up my top two RBs and WRs. I can continue to build out the rest of my roster with the flexibility to take whomever I please.
ROUND FIVE
5.01- David Montgomery DET – RB
5.02- Alvin Kamara NO – RB
5.03- Najee Harris PIT – RB
5.04- James Conner ARI – RB
5.05- Drake London ATL – WR
5.06- Rhamondre Stevenson NE – RB
5.07- Michael Pittman IND – WR
5.08- Stefon Diggs HOU – WR
5.09- Lamar Jackson BAL – QB
5.10- Zamir White LV – RB
MY PICK: Lamar Jackson
Again, I firmly believe this is the sweet spot for a QB and with the reigning MVP on the board, I couldn’t wait another two picks. Lamar Jackson will always carry an injury risk with him. He plays aggressively in the run game, willing to take hits for an extra yard. He also has a history of injuries but seldom misses extended time. Still, another year in the Todd Monken system, with Zay Flowers now developing alongside him another season and Derrick Henry in the backfield. All that combined lends itself to thinking Lamar could improve off his MVP season. An interesting thought considering most MVPs don’t vastly improve their stat line.
At this point in the mock draft, who the team picking between my picks has is a consideration. With no QBs on their roster, there is a strong chance he could take Lamar from me before I pick again. Lamar’s rushing upside separates him from the next tier of QBs. I also didn’t see any player on the board who I would have been upset to lose more than I would of if I missed Lamar.
ROUND SIX
6.01- Dak Prescott DAL – QB
6.02- D’Andre Swift CHI – RB
6.03- Zack Moss CIN – RB
6.04- DJ Moore CHI – WR
6.05- Anthony Richardson IND – QB
6.06- Javonte Williams DEN – RB
6.07- Raheem Mostert MIA – RB
6.08- C.J. Stroud HOU – QB
6.09- Tony Pollard TEN – RB
6.10- George Kittle SF – TE
MY PICK: D’Andre Swift
D’Andre Swift has always felt like he has never lived up to his abilities. He has them, we’ve all seen it on display. So why has Swift never played like a top 5 RB? There’s a reason he’s available this late in the mock draft. Some of it comes down to opportunity. Swift had plenty last season. A far and away career-high 229 attempts. However he only barely crossed the thousand yards rushing mark and was the least involved in the passing attack he’s ever been. Some of that can be attributed to the Eagles’ offense being more vanilla than vanilla.
Will the Bears’ offense open things up for him? It should be far improved with Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen now in the mix. However, the Bears’ offensive line pales in comparison to the Eagles’ line. I still think Swift can find a nice middle ground here. More featured than he was in Philadelphia and perhaps better utilized. Particularly in the passing game. He makes for a great flex pick in round six as the RB board will thin out quickly.
ROUND SEVEN
7.01- Kyler Murray ARI – QB
7.02- Nick Chubb CLE – RB
7.03- Cooper Kupp LAR – WR
7.04- Brian Robinson Jr. WAS – RB
7.05- Joe Burrow CIN – QB
7.06- Devin Singletary NYG – RB
7.07- Jordan Love GB – QB
7.08- Jonathon Brooks CAR – RB
7.09- Trey McBride ARI – TE
7.10- George Pickens PIT – WR
MY PICK: Trey McBride
Everyone is all over the Trey McBride hype train. Why not? His second half of the season was terrific. However, let’s take a step back on his expectations for 2024. McBride is not the top dog in Arizona. That title belongs to Marvin Harrison Jr. Don’t believe me, go watch his highlights.
That said, Trey McBride is a steal here in this mock draft, depending on how you weigh his second-half breakout. You could argue he should be up in the Kelce, Andrews LaPorta tier. You can make the case that someone more proven like Kittle or with a higher upside like Pitts deserves to be taken ahead of him. I think the consensus will agree that between McBride’s floor and upside, he is a fringe top 5 TE at worst.
ROUND EIGHT
8.01- DeVonta Smith PHI – WR
8.02- Tee Higgins CIN – WR
8.03- Amari Cooper CLE – WR
8.04- Austin Ekeler WAS – RB
8.05- Tank Dell HOU – WR
8.06- Diontae Johnson CAR – WR
8.07- Gus Edwards LAC – RB
8.08- Jaylen Warren PIT – RB
8.09- Zay Flowers BAL – WR
8.10- Christian Kirk JAC – WR
MY PICK: Tee Higgins
Tee Higgins joins my ranks as another ‘shoot for the moon,’ selection. All the pieces are here for him to have a big year. Burrow is back, Higgins is healthy and playing for a new contract. One which could pay him above $30 million a year if he lives up to his potential. However, JaMarr Chase may forever stand in his way of putting up the stats justifying that type of contract. That may not matter to whomever wins his eventual bidding war, but to us drafting him in fantasy football stats is the only thing that matters. Side note, that doesn’t mean you can tweet at or harass Higgins or anyone if they have a bad game. Don’t be that guy.
Higgins has always seemed to have a cap on his production. He has never eclipsed more than 1,100 yards, 75 catches or eight touchdowns in any season. Maybe Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon leaving opens up the slightest bit of touches for Higgins to finally explode onto the WR1 tier. If not, drafting him in round eight is a good sweet spot. He will allow you to stream him based on that week’s matchup.
ROUND NINE
9.01- Hollywood Brown KC – WR
9.02- Chris Godwin TB – WR
9.03- Malik Nabers NYG – WR
9.04- Jayden Reed GB – WR
9.05- Christian Watson GB – WR
9.06- Calvin Ridley TEN – WR
9.07- Keenan Allen CHI – WR
9.08- Tyjae Spears TEN – RB
9.09- Ezekiel Elliott DAL – RB
9.10- DeAndre Hopkins TEN – WR
My Pick: Ezekiel Elliott
I’ll come out and say it now. Ezekiel Elliott is not receiving enough love going into 2024. If he’s available as late as he is in this mock draft I’ll likely take him in my real draft. Yes, he had a lackluster 2023 in New England, but how could anybody? He averaged 3.5 ypc but even Rhamondre Stevenson averaged only 4.0. Going back to Dallas it will be a pass-first team but Elliott might be more set up for success this year than his last season as a Cowboy.
Elliott slowly began splitting carries with Tony Pollard as time passed, eventually becoming a 50/50 split. Now Pollard is gone, and the backfield around Elliott is less appealing than before. He might see a larger share of touches in 2024 than he did in 2022. He showed last year in New England he can still be a factor in the passing game, leading the team in receptions with 51. Considering this is round nine, you can do a lot worse than someone like Elliott who has a head start on leading his backfield in touches.
ROUND 10
10.01- Brandin Cooks DAL – WR
10.02- Terry McLaurin WAS – WR
10.03- Trey Benson ARI – RB
10.04- Chase Brown CIN – RB
10.05- Jerome Ford CLE – RB
10.06- Zach Charbonnet SEA – RB
10.07- Rashee Rice KC – WR
10.08- Blake Corum LAR – RB
10.09- Courtland Sutton DEN – WR
10.10- Chuba Hubbard CAR – RB
MY PICK: Terry McLaurin
Yet another player who I believe is getting written off too soon. Terry McLaurin has been a model of consistency throughout his career. Since 2020, he has had at least 120 targets, 77 catches, and 1,000 yards each season. However, the touchdowns haven’t been there, which has been the only thing holding back his value. When you’re picking this late, and you can land a guy who can cross 1,000 yards rushing or receiving you have a steal and one of the best values in this mock draft. If McLaurin is available this late in your draft take him and don’t think twice.
STARTING LINEUP
QB – Lamar Jackson
RB – Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon
WR – Garrett Wilson, DK Metcalf
TE – Trey McBride
FLEX – D’Andre Swift
Bench: Tee Higgins, Ezekiel Elliott, Terry McLaurin, Brian Thomas Jr. (11.09), Kyle Pitts (12.02) Caleb Williams (13.09), Rashid Shaheed (14.02)
CONCLUSION
A far riskier mock draft than last week’s, but I think it’s safe enough to overcome the worst-case scenario. Running backs like Barkley and Mixon have a high enough floor and some of the best OLs which should allow me to play them no matter the matchup. Wilson just needs Rodgers to stay healthy and focused on football while Metcalf is a great player for standard fantasy football leagues. Trey McBride might be one of the best value picks of this mock draft. Finally Swift, Higgins, Elliott, and McLaurin give me a ton of options at the FLEX spot to play the matchup game. There is risk, particularly to injury for guys like Jackson and Barkley, but the depth behind them makes me feel more assured after the pieces fall together.
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