It’s an awkward week for Pitching Streamers. Starting on Monday, all teams will get at least four days off for the All-Star Break. This allows (real-life) managers to reset their pitching rotations, or give hurlers an extra few days of rest, or line them up for matchups they find favorable. That sure makes it tough for fantasy managers to predict who will start in just a three-day Week 17. Your guess is pretty much as good as mine. Most teams set their rotation based on pecking order, but it doesn’t always work that way.
So the below list of pitching streamers are not just the best targets to help your team, but the ones which also appear most likely to actually make one of their team’s first three starts after the Break. If you’re lucky enough to play in a daily-roster league, you’ll be able to collect a lot more information before the 2nd half actually starts. For everyone else, good luck, have a scroll, and please remember to stream responsibly.
Pitching Streamers Available in Some Leagues (About 50% to 65% Rostered)
Brandon Pfaadt SP DBacks
Last start: Thursday, July 11th vs. Braves – 6IP W 0ER 3H 0BB 4K
Start next week (tentative): Weekend @ Cubs
Brandon Pfaadt is on the high end of this roster range, so it isn’t super likely he’s available in your league. Especially so in his better format, a points league. But aside from racking up the innings (at least six in 12 of his last 14 starts), the 25-year-old is a viable pitching streamer next week even in categories.
This is based on a recent hot streak (2.57/1.20 WHIP over six starts), an xERA even better than the actual thing (3.38 xERA vs. 3.97 ERA), and his opponent. The Cubs are ranked 22nd in wOBA over the last month. And they only rank 24th in home runs. Given Pfaadt’s occasional trouble with the long ball (1.11 HR/9), this decreases the likelihood of a blow-up, which is a very good thing if you’re trying to protect ratios in a short week.
Shane Baz SP Rays
Last start: Thursday, July 11th vs. Yankees – 4.1IP 3ER 6H 1BB 5K
Start next week (tentative): Weekend @ Yankees
OK, fine, Shane Baz hasn’t exactly been lighting it up in his return from Tommy John surgery. His 23 walks in 39.1 minor league/rehab innings led to a 4.12 ERA/1.59 WHIP. And he wasn’t sharp in his last start, yielding two home runs and only lasting 4.1 innings against the Yankees. And sure, I’ll even note that it’s probably a 50/50 shot whether he’ll even start one of Tampa Bay’s three games next week.
So this is more of a long-term, high-upside, sort of streaming option. If he’s still available in your league, be glad he hasn’t quite found the feel for his curveball yet (just 12.5% whiff rate so far). If and when he does, we can reasonably hope for a return to the 12+ K/9 numbers we saw in his last full season. That alone is at least worth a roster spot.
Pitching Streamers Available in Most Leagues (About 30% to 50% Rostered)
Jameson Taillon SP Cubs
Last start: Tuesday, July 9th @ Orioles – 6IP W 2ER 4H 1BB 7K
Next start: Sunday, July 14th @ Cardinals
Start next week (tentative): Weekend vs. DBacks
Not thinking many people had Jameson Taillon’s ERA being under three after the All-Star Break on their Bingo cards. But assuming the 32-year-old holds up against the Cardinals on Sunday (ranked 19th in wOBA), he’ll wrap up a 1st half that’s included nine Quality Starts (out of 15), an elite walk rate (5.0% is ranked 91st percentile), and an ERA near his current 2.99 mark.
The righty has been particularly sharp over his last six outings, during which he’s slashed a 2.37 ERA/0.89 WHIP/8.76 K/9. You might be frightened by next week’s matchup. The DBacks are ranked 11th in wOBA, but 6th over the last month. Based on his recent matchups, though (Orioles are 2nd in wOBA, Phillies 3rd, Brewers 8th, Mets 9th), I think this pitching streamer can handle the heavyweights.
Yusei Kikuchi SP Blue Jays
Last start: Tuesday, July 9th @ Giants – 7.1IP 2ER 6H 0BB 13K
Next start: Sunday, July 14th @ DBacks
Start next week (tentative): Weekend vs. Tigers
It looks like Yusei Kikuchi’s rough patch is over. After pitching to a ghastly 6.50 ERA/1.61 WHIP over his previous eight starts, the lefty shined on Tuesday. Aside from allowing just two earned runs over 7.1 innings in San Francisco, he set a career-high 13 strikeouts! That included 19 swinging strikes, 10 via the fastball.
If you hadn’t dropped him during the rough patch, good for you. But if one of your league-mates did, this certainly opens up an opportunity. Expected stats (xERA at 3.95) and recent history (3.86 ERA over 33 starts last season) suggest the last eight starts are the aberration. Also, the 33-year-old is likely to draw a start against the Tigers next week. They rank 25th in wOBA. Seems like the perfect combo for a pitching streamer.
Pitching Streamers Widely Available (About 30% Rostered or Fewer)
Dean Kremer SP Orioles
Last start: Tuesday, July 9th vs. Cubs – 4IP L 5ER (7R) 7H 3BB 3K
Next start: Sunday, July 14th vs. Yankees
Start next week (tentative): Weekend @ Rangers
If you streamed Dean Kremer this week, you’re probably pretty darn upset. Five earned runs over four innings tends to blow up one’s week. But under the hood, the start doesn’t look as horrible. Just four of the 17 balls put in play against him were hit hard (23.5%). That’s way better than his already-good overall hard-hit rate of 37.3%.
So maybe we can say the 28-year-old got unlucky, is still just a little rusty after a long stay on the IL, and didn’t have the feel for his splitter which worked so well for him in the previous start (generating seven swinging strikes). I don’t mind gambling that the pitch will come back for him against the middling Rangers (ranked 16th in wOBA). For a deep league, it feels like there’s a lot of upside here.
Plus, added bonus, you’ll get a start this weekend to see if the righty can shake that rust off entirely. And even though it would be a risky endeavor to start him in a daily-roster league for that one, the Yankees do rank 24th in wOBA over the last month. So you’re not crazy if you go for it.
Jose Quintana SP Mets
Last start: Tuesday, July 9th vs. Nationals – 7IP W 0ER 1H 1BB 5K
Next start: Sunday, July 14th vs. Rockies
Start next week (tentative): Weekend @ Marlins
Can’t say I’m excited about Jose Quintana’s long-term value. Despite a recent hot streak (a five-start stretch with a 0.89 ERA/0.89WHIP/8.0 K/9 rate), the lefty still has a rather swollen xERA of 5.14 (vs. 3.91 over 96.2 innings). That’s based on poor batted-ball metrics (hard-hit rate in particular which is ranked in the 13th percentile) and lack of swing-and-miss stuff (whiff rate ranked 13th percentile, K rate 17th).
But in the near term, the value just seems too juicy to pass up on in any sort of deep league. His next two likely matchups couldn’t be better. The Rockies have just a .638 OPS on the road, while the Marlins are now ranked last in wOBA. Moreover, the latter game, though tentative, seems more likely to happen than most on this list based on the veteran’s pecking order in the rotation. He should make one of the team’s first three starts after the All-Star Break. In a deep league, this seems worth the gamble.