In 2020 I wrote an article for Fantrax detailing wide receiver production in College Fantasy Football, and which kind of programs tend to generate starting CFF wide receiver production. I wanted to give an updated look at how the upper tiers of the WR position in CFF have unfolded since the pandemic-stricken 2020 campaign.
I feel like it’s a widely accepted opinion that CFF/C2C Wide Receiver play experiences the widest variance from year to year, with swarms of players graduating and OCs constantly shuttling between different programs. The point of this exercise is to give budding CFF/C2C/Dynasty enthusiasts a glimpse into one of the many methods of player evaluation that I have deployed over my 24 years obsessing over the College Fantasy Football-adjacent realm. In an effort to try and identify how to properly allocate college WR draft capital each year, here is a broad historical overview and list of data points that you should consider when drafting wide receivers in your upcoming 2024 CFF/C2C Drafts:
Historical Overview
2018
- WRs with 100+ Targets = 56 (24 P5/27 G5)
- WRs with 1,000+ Yards = 37 (20 P5/17 G5)
- WRs with 10 TDs in 2021 = 25
- WRs w/ 1,000+ Yards + 10 TDs = 16
- WRs w/1,000+ Yards + 10 TDs that didn’t have 100 Targets = 3 (Arcega-Whiteside/Anthony Johnson/CeeDee)
- Lowest amount of targets w/1,000 yards + 10 TDs = CeeDee Lamb – 88 (Burks 89)
- Lowest Amount of Receptions w/1,000 Yards = Justyn Ross – 46 (2 Under 60 – A. Johnson)
2019
- WRs with 100+ Targets = 58 (24 P5/27 G5)
- WRs with 1,000+ Yards = 39 (20 P5/17 G5)
- WRs with 10 TDs = 25
- WRs w/ 1,000+ Yards + 10 TDs = 23
- WRs w/1,000+ Yards + 10 TDs that didn’t have 100 Targets = 7 (CeeDee Lamb/DeVonta Smith/Tee Higgins/Dyami Brown/Dazz Newsome/Rashod Bateman/Sage Surratt)
- Lowest amount of targets w/1,000 yards + 10 TDs = Tee Higgins – 87 (Lamb/Smith – 88)
- Lowest Amount of Receptions w/1,000 Yards = Dyami Brown – 51 (Higgins – 59) (3 Under 60)
2021
- WRs with 100+ Targets = 51 (24 P5/27 G5)
- WRs with 1,000+ Yards = 37 (20 P5/17 G5)
- WRs with 10 TDs in 2021 = 27
- WRs w/ 1,000+ Yards + 10 TDs = 17
- WRs w/1,000+ Yards + 10 TDs that didn’t have 100 Targets = 2 (Burks/Tillman)
- Lowest amount of targets w/1,000 yards + 10 TDs = Cedric Tillman – 86 (Burks 88)
- Lowest Amount of Receptions w/1,000 Yards = Tyrese Chambers – 46 (Dontayvion Wicks – 57/Jayden Reed 59)
2022
- WRs with 100+ Targets = 53 (20 P5/33 G5)
- WRs with 100+ Targets during Regular Season = 41 | 63 WRs with 90+ Targets
- WRs with 1,000+ Yards = 31 (17 P5/14 G5)
- WRs with 10 TDs in 2021 = 18
- WRs w/ 1,000+ Yards + 10 TDs = 13
- WRs w/1,000+ Yards + 10 TDs that didn’t have 100 Targets = 2 (Hyatt/C.J. Johnson ECU – 67-93/1,016/10)
- Lowest amount of targets w/1,000 yards + 10 TDs = 87 (Mims) (Hyatt #2 w/89)
- Lowest Amount of Receptions w/1,000 Yards = 54 (Mims) (#2 = 3 with 60 – K. Thornton/J. Wayne/QJ)
2023
- WRs with 100+ Targets = 42 (20 P5/22 G5) (68 with 90+ | 2022: 80 with 90+)
- WRs with 100+ Targets during Regular Season = 33 (16 P5/17 G5) | 61 WRs with 90+ Targets
- WRs with 1,000+ Yards = 35 (18 P5/17 G5)
- WRs with 10 TDs in 2023 = 25 (2022 = 13)
- WRs w/ 1,000+ Yards + 10 TDs = 11
- WRs w/1,000+ Yards + 10 TDs that didn’t have 100 Targets = 3 (CJ Daniels, Brian Thomas, Jalen Royals)
- Lowest amount of targets w/1,000 yards + 10 TDs = 82 (CJ Daniels) (B. Thomas #2 w/87)
- Lowest Amount of Receptions w/1,000 Yards = 47 – Kelly Akharaiyi, UTEP
Data Points of Interest:
- In 2023 the Top-15 CFF point scorers all accrued 1,000 yards or more (2022 = 22), as the millennium mark was once again a harbinger of CFF success through the air.
- Since 2018 just 15 receivers have cleared the 1,000-yard barrier while catching less than 60 passes.
- Of those 15, sub-60 target/1,000-yard seasons, 6 of them occurred in 2023 (Tahj Washington, Javon Baker, Ja’Mori Maclin, CJ Daniels, Reggie Brown, Kelly Akharaiyi)
- Of the 155 total 1,000-yard WRs with more than 60 receptions since 2018, only 26 (16.7%) did not reach the 100 target threshold.
- Of those 26, 1,000-yard/60 reception/sub-100 target seasons, 10 of them occurred in 2023 (38.5%).
- The lowest amount of receptions for any 100-target WR in 2023 was 57
- 12 of the top-20 ADP WRs primarily line up in the slot, as the “target volume safety” archetype provides a bankability in PPR formats that appeals to conservative CFF drafters who crave certainty.
- The only player in the last decade to post back-to-back seasons with 1,000 receiving yards and 10 TDs with less than 100 targets = CeeDee Lamb in 2018 and 2019.
- In 2019, 11 teams produced at least two players who received 100+ Targets
- The 2021 Western Kentucky and Ohio State programs produced three WRs with 100+ Targets, while just three Teams produced 2 WRs with 100+ = Alabama, Eastern Michigan, Wake Forest
- 17-of-18 receivers in 2023 who scored 10+ receiving touchdowns played for teams that averaged 30+ PPG in conference play.
- When you factor in the 48 RBs who rushed for 10+ touchdowns in 2023, it becomes clear just how rare elite wide receiver performance is in CFF. For perspective, in 2021 there were 27 CFF WRs who hit the double-digit TD threshold, which is 50% more than each of the last two seasons where 18 players hit the mark.
- 21 out of 133 FBS programs threw for 280+ YPG last year. This is right in line with the 20 teams to clear 280 passing yards per game in 2021 & 2022.
- Of the 21 teams who threw for 280+ yards last year, 21 of the top 23 passing teams threw 25 touchdowns or more. I expect the two outliers – UAB and Colorado State – will get there in 2024.
- Only one of the top 35 teams in passing yardage failed to throw more than 20 touchdown passes – Oklahoma State (18)
High Target Concentration Passing Offenses
In 2022, Ohio State and WKU were joined by UTSA, Washington, Akron(!), and UCF as teams who fielded two high-volume wideouts each. However, the team that produced the most high-volume wideouts was actually Georgia Southern, with Khaleb Hood (127), Houston transfer Jeremy Singleton (103), and Derwin Burgess Jr. (101) all clearing the century-mark. It should also be noted that WKU WR Daewood Davis (95) was just five targets away from giving WKU back-to-back seasons with three, 100-plus target WRs. Surprisingly, Akron’s Alex Adams (90) was just 10 targets away from giving the Zips a trifecta of target hogs. Arizona – Singer (98), Tulsa – Santana (94), and ECU – CJ Johnson (93) narrowly missed having two WRs in the 100-Target club.
Surprisingly, not a single team in the FBS had three or more 90-plus target wideouts in 2023. Here are the 14 Teams that supported multiple 90+ target wide receivers, with 5 of them producing a pair of 100-target wideouts:
Washington: Rome Odunze (140) and Ja’Lynn Polk (108)
Colorado State: Tory Horton (134) and Dallin Holker (105th)
Oregon: Troy Franklin (114) and Tez Johnson (106)
Virginia: Malik Washington (138) and Malachi Fields (100)
Georgia Southern: Khaleb Hood (133) and Derwin Burgess (109)
Akron – Daniel George (93) and Jasaiah Gathings (95)
Oklahoma State: Brennan Presley (143) and Rashod Owens (99)
Washington State: Lincoln Victor (118) and Josh Kelly (92) | Kyle Williams (85)
Miami: Xavier Restrepo (119) and Jacolby George (90)
Utah State: Terrell Vaughn (122) and Jalen Royals (99)
Hawaii: Pofele Ashlock (121) and Steven McBride (99)
Arizona: Tetairoa McMillan (130) and Jacob Cowing (121)
Texas State: Kole Wilson (99) and Joey Hobert (97) | Ashtyn Hawkins (85)
James Madison: Elijah Sarratt (99) and Reggie Brown (90)
Rule of 35
In order to identify the roster-worthy Dynasty/Deep format wide receivers before they break out, you need to whittle down which teams you are focusing on according to their projected aerial potency, which I quantify with “The Rule of 35.” Factors such as HC/OC coaching changes, QB turnover, and schedule will go a long way toward dictating the efficacy of each program’s passing offense. What is clear to me is you need to focus your WR scouting efforts on teams that throw often and convert drives efficiently.
In 2022, 22 FBS programs were able to average 35+ Points Per Game, while 37 teams threw 35+ Pass Attempts per game. The following 8 programs hit both “Rule of 35” metrics:
- Memphis (35 PPG/35 ATT)
- Houston (36 PPG/38.5 ATT)
- Wake Forest (36 PPG/36 ATT)
- Western Kentucky (36.5 PPG/44.5 ATT)
- UTSA (37 PPG/36 ATT)
- SMU (37 PPG/39.5 ATT)
- Washington (40 PPG/44 ATT)
- USC (41.5 PPG/37 ATT)
Those numbers dropped to 17 teams that averaged 35+ PPG, and 30 who attempted 35+ passes per game. Here are the 6 programs that hit both marks in 2023:
- Washington (36 PPG/38 ATT)
- Memphis (39 PPG/38 ATT)
- Oklahoma (42 PPG/35 ATT)
- USC (42 PPG/35.5 ATT)
- Oregon (44 PPG/37 ATT)
- Arizona (35 PPG/37 ATT)
The three constants on this list are Memphis, USC, and Washington.
USC
It will be interesting to see if USC HC Lincoln Riley can maintain the same level of offensive potency with QB Caleb Williams now in the NFL and the Trojans now facing Big Ten caliber defenses. QB Miller Moss takes over, but the door could be open for UNLV transfer QB Jayden Maiava to earn snaps after Moss struggled with three first-half interceptions in the spring game. WR Zachariah Branch is going off at a very reasonable WR69/165 Overall ADP, with my preferred X-WR Ja’Kobi Lane being selected much later at WR123/340 ADP.
Branch could see a Jordan Addison level of manufactured targets, but there’s also highly-touted WRs Duce Robinson (Rd 21.1 in 16-team P4 only league) and Makai Lemon (No ADP) who form the entrenched 4-man WR rotation. Trojans HC Riley is known for spreading the work around amongst his wideouts, with 72% of the team’s targets split between the outside (38%) and slot (39%).
The “Potent Offense Wide Receiver 3” AKA – POWR3 Theory is firmly in play with Ja’Kobi/Duce/Makai and they’re all basically free in 12-team/30-round standard best ball formats. It should be noted that the only WR Riley has targeted at a clear WR1 rate during his USC tenure was Jordan Addison, but fellow Riley WRs Marvin Mims and CeeDee Lamb were both able to post 1,000-yard seasons despite sub-90 target workloads at Oklahoma.
Washington/Alabama (HC Kalen DeBoer)
Washington orchestrated a magical National Championship Game run last year, but they will almost assuredly fall off this list in 2024 with new HC Jedd Fisch now in town from Arizona and a complete overhaul of the roster underway as the Huskies acclimate to the defense-rich B10.
On the flip side, former Washington HC Kalen DeBoer has taken over an Alabama program that averaged its lowest points per game (34 PPG) since 2009. New HC DeBoer’s Huskies put the ball in the air 44 times in 2022 and 38 times last year. Alabama attempted a seemingly impossible 23 passes per game last season, which ranked 116th nationally despite Alabama averaging a sensational 9.5 yards per pass attempt (4th in FBS). Their 66% standard downs run rate was a borderline service academy-level metric that ranked 10th nationally, targeting every position at a 70th or lower rate except for the inline receiver, which ranked 28th in FBS with a 15% target rate. Unfortunately, the overall pass game usage was so morose that the Bama tight ends were functionally irrelevant for CFF purposes anyway.
Given DeBoer’s clear preference to sling the ball around (38 ATT/game in 2023, 44 ATT in 2022) I am expecting a 50%+ increase in Alabama’s abnormally low rate. Washington transfer WR Germie Bernard dominated the spring game and is being selected as WR23 in the 5th round of CFF Best Ball drafts, while Kendrick Law (WR103/316 ADP) and Kobe Prentice (WR113/343 ADP) are going largely undrafted in 30-round standard formats. All three are likely being under-drafted based on their scant 2023 usage, as there is major upside in identifying Alabama’s WR2 behind Bernard. I favor Law who at 5’11/201 caught 13-of-14 targets with a shallow 2.8 ADOT and somehow managed to break eight tackles while shuttling between the slot (55%) and outside (40%).
Memphis
Memphis is the crown jewel of G5 passing attacks, benefitting from continuity between returning QB Seth Henigan and WRs Roc Taylor (WR21/50 ADP)/Demeer Blankumsee (WR52/133 ADP). Tigers OC Tim Cramsey ranked 101st in standard downs run rate (53%) and 131st in passing downs run rate (80%), which is pass-game mana from CFF heaven. However, the target distribution by alignment is reason to temper expectations from a WR3, as OC Cramsey targeted running backs 21% of the time (10th in FBS) and outside receivers at a 41% clip (36th).
With almost 2/3rds of the team targets accounted for, the slot position only garners 29% of the passing game usage (115th), which is split between Blankumsee and TE Anthony Landphere. In 2022 the inline receiver, which was usually TE Caden Prieskorn, received 14% of the team targets (37th), with the slot usage remaining suppressed at 33% usage (95th). I like Landphere a lot at his current TE25 ADP, going one slot above Stanford-to-Georgia transfer Ben Yurosek, which illustrates just how deep the CFF TE position is this year.
Notable CFF WR Relevant Offenses
Colorado
Colorado is in year two of the Coach Prime Era, who was on a mission to address the glaring protection issues (56 sacks, 125th in sacks per dropback) his son Shedeur experienced last year. He bolstered the depth chart with an impressive crop of transfer OL to go with Five-Star freshman LT Jordan Seaton. While they didn’t hit the 35 PPG threshold (28 PPG LY), the Buffs uncorked 40 passes per game (10th in FBS) and reinforced their receiver depth chart with FAU transfer Lahjontay Wester (WR46/127 ADP), who led NCAA in targets LY w/152, Vandy outside threat Will Sheppard (Rd 14 ADP) to go with four-star freshman Drelon Miller. CU ranked 3rd nationally in standard downs pass rate (58.3%) and 19th in passing downs pass rate (75%), while targeting the slot receiver 44.6% of the time (16th in FBS, Nat Avg = 37.2%) and barely acknowledging inline tight ends with a 5% target rate (121st).
They ripped off a play every 23.5 seconds (14th), while departed RB Dylan Edwards finished with the third-most RB targets in the P4 (50). Which bodes well for Ohio State transfer RB Dallan Hayden’s CFF PPR projection this year. I think Colorado takes another step this year in terms of their passing potency, with WR Travis Hunter (Rd 7 ADP) representing an 8.1 target per game volume through his nine appearances that foreshadow a massive CFF season should he remain healthy. If so, Hunter is expected to shoulder a 100-target workload, and could very well be flanked by a pair of 90+ target receivers in Wester and Sheppard, who are improved versions of Xavier Weaver and Jimmy Horn Jr, though Horn Jr. is still on the team and worth a speculative roster spot in deeper formats. Colorado ranked dead-last in FBS averaging 69 rushing yards per game, which is unlikely to substantially improve despite an infusion of offensive line talent via the transfer portal. Coach Prime will have to lean on his son Shedeur and the CU passing game in order to make up for their porous defense that ranked 124th in allowing 35 PPG last year. I think the Colorado passing game is the most overlooked POWR3 room in CFF, with Hunter and Sheppard ending up stacked on several of my preseason Best Ball teams. Both are superb values where they’re going
LSU
Only two of the 30 FBS teams who averaged 270+ passing yards with under 32 pass attempts per game – LSU and Ole Miss. Thanks to star QB Jayden Daniels, the Tigers’ 10.7 yards per pass attempt ranked #1 in FBS while also finishing top-3 in passing yardage (339 PYPG) and touchdowns with 44. While it’s hard to expect LSU to repeat their gaudy 45 points per game explosion from a year ago (#1 in FBS), veteran starting QB Garrett Nussmeier is an NFL-caliber signal caller and should keep LSU’s offense in the neighborhood of 300 passing yards and 40-PPG once again.
With just 13 programs crossing the 300 passing yards mark last year, there is plenty of ROI to be had if you can bullseye The only thing I’m convinced of regarding the LSU wide receivers is WR Kyren Lacy (WR20/47 ADP) has a starting spot sewn up. Alongside him are four viable contenders for two starting spots – Zavion Thomas (WR58/153), CJ Daniels (WR80/227 ADP), Chris Hilton Jr. (ADP = 328 in 16-Team P4 Only) and Aaron Anderson (No ADP).
Lacy is the clear preference of the CFF community at a sky-high WR20 price tag after Lacy started LSU’s last eight games while averaging 19.3 YPC, but how safe of an investment is he at that price? Of his 462 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in the regular season, 273 yards and four touchdowns came in three games against Grambling (3-of-3 for 61 yds, TD), Georgia State (5-for-5, 101 yards, 2 TDs) and Auburn (4-of-5 for 111 yards, TD). He’s a fifth-year receiver who transferred from Louisiana after the 2021 season when he caught 46% of his targets with a 1.41 yards per route average. That improved slightly to 1.69 Y/RR (1.38 Y/RR in 2022) with a strong 37% broken tackle rate as a seasoned fourth-year player last season. Entering his fifth year I see Lacy as a serviceable high-floor option whose value is buttressed by LSU’s potent offense, but lacking the premium athletic talent of departed first-rounders Nabers and Thomas.
Having an unproven nominal WR1 like Lacy opens the door for a major challenge, and Mississippi State transfer Zavion Thomas fits the bill. I’ve mentioned him multiple times on the CFF All Access show, as Thomas is an electric kick returner (33.7 yards per return, 1 TD in 6 attempts) who excelled when given the opportunity to shine on Mississippi State’s rudderless passing offense that averaged 6.1 yards per attempt (115th) and a 36% passing success rate (109th), with just 13% of their completions going for more than 20 yards (108th).
While LSU averaged under 32 attempts per game last year, QB Jayden Daniels did a significant amount of damage on the ground, leading the nation with 55 scrambles. With Nussmeier now under center, the majority of that scramble yardage is going to be converted into pass attempts which could push LSU into 35/35 range and help to support two or even possibly three wideouts in deeper formats. Thomas logged 78% of his snaps out wide while securing 5-of-9 contested targets with a scorching 30% broken tackle rate. His game is so well rounded that Thomas earned 92nd percentile PFF receiving grades at all three levels down the field in addition to being a game-changing return man. I’m all over Zavion Thomas and have rarely seen him go before round 20 in industry expert best ball leagues. I’ve got him rostered in several places as a key sleeper in both CFF and C2C formats where Zavion has been outrageously overlooked in the early C2C supplemental drafts I’ve seen.
Here are a few other teams I think could approach 35/35 consideration this year:
Kansas
New OC Jeff Grimes unleashed 37 passes per game at Baylor last year (15th in FBS), while Kansas averaged just a shade under 35 PPG despite throwing just 24 passes per game (124th) under the leadership of departed QB Jason Bean and OC Andy Kotelnicki. With talented QB Jalon Daniels hopefully back to full health following a back ailment that cut his 2023 season short, and a very manageable schedule that features Lindenwood, @Illinois, and UNLV, Kansas could rack up a bevy of points and passes this year.
The Jayhawks return all three starting wideouts and form an unchallenged depth chart led by Lawrence Arnold, who caught 44 passes for 782 yards and six touchdowns despite a paltry 55 targets, which was the fewest targets of any of the 106 FBS wideouts who eclipsed 700 receiving yards last year. It’s staggering to think what he could do with even 80 targets in OC Grimes’ system, and he’s practically free going off the board at WR143/389 ADP. That’s not to discount fellow starters Luke Grimm (Rd 23.4 in P4 only) and Quentin Skinner (Rd 24.1 in P4 only), who each averaged over 17 YPC in 2023 despite limited targets. Fade Kansas’ WR room at your own peril in Deep/Dynasty formats.
Georgia Southern
True to form, Georgia Southern led the nation by attempting 44.5 passes per game but was hampered by former QB Davis Brin’s miscues as the Eagles also led the country with 20 interceptions thrown. GaSo threw 80% of the time on passing downs (2nd in FBS) and 57.5% on standard downs (4th) and did so quite effectively with a 44% success rate (37th). HC Clay Helton maintained coaching staff continuity with former Arkansas State QB Ryan Aplin sliding up from pass game coordinator to full-time OC, so we can expect another torrid pace to their offense that ranked 8th with 74 plays per game last year. The drawback is Georgia Southern’s in ability to make plays downfield, finishing 123rd in passing explosiveness and 115th in completions of 20+ yards (12.5%).
2023 backup sophomore QB JC French appears to have an early edge to replace Brin, with WR Derwin Burgess (WR25/58 ADP) leading the way to replace graduated WR Khaleb Hood’s 101 receptions on 133 targets (7th in FBS) from 2023. However, Burgess’ 11% drop rate and relatively uninspiring 4.1 YAC and 1.43 yards per route averages, and GaSo’s ultra pass-heavy scheme present an opportunity for another strong WR2 to emerge. Last year’s WR3 Dalen Cobb (WR98/288 ADP) ran 57% of his snaps from the slot while averaging a stellar 7.3 YAC with 2.26 yards per route and is set to replace Hood as the primary slot weapon. They also bring in former Arizona State/Oklahoma four-star WR LB Bunkley-Shelton (Rd 15.4 in G5 only) who could draw a WR2 workload similar to Jeremy Singleton’s 103 targets in 2022. I think Cobb is one of the best wide receiver values in CFF at his current WR98 ADP.
Colorado State
The combination of HC Jay Norvell and Air Raid legacy QB Matt Mumme is set to blow the doors off MWC defenses in Year 3 of their relocation from Nevada to CSU. Last year the Rams threw 42 passes per game (5th in FBS) and averaged 306 passing yards per game (9th). Those were major leaps in production from their 2022 Year 1 reset season, doubling their scoring output from 13 PPG in 2022 to 26 PPG. With CSU ripping off plays at the 10th fastest pace in the country and retaining QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi who HC Norvell boldly stated had been tampered with by Power Four programs, there’s every reason to believe CSU can approach the 4,000 passing yards threshold and support three fantasy relevant receivers as they did last season.
The passing attack is driven by Elite WR1 Tory Horton (WR3), who needs no introduction here and is a CFF first-round caliber talent. Horton aside, CSU loses a pair of 700+ yard contributors in WR Justus Ross-Simmons and 2023 CFF Overall TE1 Dallin Holker, plus WR Louis Brown who had 481 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Dylan Goffney (WR112/331 ADP) is the best in-house WR2 candidate after transferring from SMU in 2023, as he got injured in Week 1 last year and was hobbled for the early part of the year before assuming a starting role. There is a very clear and glaring issue standing in his way though – a ghastly 21.4% drop rate that held Goffney from being fully trusted in 2023. He only dropped one pass in 35 catch opportunities in his previous three seasons, so it’s fair to speculate whether his nagging injuries affected Goffney’s performance. Regardless, the door is wide open for Baylor transfer Armani Winfield and/or Wazzu/Cincinnati transplant Donovan Ollie to wrest control of the WR2 role, and they’re essentially free for ADP purposes. This is a vital situation to monitor when camp opens in August.
UAB
New HC Trent Dilfer wasted little time establishing UAB as a prominent aerial attack, ranking sixth nationally with a 71.7% completion rate with 36.5% of the team’s passes being wide open (7th in FBS), with QB Jacob Zeno completing 90% of those wide open opportunities (35th). Combine those efficiency rates with UAB’s 36 passes per game (24th) and you’ve got a fertile CFF hunting ground in Year 2 of HC Dilfer.
NFL draft pick WR Tehjuan Palmer was WR1 and moved on, leaving 5’11/210 true freshman Amare Thomas (WR54/146 ADP) as the top returnee despite a pedestrian 5.0 ADOT and 8.3 YPC last year with Thomas spending 55% of his snaps in the slot. At the moment it’s anyone’s guess who the WR2 will be with a few receivers such as Brandon Buckhalter, TJ Jones, and redshirt freshman Kameran Shanks (Rd 20.14 in G5 only) who tore up the spring game and has field-tilting speed. None of them have ADPs at the moment but should be closely monitored in fall camp to see who emerges in this evolving offense that averaged 289 passing YPG last year.
USF
HC Alex Golesh took little time elevating USF from a 4-29 record over the previous three years, to 7-6 in his very first season at the helm despite just three returning offensive starters. Even with a sharp increase from 193 passing YPG in 2022 to 269 PYPG last year, there is still room for improvement from dynamic QB Byrum Brown in Year 2 of the Golesh Era. The Bulls ranked 30th in passing explosiveness, but just 82nd in success rate. I think Brown, having more experience in the system, should improve his 79% wide-open completion rate which ranked 122nd nationally despite 28.4% of his attempts being wide-open.
That’s a lot of production left on the table for intriguing Purdue transfer Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen (Rd 17.9 in 16-team G5 only), Minnesota transfer Mike Brown-Stephens (Rd 21.5 in G5) and deep threat Naiem Simmons (Rd 18.1 in G5), who averaged 16.3 YPC but had a troubling 15% drop rate. Lethal slot receiver Sean Atkins is currently going off the board as WR8/25 ADP, but there’s room for another very productive outside wideout from this room despite none of them being prioritized in anything but the deepest of formats.
Fresno State
Fresno State quietly averaged 40 passes per game in 2023, with QB Mikey Keene throwing for 1,205 in the first four games before getting injured and limping his way through the rest of the season after returning. Keene then casually ripped 31-of-40 passes vs. a depleted New Mexico State in the bowl, which could very well be a harbinger of things to come in 2024.
Jalen Moss (WR47/129 ADP) is the safest option of the group while Mac Dalena (Rd 17.14 in G5 only) is the second-leading returnee. I’ve been waiting for WR Josiah Freeman (Rd 19.7 in G5 only) to emerge ever since former QB Jake Haener touted him to me at the 2022 NFL Scouting Combine, and with two of the top three wideouts gone, his opportunity has arrived. FCS transfer WR Chedon James was a Finalist for the Walter Payton Award and is a potential sleeper to monitor closely as the season approaches.
Closing
I tried to highlight more Group of Five programs here since the P4 gets so much attention. Anyone looking for a team-by-team G5 overview, you cannot beat The G5 Hive on YouTube run by @ProbascoLuke and @justice_2318. For the P4, the Cover 3 Podcast Summer School series with Bud Elliot is the gold standard.
As a reminder, when evaluating a new crop of CFF/C2C/Devy sleeper wideouts who could overperform their draft position and provide upward mobility on your Deep/Dynasty league roster, you should focus on programs that you believe can approach both “Rule of 35” benchmarks over the next two years.
I felt compelled to start with WRs since they are often difficult evaluations for CFF in which year-to-year evaluation can often be a frustrating exercise. However, I will also be profiling the production-heavy CFF/C2C/Devy running back position, the always quirky Tight Ends, and of course the conductors of our CFF/C2C orchestra – The Quarterbacks – in the coming weeks. So stay tuned for those pieces as well!
Call To Action
The CFF community is rapidly expanding with the release of the new 2K25 NCAA Football Game and 12-team CFP Playoff this season. We need motivated CFB fans to come together and organize startup CFF leagues with their friends and co-workers. Do your part in expanding the CFF community by starting up a league today at Fantrax.com/PlayCFF