The NASCAR Cup Series delivers a crown jewel race this weekend! For the first time since 2020, the Cup Series will race on the oval at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The road course was a nice experiment. However, it was marred by either high variance incidents or in the case of last year’s road course rules, long green flag runs without stage breaks. Denny Hamlin believes what we saw last weekend at Pocono could translate to this week’s action. And that makes sense for the most part. Both tracks are larger intermediates that require horsepower. The downside is the racing wasn’t particularly great at Pocono. A few drivers from last week’s preview are likely to appear in this week’s edition. There’s a little more to break down for this week’s race. So, let’s review the track, schedule, and drivers for this week’s Brickyard 400 preview.
Indianapolis Motor Speedway hosts the Brickyard 400 for the first time since 2020. It’s a massive complex and even features a few holes of the Brickyard Crossing golf course. It’s a huge 2.5-mile track with four turns and as we’ll hear plenty this week, the best comparisons are Pocono and Michigan. The straights are flat with absolutely no banking and we only have 9.2 degrees of banking in the turns. If you were strong last week, that’s a good sign ahead of this weekend. It’s a beautiful track and complex, there’s no doubt about it. However, my one complaint is pit road can be disastrous for stock cars. It’s certainly one of the more narrow pit roads on the schedule and things can be quite contentious with multiple cars making contact.
I also think it’s worth mentioning the scheduling for this weekend. This is the first time the NextGen car has been run on the oval at Indianapolis. The Cup Series will practice at 2:30 pm ET on Friday. That’s great because they’ll be racing at the same time on Sunday, and they’ll qualify around 1:00 pm ET on Saturday. For all the flaws and complaints we can make about NASCAR and their television scheduling, they’re trying to accommodate the drivers this week. Matching the track conditions each day was a smart move on NASCAR’s part.
Brickyard 400 Preview: The Top 10
Denny Hamlin (#11 Toyota)
We led off last week’s preview with Hamlin so we’ll go back to the well for the Brickyard 400 preview. Hamlin didn’t win last week, but he still has won 20% of his Cup Series races at Pocono. He finished as the runner-up last week but led 31 laps with 17 fastest laps. It also doesn’t hurt that he posted a 131.4 driver rating. Had Hamlin re-started P2 in stage three, he may have been in better position to pass Ryan Blaney. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be. But this is still a track type Hamlin drives well at. He’s finished third in both NextGen races at Michigan. And while he never won Indy in the past, he’s managed to get to the front and lead laps. Wash, rinse, and repeat. We once again kick things off with Hamlin.
Ryan Blaney (#12 Ford)
Yes, he got the win last week at Pocono. That’s a good sign heading into a comparable track. But be mindful, that may boost his rostership numbers. Don’t hammer him into all your lineups and expect the exact same result. We should know better. But Indy is important for Team Penske. Roger Penske owns Indianapolis Motor Speedway so this is a bit of a “home track” narrative for Blaney and Co. Blaney has now won at Pocono twice in his career and he won at Michigan back in 2021. It was certainly a slow start for the Fords and Team Penske. But Team Penske now has four wins since the start of June and they have momentum heading to the Brickyard.
Martin Truex Jr. (#19 Toyota)
Truex just couldn’t quite find his way to the front at the end of the race on Sunday. The car was certainly competitive and fast. He did lead 14 laps and had five fastest laps with a 108.7 driver rating. Overall, he looked like he had the best car in practice and qualifying so I’m hoping they don’t make too many adjustments ahead of this race. This is also the same driver that won the first two stages at Michigan last year with 47 laps led in a runner-up effort. Indianapolis was never quite his bread and butter when they previously raced on the oval. But in the NextGen era, in a small sample size, he’s performed very well on comparable tracks.
Brickyard 400 Preview: Wouldn’t Bet Against Them
Brad Keselowski (#6 Ford)
Keselowski appeared in last week’s article and he did not disappoint. He started P14 and finished seventh with 14 dominator points on DraftKings. Keselowski did exactly what we thought he would do. Even teammate Chris Buescher started P18, finished 11th, and had 10.15 dominator points. RFK Racing did what we thought they would do at Pocono. So, I’m actually liking both drivers once again heading into Indy. Keselowski won this race way back in 2018 and should score well on this track. Despite the difficult passing nature last week, Keselowski managed to improve his position and even lead laps just fine.
Joey Logano (#22 Ford)
We’re only about halfway through the Brickyard 400 preview and it already seems like we’re setting records for Ford mentions. But Logano is another that just fits the bill. He drives for Penske and understands the importance of winning at this track. Logano’s never won on the oval at Indy. However, he did finish as the runner-up in 2015 and 2019. Moreover, he just had a pretty strong run at Pocono last week. He grabbed a top five finish after starting P10. But I’m also optimistic because Logano has won three times at Michigan in his career, something that must kill Keselowski since he’s from there. But coming off a strong performance at a difficult track to pass, Logano is trendy heading into this weekend.
Alex Bowman (#48 Chevrolet)
Bowman comes in with considerable momentum. He won two weeks ago at Chicago and finished third last week at Pocono. Bowman touted a 96.5 driver rating and finished sixth and seventh in the first two stages. So, it’s not like he got lucky with track position late. He qualified P6 and held his own for most of the day. The track history at Indy’s oval isn’t great for Bowman. In five previous races on this layout, his average finish is 33.4 and he doesn’t have a single top 20 finish. Plugging Bowman in for the Brickyard 400 preview is simply acknowledging the recent form. And if he pops up as an affordable play, then I’ll pay the discount for Hendrick Motorsports equipment.
The Sleepers and Values
Austin Cindric (#2 Ford)
This section of the Brickyard 400 preview is not to be taken as scripture. Last week’s race didn’t provide great insight into who should be good in this tier. Last week, 14 drivers either wrecked or finished multiple laps down. Cindric, to his credit, wasn’t one of them. In fact, he started P20 and finished 18th. That’s not much to write home about. However, he did grab four fastest laps and again, he’s a Penske driver. There are concerns about inexperience. He ran the Indy oval twice in the Xfinity Series and didn’t finish either race. Not to mention, he’s just not very good. But he does have a win this year and he’s a previous Daytona 500 winner. Nobody can take that away from him. At least he’ll have the equipment necessary for this race.
Josh Berry (#4 Ford)
I’m not completely sold on Josh Berry, but there are some positives from last week’s race we should take note of. For starters, he qualified P5 so the car had a good setup. He lost track position once pit strategies came into play, and he may have had a late spin. But he still finished on the lead lap with a top-20 finish. He even managed to lead eight laps with 13 fastest laps. Berry will soon be gaining an understanding of the importance of this track. He’s joining Wood Brothers Racing next year as the new driver for the 21-car. The Wood Brothers team has an affiliation with Team Penske. If SHR brings a similar setup for Berry this weekend, he should have a good day if he can avoid the chaos.
Erik Jones (#43 Toyota)
Jones was mentioned in last week’s preview article. I even acknowledged him briefly in Sunday’s article. I certainly have my regrets about not getting exposure to him. He started P23 last week at Pocono and finished 14th with an average running position of 12th. It’s surprising simply because Legacy Motor Club has been a disaster this year. The organization typically qualifies poorly, but Jones had a strong week at Pocono. Now he heads to a comparable track, and he touts a pair of top 10 finishes at Michigan in the NextGen car. Funny enough, in four races with Joe Gibbs Racing at Indy’s oval, Jones wrecked three times. The one time he didn’t wreck? He finished as the runner-up.