The trade deadline is an exciting time of year. You get the Home Run Derby a couple of weeks before, playoff races start to round into shape, and some of the biggest names in baseball find new homes. These trades can completely alter the fantasy landscape. Playing time is gained. Playing time is lost. New prospects come into the fold thanks to new lineup spots becoming available. More favorable lineup situations are won and lost. There is so much for fantasy baseball managers to keep up with and assess at the deadline. Fear not! This article will help break down the most relevant information that fantasy managers should expect to unfold during the next couple of weeks.
Fantasy Baseball Prep for the 2024 Deadline
5 Prospects Likely to Become Fantasy Baseball Relevant
Victor Mesa Jr.- MIA
The trade rumors are circulating around Jazz Chisholm Jr. Withe Marlins looking to acquire future assets, Chisholm is amongst the most likely players to be traded at this year’s deadline. He has been serving as the team’s everyday center fielder and there are no obvious candidates on the roster to take his spot in the lineup. A trade would open the door for Victor Mesa Jr to be added to the Major League roster. Looking at Mesa’s Triple-A numbers, nothing is super inspiring. He has 13 home runs, a middle-of-the-road batting average, and five stolen bases. However, Mesa’s season can be broken down into three sections. April 5- May 25 when Mesa slashed .287/.360/.470. with a 115 wRC+. May 26 through June 18 when he slashed .182/.229/.364 with a 44 wRC+. Finally, from June 19 through today where Mesa is slashing .306/.352/.490 with a 113 wRC+. Mesa is having a better season than many people realize. Mesa’s season-long numbers are drastically deflated by a rough three-week stretch. There is a strong chance Mesa becomes fantasy-relevant after this year’s deadline.
Colby Thomas- OAK
The Athletics seem destined to trade Brent Rooker (more on that to come later). While the team may start by rotating a variety of fringe MLB guys into the lineup, the most likely person to replace Rooker is Colby Thomas. Thomas has been one of baseball’s biggest breakout prospects this season. Thomas flashed his potential last season hitting 18 home runs and stealing 25 bases, but nobody paid much attention. This season he is striking out less while hitting for even more power. Thomas is already up to 18 home runs on the season. Although his quality of contact metrics do not jump off the page, Thomas is able to generate power in other ways. With a leg kick and an excellent feel for pulling the baseball, Thomas is able to hit more home runs than his batted ball data suggests. His HR/FB% has consistently been above the league average since entering the league which is significant for his long-term power projection. Oakland already promoted their top prospect Jacob Wilson to the Major Leagues and Thomas is not far behind. He is going to get regular playing time in Oakland’s lineup and is worth keeping your eye on in fantasy leagues.
Junior Caminero- TBR
The Rays have finally fallen off the proverbial cliff this season after outperforming their preseason projections the last several seasons. Their struggles have led to them fielding calls on some of their top players including Yandy Diaz and Isaac Paredes. If either Diaz or Paredes gets traded, this directly opens the door for Junior Caminero. Caminero is one of the game’s top prospects and is healthy again. He is ready to contribute at the Major League level and has tons of fantasy upside. With a trade of either player previously mentioned, Caminero could slide in at third base or DH for the Rays and would likely bat in the middle of their lineup.
Jack Leiter- TEX
Even with the slow start, the Rangers considering selling comes as a surprise. The rotation was very clearly built to improve during the second half of the year and the team is only 7.5 games out of the wild card. Alas, here we are and a trade could open the door for Jack Leiter to return to the Major Leagues. Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, Michael Lorenzen, and Andrew Heaney are all free agents after this season. Jon Gray is a free agent after next season. The entire Rangers’ pitching rotation has the chance to be traded in the next couple of weeks. Tyler Mahle is going to come back off of the IL, but Leiter is the prospect who will benefit the most from these moves. Leiter has been solid in 13 appearances down in Triple-A this year with a 3.88 ERA and a strikeout rate of 32.1%. His three starts at the Major League level have not gone nearly as well but if the team is not contending, Leiter’s leash will grow longer.
Drew Romo- COL
Trading for mediocre catchers is never the flashy move to make, but teams do it every season. A veteran presence as the backup catcher is extremely valuable to real-life baseball clubs and that is exactly what Elias Diaz can provide. Diaz has been the primary catcher in Colorado for four years now. While his performance has not been eye-popping, he has been perfectly solid and even made the All-Star Game last season.
This year he is batting over .280 with a strikeout rate of under 20%. His defensive metrics all have been excellent as well which is even more valuable to Major League clubs. With his contract expiring at the end of this season, Diaz is perhaps the Rockies most valuable trade chip. The best part for them is Drew Romo is ready to replace him right away. Romo’s professional career has been inconsistent but he is playing great in Triple-A. Through 69 games, Romo is batting .297 with 12 home runs and provides excellent defense. Playing in Coors Field will only boost his offensive performance moving forward. Romo never profiles to be an elite fantasy asset, but will become relevant in two-catcher formats.
3 Fantasy Baseball Hitters Likely to Lose Relevancy
Tommy Pham- CWS
Tommy Pham is consistently underrated each year in both real-life and fantasy baseball. Pham is one of those guys who sits in free agency each year signing with a team for an under-market deal and then is fantastic. This happened in 2022 when he bounced from Cincinnati to Boston. Again in 2023 when he went from the Mets to Arizona. Now in 2024, the same situation is likely to happen again. Pham has been great for the White Sox when healthy and is one of the more likely players to get traded. The issue is that Pham is far more effective against left-handed pitchers. His wRC+ drops from 145 against lefties to 90 against righties this year. This has been a similar story for Pham throughout his career. On a contending team, Pham is unlikely to get everyday playing time. Instead, he profiles to land as a fourth outfielder who will primarily get into the lineup against lefties. Playing on the short side of a platoon will dissolve any of Pham’s current fantasy value. Although a trade is good for Pham’s chance at getting a World Series ring, it will certainly cost him playing time and reduce his fantasy value.
Johan Rojas- PHI
Johan Rojas generated some sleeper attention in drafts this season. An elite base stealer throughout his Minor League career, Rojas’ stolen base potential seemed undervalued throughout draft season. Sure, the concerns over his ability to hit Major League pitching were valid but he stole 14 based in just 59 games last season. The speed has been great, but Rojas’ has not shown any signs of development offensively this year. His wRC+ sits below 60 and he was already demoted to the Minor Leagues once. His 17 stolen bases still provide Rojas with a bit of fantasy relevancy but that is unlikely to continue. With the trade deadline looming, the Phillies are actively looking to add a right-handed hitting outfielder to their roster. Adding a center fielder to upgrade Rojas’ bat is the primary goal. Any reduction in playing time would be detrimental to Rojas’ fantasy value. It would be surprising to see Rojas maintain his everyday role after the trade deadline.
Max Kepler- MIN
Hopes were high for Max Kepler entering the 2024 season. He was one of my favorite guys to draft in the late rounds and seemed to be flying completely under the radar. Sure injuries have played a part, but Kepler’s 2024 production has been incredibly disappointing. Through 72 games, Kepler owns the lowest walk and home run rates of his career. Kepler’s pull rate has dropped significantly this year while both his whiff and chase rates are way up. With the Twins trying to hunt down the Guardians in the AL Central, it is no secret that they need to bolster their outfield production. Kepler could be on the chopping block as he is already sitting against almost all left-handed pitchers. Any further reduction in playing time would remove any fantasy value Kepler still has.
3 Fantasy Baseball Hitters Entering Better Situations
Luis Robert Jr- CWS
To headline this section, I really could have gone with any player on the White Sox. While the team is likely to sell just about anybody, the most obvious trade candidate is Luis Robert Jr. From a pure raw talent standpoint, Robert ranks with the best in baseball. Standing at 6’2″, Robert pairs elite bat speed with elite sprint speed to create a dream scenario for fantasy managers. His athletic ability is off the charts. This should come as no surprise as he hit 38 home runs with 20 stolen bases last season. Getting Robert out of Chicago would be a dream come true for fantasy managers. Chicago’s offense is the lowest scoring in baseball by over 20 runs. Even more significant is that Robert is a player that feeds off of energy. When the going is good, Robert is all smiles and plays with noticeably more energy. This has been the opposite of how things have been in Chicago this season. A change of scenery will be a welcome sign for both fantasy baseball managers and Robert himself.
Trade Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Brent Rooker- OAK
While Brent Rooker does not have the same charisma as Luis Robert Jr, he will welcome a change of scenery as much as anybody. Rooker is one of the players to benefit the most from Oakland’s slow rebuild. He was given a chance when many teams would have written him off and has turned into one of the best power hitters in baseball. Imagine how much better his 21 home run total would look if he was not stuck playing in one of the worst stadiums for righties to hit home runs in. Oakland ranks 26th in home run park factor for righties while places like Atlanta, New York, and Los Angeles are all well above the league average. Although Oakland has not been as bad as many thought, they still rank 24th in total runs scored this season which is doing no favors for Rooker’s counting stats. Another notable point is how Rooker can be pitched. His zone percentage is nearly three percent below the league average likely due to the lack of intimidating batters around him. Surrounded by better hitters, Rooker will get more pitches to hit, and produce even better results for fantasy managers.
Trade Prediction: Atlanta Braves
Taylor Ward- LAA
The Angels have failed to put things together for another season. Mike Trout did not last long before going down with injury, Rendon unsurprisingly spent a while on the IL, and the team is yet again likely to sell. In a season primarily filled with struggles, Taylor Ward was a bright spot for the team early on. Things have since shifted as Ward entered a massive slump toward the end of May and is yet to break out of it. While this is concerning, you have to wonder how much of it is the dissatisfaction of playing for the Angels. Ward has also been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball over the past two months with his BABIP and HR/FB% dropping significantly despite no decline in his batted ball data. A fresh start on a new team could be just what Ward needs to break out of this slump and return to fantasy relevancy. Joining a contender is bound to lead to better counting stats which is great for fantasy managers. Ward represents an opportunity to buy low in fantasy and potentially reap huge rewards.
Trade Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
3 Prospects I Want to be Traded
Coby Mayo- BAL
This one is easy. The most talented farm system in baseball has to trade somebody eventually. We are already seeing the log jam in full effect with Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad. The infield is not far behind it and could impact Coby Mayo, Jackson Holliday, and Jordan Westburg. With Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn holding down the fort at first base, the team will have to choose between Mayo and Holliday for the fourth infield slot. My vote: trade Mayo. With the ridiculous wall out in left field, I would love to see Mayo play in any other stadium. Baltimore’s park factor for HR to right-handed batters ranks 28th in all of baseball. Preferably, the Orioles just kill two birds with one stone and move Mayo to a more favorable park. This will get his exceptional bat to the Major Leagues faster and prevent us from witnessing some incredibly deep fly balls over and over again. The Orioles are fun and nobody wants to see them trade away their wealth of riches. However, this is the best move for Mayo’s fantasy value both in the present and long term.
Ideal Landing Spot: Toronto Blue Jays
Dalton Rushing- LAD
Dalton Rushing is one of the game’s top catching prospects. While his defense is still a work in progress, there is no denying the upside he has offensively. Last season, Rushing hit 15 home runs with a 146 wRC+ in his first full season of professional baseball. This season he has followed that up with 10 homers already and a 134 wRC+ in Double-A. He combines an excellent eye at the plate with strong pull-side awareness and physicality to crush baseballs. The biggest concern for dynasty managers is whether or not he will stick at catcher. Bat first first basemen or DHs are a dime a dozen nowadays. To become a reliable fantasy asset in that area is much more daunting. With Will Smith locked in at the catcher position and Diego Cartaya in Triple-A, a trade for the ever-contending Dodgers could be the best-case scenario. Ideally, Rushing lands somewhere that is going to exercise the patience to turn him into an everyday catcher. The Dodgers have plenty of prospects to trade, but I would love to see them cash in Rushing for something good.
Ideal Landing Spot: Tampa Bay Rays
Mick Abel- PHI
This one is about a change of scenery as much as anything. Abel entered the year with significant hype. He was sent to Triple-A to start the year with many expecting to see him make his Major League debut later this summer. Things could not be going worse so far as Abel owns a 6.88 ERA currently in Triple-A. Something in the Phillies organization just has not clicked and getting a new voice in his ear might be best for everybody. The former first-round pick is extremely talented and has posted consistently high strikeout rates throughout his time in the Minor Leagues. If a new team can help him limit his walks, he could regain top-prospect status. That seems unlikely to happen in Philadelphia though making now the perfect time for a trade.
Ideal Landing Spot: San Francisco Giants
3 Pitchers Who Could See Their Value Change
Edwin Uceta- TBR
One relief pitcher that nobody is talking about right now is Edwin Uceta. Everybody is focused on where Mason Miller could get traded but nobody is looking at other situations. Reports have been out that the Rays are open to trading some of their top relievers including Jason Adams and Pete Fairbanks. Well, if both arms are gone come August 1, who steps into the closer role? The bold prediction here is that the team shifts Uceta into the closer role and he does not miss a beat.
After bouncing around the league over the past few seasons, Uceta has finally put it all together in Tampa Bay. Still just 26, Uceta owns a 0.71 ERA through his first 12.2 innings and has been absolutely dominant on the mound. The addition of a cutter has transformed Uceta’s arsenal and seems to be having a Jose Alvardo effect on his performance on the mound. The Rays bullpen could look completely different and Uceta stands to be the primary beneficiary. Sure this is a bold call, but I am making it here. In deep leagues, stash Uceta before it is too late.
Mason Miller- OAK
Mason Miller is perhaps the most desired player at this year’s trade deadline. There is no guarantee that Oakland decides to move him, but teams are preparing significant packages to try and acquire him. In his first full season at the Major League level, Miller has turned into one of the game’s most dominant relief pitchers. He owns a 2.27 ERA so far this season and is striking out over 45% of the batters he faces. Miller is everything teams look for in a true closer and could continue getting better. A trade to a contender who will use him in the ninth-inning role would be a huge boost to his value. The only concern is that he winds up on a team that prefers to use him in a fireman role instead of as a true closer. Philadelphia strikes me as a team that could wind up doing that in which case Miller’s 2024 fantasy value could decrease after the trade deadline.
Garrett Crochet- CWS
There is no guarantee that the White Sox trade Garrett Crochet. Crochet has turned into one of the game’s premier pitchers and is under club control through the 2026 season. However, if they do decide to move Crochet, his fantasy value could shift in one of two ways. First is the obvious way. Crochet could move to a team that is going to win more games and provide better defense/run support. Both of these things would be great for Crochet’s 2024 value. The other, and less talked about potential option, is that a contending team makes the move and uses Crochet out of the bullpen. Now, before you call me crazy, the Dodgers could absolutely use Crochet in a swing-man role. The team loves to use pitchers in creative ways and there are plenty of contenders out there who could use a dominant lefty out of the bullpen. This would allow their team to improve this season and set Crochet up for even more success in the future. A move to the pen would be a major negative for Crochet’s 2024 value and is something to be wary of.