Identifying separating factors for players in Fantasy Football can be key in making the right selections on your draft day. Understanding what metrics matter for each position, and who can hit these specific metrics can be a huge factor in separating players. There is a long list of variables that can determine Fantasy Football success for the running back position: health, teammate competition, total touches, offensive line, rushing yard totals, receiving totals, touchdown totals, yards per touch, the combination of these variables and other factors. Today we look at running backs who catch passes, and that specific impact on Fantasy Football
Running backs who catch passes have a higher “ceiling” or more “upside” because they do not score Fantasy Points on the ground but through the air. This can also create a safer scoring “floor”, because a running back can be having a down game for Fantasy scoring rushing but can be picked up by some receiving points. There are running backs who primarily just catch passes, there are running backs who rarely catch passes and there are running backs who have balanced volume both on the ground and through the air which goes back to the variables for Fantasy Football for this position.
A baseline reception number of 50 was used for the data set I looked at from 2020-2023. I will then break down what 50 receptions means for Fantasy Football, and then who can hit this metric in 2024.
The Power of the Pass-Catching RB for Fantasy Football
50+ Reception RBs: 2020-2023
Notes:
- Running backs who caught 50+ passes from 2020-2023 averaged a 12.5 overall Fantasy finish for the position, and 15.43 Fantasy PPG for the year
- 33/40 (82.5%) of the running backs from the sample finished as a top 24 running back for Fantasy Football
- 26/40 (65%) of the running backs from the sample finished as a top 12 running back for Fantasy Football
- 12/40 (30%) of the running backs from the sample finished as a top-five running back for Fantasy Football
Concluding note: catching 50 passes is a near lock to finishing as a top 24 Fantasy running back, and creates a high chance of finishing as a top 12 Fantasy running back. Although the list of variables is long when it comes to Fantasy Football scoring, catching 50+ balls translates to Fantasy Football success.
2024 RB Projections: 50+ Reception Candidates
Knowing the impacts of catching 50+ passes on Fantasy Football, it is now important to project who can hit this metric in 2024. These players can have a boost in their Fantasy ceilings for scoring, and odds of finishing as top 24 / top[ 12 Fantasy RBs in 2024:
LOCKS:
- Christian McCaffrey (49ers): caught 67 passes in 2023, and 85 in 2022. Four seasons of 80+ receptions and two over 100 receptions on his resume
- Breece Hall (Jets): league-leading 76 receptions in 2023. That number may come down with Aaron Rodgers upgrading the passing game, but Hall will still be utilized plenty
- Rachaad White (Buccaneers): 50 receptions as a rookie in 2022 operating as the RB2, and then 64 receptions as a sophomore in 2023 operating as the team’s RB1
- Alvin Kamara (Saints): 75 receptions in just 13 games last season. Four seasons with over 80 receptions on his resume
- Bijan Robinson (Falcons): 58 receptions as a rookie with off-season talk of Bijan being utilized “like CMC” in 2024
- Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions): 52 receptions as a rookie in 2023, with off-season reports he can be utilized more as a pass-catcher in 2024
- Jaylen Warren (Steelers): 61 receptions in 2023 as the established pass-catching running back in the PIT system. I think he regresseS but is likely still utilized in this department
POSSIBLE:
- Austin Ekeler (Commanders): Washington knows what they signed up for. Ekeler has ranged from 51-107 receptions for five straight seasons
- Travis Etienne Jr. (Jaguars): 58 receptions in 2023. Change in weapons for 2024, but Etienne as the workhorse running back remains
- Saquon Barkley (Eagles): Seasons of 57 (2022), 52 (2019) and 91 (2018) receptions in the past. Enters Philadelphia, who will be much more dynamic with Saquon
- Aaron Jones (Vikings): 59 (2022) and 52 (2021) reception seasons recently. The quarterback situation along with injury / off-field issues for other pass-catchers could impact Jones in the passing game
- James Cook (Bills): 44 receptions in 2023. The lack of clarity for the pass-catchers could mean a bump for Cook
- Tyjae Spears / Tony Pollard (Titans): Both finished 2023 with over 50 receptions (Pollard was on the Cowboys). They both will not hit this mark, but one can if they do not eat into each other’s receptions too much
- Rhamondre Stevenson / Antonio Gibson (Patriots): Stevenson was over this mark in 2022 (68) and Gibson finished 2023 with 48 catches. They both will not hit this mark, but one can if they do not eat into each other’s receptions too much
Who’s your favorite dark horse QB1? Drop some names in the comments below and then make sure to check out our 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit for more great rankings and analysis.