Time is a flat circle. Season after season, we’ve seen certain players produce record-setting numbers in career years while others surprisingly disappoint due to one reason or another. The NFL is chaotic, and consequently, so is fantasy football.
Below, I’ve listed three quarterbacks with historical comps to a counterpart from a previous season for each player. To be clear, these are not exact historical comps based on projected 2024 stats but rather general excitement or concerns based on similar offseason trends by those players or their respective teams.
2024 Fantasy Football: Quarterback Sleepers and Busts with Historical Comps
2024 Patrick Mahomes → 2007 Tom Brady
In 2007, Tom Brady was already a legend with three Super Bowl wins entering just his seventh year as a starting quarterback. The season prior had been a down year statistically, though. Brady had passed for “only” 3,529 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2006 after having achieved a then career-high 4,110 passing yards and 26 touchdowns during the 2005 season the year before. It’s understandable considering that Brady’s top pass-catchers in 2006 were a 35-year-old Troy Brown, Reche Caldwell (who?), and tight end Ben Watson. The Patriots quickly rectified this by trading for both Randy Moss and Wes Welker the following offseason. The rest is history, as Brady went on to have a record-breaking MVP campaign in 2007 with 4,806 passing yards and 50 touchdowns.
This coming season will be Patrick Mahomes‘s seventh as a starting quarterback, and he too has already won three Super Bowls. But despite having just won the Super Bowl for a second straight year, 2023 was one of the worst statistical seasons for Mahomes. His 4,183 passing yards and 27 touchdowns were both the second-lowest in a single season for him as a starter, but it’s hardly shocking considering that the Chiefs’ top pass-catchers last season outside of a 34-year-old Travis Kelce were rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco. This past offseason, Kansas City signed Marquise Brown and traded up to select Xavier Worthy, adding a much-needed infusion of speed with two dangerous playmakers.
It’s only fitting that one of the best historical comps for the second-greatest quarterback in NFL history is the GOAT himself. In 2024, with the best wide receiver corps since the Chiefs had Tyreek Hill, I think it’s very possible that Mahomes is in for another 5,000-yard, 50-touchdown MVP season like the one he had as a first-year starter back in 2018.
The importance of rushing production has been well-documented for fantasy production at the quarterback position, so it’s understandable that drafters are currently selecting Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson ahead of Mahomes. However, I think that Mahomes projects for a clear outlier season in passing efficiency with his new weapons and top-five offensive line, which can overcome even the elite rushing production of the aforementioned quarterbacks. Mahomes is my No. 1 quarterback for 2024, and he’s a massive steal at his current ADP (QB4, 49.2 overall on Underdog and QB4, 50.0 overall on FantasyPros).
2024 Jalen Hurts → 2021 Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson produced back-to-back seasons of over 1,000 rushing yards and seven touchdowns each in 2019 and 2020. However, in 2021, the Ravens lost All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley to a season-ending injury in Week 1, and Baltimore’s offensive line finished that season ranked just 21st in the league. In spite of that, Jackson still managed to average over 69 rushing yards per game (nice) prior to suffering his own season-ending injury in Week 12. Even so, his yards per rush attempt dipped drastically from 6.3 and 6.9 yards, respectively, the previous two years to just 5.8 yards in 2021. What was more detrimental from a fantasy perspective was that Jackson ran for just two touchdowns in his 11 healthy games.
Last year, Jalen Hurts had an astounding 16 rushing attempts inside the opponent’s five-yard line, and he converted 13 of those for touchdowns. Many of those were the infamous “tush push” scores, which the Eagles became known for and were exceptionally efficient at given that they had the best offensive line in the NFL. However, this past offseason, All-Pro center Jason Kelce retired. While Cam Jurgens is a capable replacement sliding over from right guard, and Philadelphia still has a strong offensive line overall anchored by elite left tackle Jordan Mailata, the loss of Kelce is still a downgrade for the unit.
On top of that, the Eagles spent significant money in free agency to sign Saquon Barkley to a three-year, $38 million deal. Barkley is by far the best running back that Hurts has played with in his young career. In 2023, D’Andre Swift was tackled multiple times inside the five-yard line, which led to touchdowns for Hurts instead. Swift’s 1.8 yards after contact per rush attempt (YAC/Att) also ranked 25th among running backs in the same range as other plodders like Gus Edwards and Joshua Kelley.
It’s safe to say that Barkley should be able to score more touchdowns than Swift, and the Eagles may feel more comfortable using Barkley at the goal line. While Hurts will still inevitably score some rushing touchdowns and is a strong top-10 quarterback option in fantasy, he’s overpriced at his ceiling at his current ADP (QB2, 41.8 overall on Underdog and QB2, 43.0 overall on FantasyPros).
2024 Matthew Stafford → 2021 Matthew Stafford
Is it cheating to say that one of 2024 Matthew Stafford‘s best historical comps is…himself? Back in 2021 in Stafford’s first year with the Rams and Sean McVay, his 4,886 passing yards and 41 touchdowns were the most he’d passed for since his stellar 2011 and 2012 seasons. With Robert Woods having missed half the year due to injury, Stafford hyper-targeted Cooper Kupp, propelling him to a record-setting season. Even with Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee as his ancillary receiving options, Stafford had an MVP-caliber season that ended with a Super Bowl title. Unfortunately, Stafford missed half the season the following year with a neck injury.
And even with the emergence of Puka Nacua as a rookie last year, the Rams’ offensive line struggled over the first half of the year before coming together in the back half of the season. From Weeks 1 through 8, Stafford had only one multi-touchdown performance in 2023. However, from Weeks 10 through 16, both the offensive line and offense overall improved dramatically. In those final seven regular season games, Stafford had five multi-touchdown performances and was the QB10 in fantasy points per game (PPG).
Heading into 2024, it’s not crazy to think that Stafford and the Rams’ offense as a whole could return to form. In addition to having extended right guard Kevin Dotson this offseason, Los Angeles also signed Jonah Jackson at left guard to bolster the interior of the offensive line. And even though Kupp is in his age-31 season, he would still form a top wide receiver duo with Nacua if the veteran can stay healthy.
Plus, with the retirement of Aaron Donald, the Rams’ defense is the worst it’s been in recent years, which could force more shootouts and pass-heavy game scripts in 2024. While Stafford may not necessarily get close to 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns again like he did in 2021, he’s a great bounce-back candidate and could easily finish as a back-end QB1 in fantasy. At his current ADP (QB19, 151.2 overall on Underdog and QB19, 150.5 overall on FantasyPros), Stafford is a screaming value for fantasy GMs who either want to wait on quarterback or got sniped on an elite quarterback early in drafts.
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Make sure to check out our 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit for more great rankings and analysis.