What a finish to the 2024 Majors! Xander Schauffele may have done the unthinkable and cemented his spot as Golfer of the Year. Given Scottie Scheffler’s unbelievable run, this seemed like an impossible task. But I think it will ultimately come down to how the two perform in the FedEx Cup Championship. It will certainly be an exciting finish to the 2024 PGA season!
Neither will tee it up in Blaine, Minnesota for the 3M Open, a common theme for the best in the game that may still be overseas. However, there are a few making the trip in hopes of earning some extra FedEx points in a weaker field. Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala, Akshay Bhatia, and Billy Horschel are the favorites at TPC Twin Cities, all who happened to play The Open and make the long trip back into the U.S. Let’s take a closer look at the somewhat challenging TPC Twin Cities.
The Course: TPC Twin Cities
The par 71, 7,400+ yard TPC Twin Cities layout will demand excellence off the tee in both distance and accuracy. Most fairways are lined with either thick trees or water hazards, making double bogeys more viable with one missed swing. While hazards are there to penalize the errant shots, a long, thick rough will still lower par chances for tee shots that barely miss the fairway. If tee shots are accurate enough, golfers will have some of the largest greens on Tour to look at.
With the scoring average at 70.1, it’s expected to birdie and eagle chances throughout the course. There are a few short par 4s that the longer players will have an opportunity to drive the green. The par 5s will be reachable by most of the field as well. Expect a lot of fireworks, but beware of some blowup holes as well. Ball-striking will be the most important stat this week, as being accurate and long off the tee will set up a lot of good looks into the green. Putting is important as always, but being a notoriously good putter has not shown much correlation in the past. If Cam Champ’s short game can win here, anyone can. It will truly come down to who can benefit the most off the tee, and give themselves the most birdie opportunities.
Best Bets: 3M Open
Keith Mitchell (+3000)
Prior to the last 2 weeks, Keith Mitchell had been one of the most consistent ball-strikers on the PGA Tour. After back-to-back missed cuts in Scotland and at the weak Barracuda Championship, bettors are left questioning what version of Keith Mitchell will show up at the 3M Open. Will it be the more recent can’t pitch and can’t putt Keith, or the world-class ball-striker that can’t putt Keith?
Given those two options, you would think you could bank on getting a Keith Mitchell who can’t putt. And if this were held at any other course than TPC Twin Cities, you would be correct. However, that’s not the case. For whatever reason, Keith Mitchell’s terrible putter turns hot in Minnesota. In the 4 times he’s teed it up at TPC Twin Cities, Mitchell has gained over 5 strokes on the green all but once. You’d have to go all the way back to last year’s U.S. Open to find Mitchell’s 3rd time gaining over 5 strokes on the green. Weirdly enough, the approach machine Mitchell struggles with his greatest asset here. He has never gained strokes Approaching the Green here, something I expect to change. Mitchell is simply too good of a ball-striker for this to continue on a course with some of the largest greens on Tour.
Given his so-so form, I think 30-1 is a little low for Mitchell’s odds. However, given his history here without the usual stuff with his irons, I don’t mind giving the books a little leeway. If he can combine his consistent iron play with his strong putting game here, don’t be shocked to see Keith Mitchell turn his consecutive Top 5s into a win in Minnesota!
Emiliano Grillo (+5000)
Emiliano Grillo is a very similar play as Keith Mitchell, but you’re getting 20 more points on the odds. He’s a consistent ball-striker with so-so form, and a lot of his struggles come in the short game. Just like Mitchell, though, this has not been the case at The 3M Open.
Grillo has gained strokes approaching the green in 8 consecutive events coming into Minnesota. He’s also lost strokes in the short game in 9 of his last 11 events. However, in the 4 times at TPC Twin Cities, it could not be more different. He’s gained strokes in both Around the Green and Putting in 3 of the 4 tournaments. He’s also gained ball-striking in all 4, leading to 3 fantastic finishes of T2, T3, and T10. You’re getting exactly what you get with Mitchell, who is a golfer you know will hit the ball as well as he always does, but will also make putts he usually doesn’t. That’s a great recipe for success!
I wouldn’t be shocked if Grillo’s odds are much higher by the time the 3M Open tees off. His course history will get people to place bets, but his lackluster recent form should keep him off the popularity charts. Grillo absolutely loves TPC Twin Cities, and he’d be playing here even if he had lifted The Claret Jug. If you want a safer play, he’s 3/4 on Top 10s here and currently sits at +500. That’s about as good as it gets!
Cameron Champ (+15000, Top 10 +1200)
This is a pretty ugly play. I’m talking about the type of play where you can’t even look as you press submit on the bet. The 7 straight MCs before last week’s T50 at The Barracuda do not feel good at all, but there’s a reason I’m giving out such an ugly play.
Cameron Champ has long been this type of player, where any given week he can miss the cut badly, or finish in the Top 10. While he’s been mostly doing the former as of late, the latter is still somewhere inside. Champ has always depended on his distance to help out, as the rest of his game is significantly below Tour standards. Last week’s Barracuda was his first time gaining strokes Approaching the Green in 2024. His putter can sometimes get going, but that’s about it. However, Champ won here in 2021 and had a strong T16 outing the following year. He gained strokes across the board in both events, so there’s something about TPC Twin Cities that clicks for Champ.
Like I said, there’s not much to feel good about this bet, other than his stellar course history. That’s why he’s 150-1 to win it. I think the 12-1 price on his Top 10 odds is worth considering because even if he can’t put it all together, a decent showing can still cash your bet. Given the variability of this play, I reserve the right to act like nothing happened when he finishes dead last. But if he’s towards the top on the weekend, you’ll be hearing from me!