Not every draft pick is going to go according to plan. Our goal here though, is to avoid the ones that don’t. That can be done in a variety of ways and is ultimately one of the keys to success. There are multiple reasons why certain draft picks lead to more disappointment than joy, and the intention is to figure that out prior to the season. While not an exact science, let’s dig into some quarterback busts for the 2024 NFL season.
When reviewing quarterbacks though, it is important to note that whether a quarterback uses their legs truly comes into play here.
Those signal callers that have shown the ability to do damage on the ground have a higher floor and it should be the deciding factor when possible. Unless you are in a league that allows you to start more than one quarterback, things are also a lot more open-ended once you get past the first 12-15 options. At that point, it’s all about upside and we are in streaming territory.
Quarterback Busts for 2024 Fantasy Football
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
It is lonely at the top. Josh Allen is the clear top option at the position and is coming off draft boards, on average, at the very beginning of the third round. There is a piece here that is rooted in the fact that it’s too early to take a quarterback. That is part of what makes Allen one of my quarterback busts for the upcoming season.
There is no questioning Allen’s ability on the ground. It’s also clear that Allen is not going to rush for 15 touchdowns again this season. In each of his other seasons, Allen finished with between six and nine touchdowns. Allen was also a lot more inefficient in 2023, averaging just 4.7 yards per carry.
Those touchdowns overshadowed the fact that Allen threw a career-high 18 interceptions. Additionally, Allen had his fewest touchdown total of the last four years with 29. We do have to allow for the fact that Allen likely sabotaged himself on a few occasions though by picking up the touchdown on the ground.
The other concern with Allen, is who will he throw to? Stefon Diggs is now in Houston and Gabe Davis is on the Jaguars. Dalton Kincaid does have another year of experience, and that will help. Kahlil Shakir will step into a larger role and Curtis Samuel was added. Chase Claypool is an interesting name, but the key here is how quickly Keon Coleman adjusts to the NFL. There is upside and talent here, but it likely won’t happen instantly.
Allen needs a lot to go right not to be a bust, and I do have some questions. It’s a risk I don’t feel comfortable taking this year.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Last year did not go according to plan for Joe Burrow. Between a calf injury and a wrist injury, Burrow only made it through 10 games in 2023. Burrow threw for just 15 touchdowns and 2,309 yards. The fact that Burrow doesn’t make an impact on the ground quickly limits his upside.
When you take the seventh quarterback off the board, who comes with a sixth-round cost, it generally is expected to be a “set it and forget it” situation. In a perfect world, that is the case with Burrow, but we are also drafting him at his ceiling. The Bengals have been cautious with Burrow after last year, but he was fully cleared heading into Training Camp.
Prior to an injury-marred 2023, Burrow had two prolific passing years. After all, having Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as targets doesn’t hurt. The problem though, is that Burrow’s yards per passing attempt dropped last season all the way to just 6.3. After an 8.9 YPA in 2021, this has been an ongoing trend. With only 6.8% of his attempts being greater than 20 yards last year, Burrow has been increasingly slowing his downfield approach over the past three seasons, and that is a concern.
There is far greater upside behind Burrow within the ADP and everything has to come up perfectly for him to return value.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Another top-10 quarterback, based on ADP, that I consider among my quarterback busts is Dak Prescott. It’s debatable how fair some of the criticism that Prescott has previously received is warranted, but he has been a strong fantasy option in the past few seasons.
With just 242 rushing yards and two touchdowns last season, Prescott is another quarterback who is mostly dependent upon his arm. Last season, the Cowboys certainly put Prescott’s arm to good use. He completed a career-high 69.5% of his passes for 4,516 yards and 36 touchdowns. Prescott was efficient with nine interceptions, but it’s going to get a lot tougher this year.
The Cowboys offensive line has taken a step back in talent which will work against Prescott. With Ezekiel Elliot currently sitting atop the Dallas depth chart in the backfield, that isn’t a strength either. While the Cowboys will be forced to lean heavily on Prescott, defenses can also focus on shutting him down. We likely saw the peak of Prescott last year, and this could be a rough year for Dallas.
Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
For the past few years, Kirk Cousins has been a reliable, and successful, option for those who waited at the quarterback position. After tearing his Achilles last year, he signed with Atlanta in the off-season. The Falcons offense couldn’t have been much worse last year, and we know things will be much improved in 2024. That was coming even without Cousins, but the veteran should help to move things along. However, Bijan Robinson will likely be the focus.
Aside from Robinson, Cousins has Drake London and Kyle Pitts as weapons in the passing game to help him acclimate to Atlanta. However, that process will likely come a little slower than normal. Not only is Cousins joining a new team, but he is also rehabbing from a major injury. While Cousins was cleared to Training Camp, things will go slower than in a normal year. Did we mention the fact that Cousins is entering his age-36 season? It also doesn’t help Cousins’ long-term outlook that Atlanta drafted Michael Penix eighth overall.
This isn’t to suggest that Cousins won’t begin the season as the starter, but Atlanta might ease him into action. Should he struggle or have limitations, that would open things up for Penix. The biggest problem though, is that if Cousins struggles initially or is limited, you would be looking elsewhere to begin the season. And with that being the case, he should be avoided in drafts.
Who’s your favorite dark horse QB1? Drop some names in the comments below and then make sure to check out our 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit for more great rankings and analysis.